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Today's Economic Data Highlights

Tyler Durden's picture


Small business sentiment and more from the Fed….
7:30: NFIB small business optimism index for Sep…back up?  This index rose modestly in August and economists expect it to edge up further in September. But unless the index surprises substantially to the high side, it will remain depressed relative to other indicators of business activity.  Companies have been saying that their number one problem is weakness in sales.

Median forecast (of 4): 89.6, ranging from 87.5 to 90; last 88.8. Update: Print misses expectations at 89.0
11:45: Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig speaks at the NABE conference in Denver
….The topic is “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy: Challenges Ahead.”  Mr. Hoenig has dissented throughout the year and will undoubtedly offer a different view from the one expressed by Messrs. Dudley and Evans a couple weeks ago.
14:00: Minutes to the Sep 21 FOMC meeting…how much more concerned did they become?  The statement following the meeting was remarkable for statements to the effect that inflation is too low relative to the FOMC’s mandate and that the committee was prepared to act to push both the unemployment rate and the inflation rate back towards levels that they deem consistent with their legal mandates.  This encouraged market participants to build in more expectations of another round of quantitative easing, expectations that got a further boost when William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, spoke on October 1.  Against this backdrop, we will be looking to the minutes to answer three questions.  First, what was the logic behind highlighting the low level of inflation?  In particular, did committee members see it as a backdoor way to strengthen the rate commitment language?  Second, how wide was the range of opinions on the wisdom of proceeding with QE2 and on what conditions did they think more asset purchases should be made—a further worsening in the outlook or was merely more of the same enough?  Third, how significantly did the forecasts change?  Near-term growth and inflation forecasts were almost surely marked down, but what about longer-term views?
17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…It remains mired in deep territory, down 2 points in the most recent week, to -47.
From Goldman Sachs


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Tue, 10/12/2010 - 07:57 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

Isn't it today that the state AG's wil formally announce the details of their action to pursue notaries?

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 08:19 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Yes.  Wake me when the shooting starts. ZZZzzzzz.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 08:08 | Link to Comment UnRealized Reality
UnRealized Reality's picture

Another record bonus year for WS. Some things never change. They win.

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 08:09 | Link to Comment Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Here comes the push in the premarket to open green... Cuz the markets NEVER go down.. It's against the rules. QE fo'evah!

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 08:11 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

NFIB basically flat with very bad news for employment prospects. the most telling sentence in the whole report:

"More importantly, the prospects that investment spending and/or hiring will somehow increase profits are low. "

Tue, 10/12/2010 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Prof Gulliver
Prof Gulliver's picture

Actually, they'll extract more than 235 basis points. It'll be like the old-fashioned checking accounts: "You give us your money to buy a T-bond, we give you zero interest and charge you a service fee."

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