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Today's Economic Data Highlights
Several data points today, with data on claims (accelerated by a day) and imports supplementing a twin (trade and budget) deficit day… But since all econ news is now noise, with good news beinbg sold, and vice versa, at 2 pm we get the new POMO schedule, which is really all that matters.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications rose 5.8% with gains almost evenly divided between the purchase loan index (+5.5%) and the index for refinancing (+6.0%).
8:30: Unemployment insurance claims….fluctuating with no clear trend? Initial claims appear to be stuck at around 450k per week, which is where median forecast is this week. Continuing claims have trended down more visibly, as dues the total number of benefit recipients. However, this is mostly if not entirely due to exhaustions of eligibility. The figures will be reported a day earlier this week due to the Veteran’s Day holiday (for the federal government and for fixed-income markets), which could create some noise—verbal if not statistical—if some states have not reported data in time.
For initial claims, median forecast (of 46): 450k, ranging from 435k to 469k; last 457k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (of 14): 4.305 million, ranging from 4.3mm to 4.37mm; last 4.34mm.
8:30: The US trade balance for Sep.…will it ever narrow? Analysts, including us, are predicting that it will, after some significant and largely unexpected deterioration in recent months. However, the large increase in wholesale inventories reported yesterday suggests that there could be some upside (higher-deficit) surprise here, as these inventories often reflect the importation of goods. The Commerce Department assumed essentially no change in the balance of trade in goods in its preliminary estimate for third-quarter real GDP growth.
GS: -$44bn, median forecast (of 75) -$45bn, ranging from -$49bn to -$39.1bn; last -$46.3bn.
8:30: Import/export price indexes for Oct….a surge? The surge in crude oil prices is surely part of the median forecast for a jump in import prices. Dollar weakness should start showing up in prices of other imports as well, though it may be a bit soon for this.
Median forecast (of 54): +1.2%, ranging from +0.4% to +2.2%; last -0.3%.
14:00: The US budget balance for Oct…off to a running start. The CBO estimates that the US Treasury started the new fiscal year with a $140bn deficit. We reckoned a bit less, but CBO is rarely more than a few billion dollars off. The apparent improvement from October 2009 is due to a calendar-related shift in outlays.
Median forecast (of 35) -$140bn, ranging from -$130bn to -$164.9n; last (Oct 2009): -$176.4bn
14:00: QE2 POMO schedule released...Full data here when posted.
From Goldman and Zero Hedge
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Do we think there will be POmo on both Friday and Monday? And what is the best way to play it, get in on the close Thursday or Friday at the open?
Please post the POMO schedule here at 2:01.
POMO=Primary Open Monetization Operations
No, POMO=Permanent Orgasm Maintenance Operations.
Very funny! I like it!
DavidC
How is that different than FOMC, or is POMO part of FOMC?
This is from a marketwatch post, it's so true!
We should all be honored to be witness to the many history making events that continue to occur in the US stock "market":
1. Most number of times something has been "priced in" (QE2)
2. Longest string of quarters with rigged "estimates"
3. Highest number of triple digit losses vanishing "in late trade"
4. Highest number of losses mitigated during final minute miracle "rallies"
5. The highest, criminally inflated average holdings of 401K plan
6. Longest string of weeks where a loss is limited to 1 day only
7. Longest string of weeks where a loss vanishes the next "trading" day
8. Fewest number of "trading" patterns
9. Greatest number of times the "market" has "strugged to recover" at 11AM
10.Highest percentage of times the "market" did not set a low at the close (100%)
11.Greatest number of days the "market" has "rallied" from deep in the red at the open
12.Fewest number of days the "market" has plunged at the open after opening green (0)
Feel free to add to the list, as the greatest FRAUD in history continues to financially rape Main Street, and continue the greatest redistribution of wealth the world will ever see."
8... You don't count the HFT fractals as 'trading patterns'? What, are you the MSM's concept of satan?
Biggest single purchases by one buyers agencies,nice Government men.
Gold at record Highs.
Largest rally on fewest individual buyers.
Biggest Faud and Confidence Trick in history.
Largest Sales of Printing Presses in History.
"Largest Sales of Printing Presses in History."
It's cheaper and easier to have a monkey pressing the zero key on a computer keyboard, paid in bananas.
DavidC
Does anyone else see a flash crash on the JPY down to zero? Hilarious.
ha ha..what a fucking joke..nope, no problems here..
ok, all jokes aside what was that crash in JPY about?
You know that rouge missile that was fired the other day? Well it finally fell from orbiting the Earth a few times and vaporized Tokyo.
Charts
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
Good luck, folks.
The POMO dates get printed up and taped right to the computer screen. That way I know which days my life sureal, and which ones are "normal"