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Today's Economic Data Docket - US Trade Deficit, FOMC Minutes, 1 Month And 3 Year Bond Auctions

Tyler Durden's picture


Busy economic calendar with two notable bond auctions out of the US Treasury.

8:30: The US trade balance (May): Oil price effect. We forecast that the trade balance widened to -$48.0bn from -$43.7bn in May, mostly due to a rebound in petroleum imports.
GS: -$48.0bn, median forecast (of 73) -$44.1bn; last -$43.7bn.
10:00 JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) (May). The monthly JOLTS report includes data on gross labor market flows, and therefore provides more detail on job conditions than the timelier Employment Report. We will be watching for any reduction in openings and gross hiring, which could help explain recent weakness in payrolls.

11:30 Treasury will auction a $28.0 billion 4-week bill, which will roll over the maturing issue. Last time this priced at 0.000%. Repeat?

13:00 Treasury will auction a new $32.0 billion 3-year note to raise all new cash.

14:00: FOMC minutes (June 21-22 meeting). Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting will probably receive less market attention than usual, given Chairman Bernanke’s post-meeting press conference and his congressional testimony scheduled for tomorrow. The statement released at the time of the meeting and revised forecasts showed a downgrade in the FOMC’s assessment of growth and upgrade of its views on inflation. The minutes may include an explicit discussion of easing options, which the chairman offered in response to questions at the press conference. 

Source: Goldman, SMRA and ZH


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Tue, 07/12/2011 - 08:00 | 1447177 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'13:00 Treasury will auction a new $32.0 billion 3-year note to raise all new cash.'

I'll be interested in this outcome as I'm sure Tyler will be also.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 08:05 | 1447185 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

What's the under/over on the bps movement?  With China bailing out the 'cross-the-ponders, who is [being forced into] buying these Ts and at what price?  And what in the world would hold up equities if funds are being coerced into Treasuries?

Either a 30 bps jump in the yield or another -100 on the Dow today.  My guess, anyway.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 08:16 | 1447212 RichyRoo
RichyRoo's picture

Arent PD's required to soak up any excess?

Only difference is now they cant flip them back to the FED, so maybe yield increases, but flight to safety on Euro-Crisis might make it go smooth

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 08:35 | 1447245 financeguru500
financeguru500's picture

Famous quote of the day

PD to the fed "What do you mean you won't buy my bonds?"

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:06 | 1447328 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I'm sure that's what the PD's agreed to....with their fingers crossed behind their backs; consider it the American analog to the ECB getting punked by private banks on shouldering some junk sovereign bonds.


Tue, 07/12/2011 - 08:08 | 1447196 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And all this money is coming out of the pension funds right?

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 08:09 | 1447197 Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

propbably could have picked a better day for bond auctions. wonder if Bernankruptcy will be mentioning those "green shoots" tomorrow

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 08:11 | 1447200 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Wow are futures going parabolic

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 08:20 | 1447221 youngman
youngman's picture

For me its all the bond auction....euro fail or not....the PM´s only want the interest rate has to rise..and the bid to cover ratio....we will see...I would not buy any at any we will see who is left to buy and I wish I new why they were buying...

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:02 | 1447318 Robslob
Robslob's picture

"I wish I new why they were buying..."

Because a "deal is deal" when you transact with TBTF Banks!

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:16 | 1447368 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

"I would not buy any at any price"

If your a US taxpayer you will be buying. Like it or not.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:38 | 1447462 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

How long has it been since the CRIMEX delivered any silver ? 12 days ? 14 days ?

It does seem like they do not have any of 28MN oz of registered silver they can actually deliver.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 09:43 | 1447480 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

I am sure that the JOLTS will continue the terrible trend of s**t economic indicators.

The central banks collectively owe 13BN oz of silver so we can send them into oblivion by taking physical silver and then the world can have honest money again.

Tue, 07/12/2011 - 10:12 | 1447571 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

 All new treasury auctions will be watched very closely by  markets and Gov.

 Without QE, any problem in auction would resonate globally and probably force new

 Fed actions.

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