Today's Economic Data Highlights

For those who still care about the economy, now that it has no bearing at all on the market, which is merely Bernanke's plaything, today we have payrolls, pending home sales, consumer credit, and a horde of Fed speakers, though only a couple of which are apt to provide any insight into this week's decision…No POMO: enjoy it - starting next week the floodgates open.

8:30: Employment report for Oct…another lackluster report.  We expect another lackluster jobs report with setbacks in government—mostly at the state and local level—offsetting most of a modest increase in private sector jobs.  The unemployment rate is unlikely to move much, while wage gains remain modest. Last night’s daily comment provides a more complete summary of our views. 

On total payrolls, GS: +25k, median forecast (of 83): +60k, ranging from flat to +125k; last -95k.
On private-sector payrolls, GS: +75k, median forecast (of 55): +80k, ranging from +20k to +135k; last +64k.
On unemployment, GS 9.6%; median forecast (of 80): 9.6%, ranging from 9.5% to 9.7%; last 9.6%.
GS +0.1%; median forecast (of 55): +0.2%, ranging from +0.1% to +0.2%; last: flat.
 
9:30: Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig speaks to realtors….at a convention of the National Association of Realtors in New Orleans, the theme of which is “On the Rise.”  It’s not clear to us what the title of Mr. Hoenig’s speech is, but he will likely offer some assessment of current economic conditions and, in the process, some perspective on his reasons for dissenting at each of the seven meetings of the FOMC held so far this year.
 
10:00: Pending home sales index for Sep....another increase?  This index increased modestly in July and August following a two-month drop of 32% in the wake of the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit.  Forecasters expect another increase in September.
Median forecast (of 40): +3%, ranging from -1% to +5%; last +4.3%.
 
11:15: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher moderates a panel on “The Founding of the Fed from an International Perspective.”  This is at a special conference marking the 100th anniversary of a meeting at Jekyll Island, GA, where the blueprint for the Federal Reserve System was drafted.
 
13:20: St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard moderates a panel discussion on “From Passage of the Act (1913) until the Treasury Accord (1951)”.  at the Jekyll Island conference.
 
14:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke answers questions from college students….in Florida.  No prepared text for this, but obviously answers to questions may provide him with the opportunity to reinforce the message delivered in yesterday's Washington Post article.
 
15:00: Consumer credit for Sep…another decline?  Outstanding balances have dropped almost continuously since September 2008, interrupted only twice (both times in January) by very small upticks.  Some of this is write-downs; some is paydown by borrowers seeking to repair their balance sheets.  Most economists think the trend continued in September.
Median forecast (of 35): -$3bn, ranging from -$14bn to -$0.2bn; last -$3.3bn.
 
16:15: Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker moderates a panel…also at the Jekyll Island conference.  His topic: Fed history since 1982.

From Goldman Sachs and Zero Hedge

Comments

[Sudden Debt]

9:30: Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig speaks to realtors….at a convention of the National Association of Realtors in New Orleans, the theme of which is “On the Rise.”

the deficit?

[scratch_and_sniff]

Unrelated, but on the subject of bank runs, there were reports earlier that large queue's were gathering outside Spanish banks earlier today...turns out they were queuing for free T-shirts.

[Djirk]

another reason why deflation is not all bad....Hooters or Prada?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-04/hooters-shows-why-deflation-may...

[Sudden Debt]

Tyler, it's been a while since you trashed the BDI, it's crashing for week now and you haven't said a word about it.

[99er]

Charts

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts

Good luck, folks.

[Grand Supercycle]

DOW/S&P500/FTSE daily and weekly overbought charts are now at an extreme level. Similar extreme conditions were detected before the correction started in mid 2007.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

[macholatte]

seriously, does that kind of analysis have meaning anymore?  Doesn't government intervention make such stats meaningless?

Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.
Mark Twain

[GoldenEye]

I see pending home sales @ 12:30.

Why the change its nearly always 10, maybe its bad?

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