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Today's Economic Data Highlights
Goldman's Ed McKelvey summarizes today's key economic data:
Lots going on today, beginning with some labor market indicators, then industrial and construction data, then Fed speeches punctuated by reports from vehicle manufacturers….
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications rose 2.7%, the fifth consecutive weekly increase. This one was composed of a 1.8% increase in the purchase loan index and a 2.8% increase in the refinancing index. However, this index remains in a very low range.
7:30: Challenger job cuts for Aug….a moderation in the rate of improvement. With the labor market appearing to have stalled, the year-to-year decline may be less than 50%, especially since layoffs a year ago were already improving.
8:15: ADP employment report for Aug…did private hiring slow? The median forecast shows only a trivial increase. Since the last revamping of this report in December 2008, it has tended to understate the net change in private-sector payrolls (by 63k, on average) and has only overstated in two months.
Median forecast (of 35): +15k, ranging from -50k to +55k; last +42k.
10:00: ISM manufacturing index for Aug…slowdown? The industrial data continue to show a weakening trend in the US manufacturing sector, leading most economists to forecast a step down in the ISM’s index.
Median forecast (of 78) 52.7, ranging from 49.9 to 56; last 55.5.
10:00: Construction outlays for July…a decline? Our model suggests a sharp slowing in the wake of a post-tax-credit drop-off in starts and weak fundamentals outside the residential sector.
GS: -1.6%; median forecast (of 50): -0.5%, ranging from -1.6% to +0.5%; last +0.1%.
10:45: Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks…at a Washington summit looking into the effects of foreclosures and vacant properties on neighborhoods. Although Gov. Duke was cited last week in the Wall Street Journal as one of seven FOMC members expressing reservations about the decision to reinvest MBS proceeds, she ultimately voted for it. It is unlikely that this appearance will shed any light on her views regarding this decision given the specific focus of this speech and the lack of a Q&A session.
13:40: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on the US economy…in Houston. Mr. Fisher was also among the seven cited in the Wall Street Journal article. His next turn on the voting rotation of the FOMC comes in 2011.
Late morning/early afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales for Aug…still subdued. Anecdotal reports from the manufacturers suggest a moderation in August.
For total sales: Median forecast (of 40): 11.55mm, ranging from 11.3mm to 11.85mm; last: 11.56mm.
For domestic only: Median forecast (of 16): 8.85mm, ranging from 8.5mm to 9.23mm; last 9.11mm.
8:45: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks….closing the summit at which Gov. Duke is also expected to appear. Mr. Evans is not currently a voting member of the FOMC; his next turn is in 2011.
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What the govt needs to do:
- allow under water homeowners with FNM loans to refinance at current mortgage rates (currently impossible).
Benefits: A) less defaults, B) the govt makes money (lend at 4.5%, borrow at 3%)
- buy S&P futures at the open market between 9:15-9:30
- force the states to sell off all universities and hospitals to raise money to fund their debt (why should the state run a college anyway?)
- give a 20% refund back to everyone who paid taxes in 2009.
Why stop at 9:30?
Has anyone else laughed at the premarket volume this morning? Virtually no one is chasing this robot-generated ramp. And this supposedly has to do with China PMI? This is a broken market if there ever was one. We just keep adding another floor to the house of cards. I've been wrong for several months now (I say "early", but wrong is wrong), but I still firmly believe that the amount of money to be made on the short side will be staggering and come very quickly.
@cnbcsucks, why fight a government thats going to add another trillion to their balance sheet by buying stocks? Whether its right or wrong, ethical or unethical, bad for the country or not, why would you fight making money?
Point taken. I know as a trader, you shouldn't let convictions in your beliefs get in the way of the charts and the indicators. Most people thought Paulson was nuts to short housing in 2006. While I don't put myself on the same plane as him, the point is, who's laughing now?
Current mortgage rates could do with being further down.
Notice no one is reporting German retail sales down MoM and YoY huge, and England Manufacturing Index off huge. All the news stories are pump jobs off China, and act like the rest of the world doesn't matter. How much is the crooked media being paid to be a part of the scam I wonder?
Two months ago I would have said the pump job this morning would result in a huge rally today. Now I'm not so sure they're gonna get a lot of mileage out of this one. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if people sell into it.
ADP -10,000...
Nothing but service jobs, no goods producing jobs at all, this country makes nothing anymore. ADP came in -10k
Yes, but if expectations were -15k, we should be up 3% today...
With ADP a miss futures fell for a minute...now they are higher than before the report. WTF is this all trading on?
Rally on good news
Rally on bad news
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CEOs of major Fortune 500 industrials are all saying the same thing: they are not going to invest capital in the USA as long as we have the anti-business, anti-capital (socialist) leadership in Washington D.C. This is a direct quote "when the jobs come back, we are not going to bring them back in the USA, we are going to bring them back in Asia"
Keep voting Socialist (d.b.a. Democrat) folks, and watch what happens. I don't care for most republicans either, but at least most of them are not god damn socialists.
May I remind you it was either that or Maverick & Palin
I think the proper response is to boycott The Fortune 500 company's that want to offshore the work and profit in the US without as much as employing a single person.
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