Busy economic calendar with two notable bond auctions out of the US Treasury.
8:30: The US trade balance (May): Oil price effect. We forecast that the trade balance widened to -$48.0bn from -$43.7bn in May, mostly due to a rebound in petroleum imports.
GS: -$48.0bn, median forecast (of 73) -$44.1bn; last -$43.7bn.
10:00 JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) (May). The monthly JOLTS report includes data on gross labor market flows, and therefore provides more detail on job conditions than the timelier Employment Report. We will be watching for any reduction in openings and gross hiring, which could help explain recent weakness in payrolls.
11:30 Treasury will auction a $28.0 billion 4-week bill, which will roll over the maturing issue. Last time this priced at 0.000%. Repeat?
13:00 Treasury will auction a new $32.0 billion 3-year note to raise all new cash.
14:00: FOMC minutes (June 21-22 meeting). Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting will probably receive less market attention than usual, given Chairman Bernanke’s post-meeting press conference and his congressional testimony scheduled for tomorrow. The statement released at the time of the meeting and revised forecasts showed a downgrade in the FOMC’s assessment of growth and upgrade of its views on inflation. The minutes may include an explicit discussion of easing options, which the chairman offered in response to questions at the press conference.
Source: Goldman, SMRA and ZH