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Today's Economic Data Highlights
Preliminary GDP for Q3 - the datapoint which Fed members said would be critical in determining QE2, also employment costs, the Chicago purchasing managers’ index, and the final Reuters/Michigan confidence read for October. Most importantly, no POMO today.
8:30: GDP for Q3 (prelim estimate)….not much change? The median forecast is for a slight pickup. The issue, as always, is composition, and on this score the report should be decidedly weak. In particular, we estimate that real final sales rose 0.7% at an annual rate (we have no idea what most others are expecting), with real consumption up about 3% (above the median 2.5%) but residential investment off sharply and business fixed investment rising much more slowly than earlier in the year. The trade balance should continue to widen. If the headline prints higher than we expect, the likely reason will be even more inventory accumulation than the $92bn (5.3% annualized) increase expected, in which case this becomes a negative risk factor for Q4 or Q1. Price indexes should be broadly in line with recent trends, with some slowing in the PCE core index relative to its 1.4% year-to-year trend.
On GDP, GS: +1.5%; median forecast (of 83): +2.0%, ranging from +0.5% to +3.6%; last (Q2 third est) +1.7%.
On the GDP price index, GS: +1.8%; median forecast (of 38): +1.8%, ranging from +1.2% to +2.2%; last: +1.9%.
On the PCE core index: GS: +1.2%; median forecast (of 20): +1.0%, ranging from +0.9% to +1.2%; last: +1.0%.
8:30: Employment cost index for Q3…moderation? Increases in this index stiffened up in the first half of 2010, due mainly to a surge in benefit costs. We look for a slight moderation, but without a great deal of conviction.
GS: +0.4%; median forecast (of 57): +0.5%, ranging from +0.3% to +0.6%; last +0.5%.
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index for Oct…moderation? This index has run stronger than the national ISM manufacturing index in recent months, presumably due to the larger weight that auto-related production has in this region. Most economists expect some moderation, as do we.
GS: 57; median forecast (of 60): 58, ranging from 52.6 to 62.2; last 60.4.
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment for Oct (final)…slight uptick? The median forecast is essentially on top of the preliminary reading, which is often how the final reading turns out. The median expectation for inflation five to ten years ahead was 2.7% in the preliminary report, the same as in September and at the low end of the tight 2.7%-2.9% range that has prevailed since November 2009.
Median forecast (of 63): 68.0, ranging from 67 to 70; last 67.9 (Oct prelim).
From Goldman Sachs
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No POMO today? but how am I supposed to make free devalued and useless dollars today?
could always go hooking for johns...yooowza!
what's the going rate???
Charts
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
Good luck!
Looks like gold busted out of your down channel thus far. I think our boy Turd now expects it to run.
Why is everyone assuminhg that a hot GDP number will cause the Fed to do less QE? I think it lets them do more - if the wind is blowing you can let out more string on the kite. Get it rip-roaring - we have a long way to go to catch up with Hong Kong etc - who are well advanced in their asset bubbles, wild speculation and general giddiness. The humans are happy - thats what makes them happy .
If they can issue a better than expected GDP...QE2 won't be necessary, but the market will still be happy with the much better than expected. If they issue an worse than expected, of course QE2 is on like donkey kong. With elections though, it would not surprise me to see a better than expected.
Elections next week. Present administration needs a boost. GDP initial of 2.1-2.3%. Reality revisions later will show 1.5-1.7%....unless someone decides to be honest...which would surprise me.
The smart, the clever , the ones that dont get too caught up in ideology and theories - tend to do well in those wild speculative, asset bubble markets. The slow, the timid, the ideologically neutered - well they tend to be unhappy - unless everyone else is unhappy.
Ahh: this strengthened preliminary estimate GDP for Q3 shows that QE2 is being highly anticipated by all parties. So highly anticipated that many companies appear to have begun spending months ago as if it were a reality. A crisis certainly would result if anything less than a massive QE2 were to be announced as the QE2 needs to pay forward, but also pay back the pre-spending of companies. [tongue in check !!!!]
Of course the lagging preliminary estimate is an easy motivator for QE2.
And QE has not resulted in the desired outcome, will not result in the desired outcome, and can not result in the desired outcome. It is a broken concept, just as most concepts that are paraded about as "science" in the world of today.
People were happy in 1999 - at the height of the bubble. So our rulers will do everything they can to get us back to a giddy, ou-of-control, asset-bubble . If at all possible. Thats the environment that best suits the homo-sapien of today.
GDP comes in at a read of 12.5%.
Anyways, what does GDP even mean anymore? It was crappy even with the "Stimulus Bill". A bunch of people getting paid to dig ditches is counted towards GDP.....so who gives a shit what this number is. Isn't it almost impossible for it to have a negative read?
You have to love people using a false premise as a qualifier for other false premises.
Higher number = BUY, Lower number = BUY. Simple.
No one, meaning human being, is going to be buying anything. Banks, financial houses, Fed and the HFT's (Crow and Tom Servo) will be doing the buying.
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