Today's Economic Data Highlights
Finally we enter the informal “blackout” period for policy-related FOMC commentary one week ahead of the scheduled announcement from next week’s meeting, which means the Fed chatterboxes finally shut up. Just one speech today with little likelihood of breaking new ground, following the morning's data on mortgage applications, durable goods, and new home sales…Most importantly, no POMO. Futures already reflect it.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications rose 3.2% last week, with applications for purchase loans (+3.9%) and refinancing (+3.0%) both contributing. The level of the purchase loan index remains quite low, however.
8:30: Durable goods orders for Sep…an increase led by aircraft. Aircraft bookings dominate our expected increase, and the wide range of estimates suggests that this is the principal driver of others’ forecasts as well. This is the last report with meaningful content for the preliminary report on real GDP in Q3 to be released Friday morning.
Median forecast (of 76): +2.0%, ranging from flat to +8%; last -1.3%.
10:00: New home sales for Sep...a modest increase? Sales of new homes hit an all-time low of 282k (annual rate) in May and were only slightly above that in July and August (282k). We and most other economists expect a modest increase for September as a drop in mortgage rates appears to have spurred at least a small increase in demand.
Median forecast (of 73): +4.3%, ranging from -6.3% to +21.4%; last flat.
16:00: New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on the national and regional economy…at the University at Buffalo. This is day 3 of a four-day upstate tour including speeches at various universities. The speech itself should have nothing new, but there will undoubtedly be headlines across the tape, also unlikely to contain anything new.
From Goldman Sachs and Zero Hedge