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Today's Economic Data Highlights
From Goldman Sachs
We focus on industrial indicators following this morning’s report on mortgage applications, with import prices thrown in for good measure….
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications fell 8.9% last week, mainly due to a pullback in applications for refinancing. The purchases loan index edged down 0.4% after three increases. At a level of 183.7 (March 16, 1990 = 100), this index is still quite low compared to recent years.
8:30: Empire Index for Sep…what’s under the hood? This index stands first in line of many such surveys on manufacturing activity. The headline increase reported last month was not supported by the detail, which featured sharp drops in both the orders and shipments indexes. Thus, while forecasts tilt toward a small additional increase, the real question will be whether these declines are reversed.
Median forecast (of 43): +8.0, ranging from +2 to +12.5; last +7.10.
8:30: Import/export price indexes for Aug….was last month’s drop in the core index a one-off? This index has weakened recent months, both overall and ex petroleum.
Median forecast (of 51): +0.3%, ranging from -0.6% to +0.9%; last +0.2%.
9:15: Industrial production and capacity utilization for Aug…a small gain? Most indicators, including hours worked in manufacturing, the production components of the ISM survey, and large increases in inventories, suggest that industrial output continued to increase last month.
On production, GS: +0.3%; median forecast (of 78): +0.2%, ranging from -0.3% to +0.5%; last +1.0%.
On capacity utilization, GS: 75.1%; median forecast (of 69): 75.0%, ranging from 74.5% to 75.4%; last 74.8%.
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Wow, the MBA purchase applications was quite steller. Rally on.
one more data ...world liquidity has fallen offa cliff...and has been falling for the last 3 quarters.........commodities n stocks will fall soon....
MBA apps choked...refi's fell over. Either everyone that was going to refi did so, or people are bailing out of housing all together. Perhaps it was the weather.
Empire State 4.14..below consensus, but in range.
Import Prices rise 0.6 or 0.8% depending on who is reporting...
empire index down 3 to 4.1, future index falls 4 to 31.3 - lowest level since march 2009
after dipping on the empire index, equity futures soar (lol) as QE2, 3, 4, and 5 now form pipeline through 2020
So we are just repeating early 2008 now?
Kinda, but not with the expected effect. Stocks can't fall as long as the right people are dumping money into them.
Correlations are now at 1.01 now
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