Today's Economic Data Highlights
Here are the highlights of today's economic data release schedule: Case-Shiller, Chicago purchasing managers, Conference Board confidence, FOMC minutes, ABC consumer poll.
9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller Home price index for June…did it rise further in response to the tax credit? This index rose slightly more than 1% in April and May combined as the homebuyer tax credit had its peak effect on sales of existing homes. The FHFA index had risen a bit more in the March-May period (1.4%, cumulatively) but edged down 0.26% in June. However, because the Case-Shiller index is calculated on the basis of a 3-month average, most economists expect another small increase for June.
Median forecast (of 17): +0.2%, ranging from -0.6% to +0.5%; last +0.47%.
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index for Aug…slowing? Most indicators of industrial activity point to slowing. The main issue with the Chicago survey is how much of that slowing will be offset by relatively buoyant conditions in the auto sector.
Median forecast (of 55): 57, ranging from 53 to 60; last 62.3.
10:00: Conference Board confidence index for Aug…will it edge up? The Reuters/Michigan index moved up about 1 index point between July and August, and we expect something similar for the Conference Board index. As usual, we will look also at the gap between those saying jobs are plentiful and those saying they are hard to get. In July it widened to -41.5 from -39.2 in June.
Median forecast (of 68): 50.7, ranging from 47.5 to 55; last 50.4.
14:00: Minutes to the June 22-23 FOMC meeting…anything new under the sun? Last week’s Wall Street Journal article provided quite a lot of detail on the positions taken by various members of the FOMC. With that already in the public domain, it’s hard to imagine much news coming out of these minutes, but it’s never a good assumption that there will be nothing.
17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…aimless movement. This index edged up another point to -44 in its endless wandering in the depths.
From Goldman's Ed McKelvey