Today's Economic Data Highlights

Tyler Durden's picture

From Ed McKelvey of Goldman Sachs

Retail sales are the key focus, with data also on small business sentiment, business inventories, and the weekly confidence report….
7:30: NFIB small business optimism index for Aug…back up?  The median forecast calls for a reversal of the small drop reported for July, but the bias of forecasts is to the side of a weaker outcome.
Median forecast (of 9): 89, ranging from 85 to 89; last 88.1. - This number came at 88.8
8:30: Retail sales for Aug…respite from the weakness, or more of the same? We are at the upper end of the range of estimates, apparently translating retailers’ reports into a better outcome than our counterparts.  However, this is a difficult report to predict, especially as revisions often have overriding effects.
On total sales, GS: +0.6%; median forecast (of 76): +0.3%, ranging from -0.3% to +0.6%; last: +0.4%;
On sales ex autos, GS: +0.7%; median forecast (of 74): +0.3%, ranging from -0.2% to +0.7%; last +0.2%.
10:00: Business inventories for Jul…another upside surprise?  The median forecast implies a 1.5% drop in retail inventories as manufacturers’ inventories rose 1.0% and wholesale inventories rose 1.1%.
Median forecast (of 50): +0.7%, ranging from +0.1% to +1.1%; last +0.3%.
17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…is that an upward trend?  We have often characterized this index as range-bound between depressed values of -54 and -41 since the spring of 2008.  However, if you squint really hard, you can detect a faint upward trend evident over that period.  For example, over the past 18 months, we have tested the high end of this range three times but the low end only once, and that was more than a year ago.  That said, this survey paints a much more dismal picture of confidence than the two monthly surveys.

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Tortfeasor's picture

Little Andy Sorkin and Big-Tits-with-the-Crooked-Grill are center stage this morning.  Think I'll see what's on Nick Jr.

spekulatn's picture

That's some funny $hit. Well done Tortfeasor.

hdunn2's picture

I think today's release from best buy will give a good heads up as to whether the rally continues or not over the next few days. Their estimates have been revised down going into this morning's call, should be interesrting to see if they miss original but "surprise" by way of beating the revised down numbers. There were a lot of reports over the last few months (recovery summer) that indicated a big slowdown in consumer electronic spending, we will see if this translates into poor bby earnings. Maybe even more importantly will be the holiday season/2011 outlook.

Also Tyler, any comments re: San fran fed's most recent outlook/plunging German confidence?

Gl to all

hdunn2's picture

Gah .60 vs (revised) .44

Jeff Lebowski's picture

Tyler, this may be old news, but here's Geinther's calendar...

Number 1 on Timmy's schedule?  Lloyd Blankfein.  38 times since taking office.