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Today's Economic Data Highlights
GDP revision, existing home sales, Richmond Fed, FOMC minutes, weekly confidence and micro TIPS POMO as the market prepares to wind down ahead of the holidays yet Korea is looking like last year's Dubai…
8:30: GDP for Q3 (revised estimate)….slightly firmer growth? Data released since the first estimate of third-quarter growth point to an upward revision of about 0.3 percentage points. All of this should show up in inventory accumulation, which appears to have surpassed $120bn (7.3%) at an annual rate. The trade balance should look slightly narrower as well. On the weaker side: a less robust increase in business fixed investment and a slight downgrade to consumer spending.
On GDP, median forecast (of 78): +2.4%, ranging from +2.0% to +2.9%; last (Q3 prelim est) +2.0%.
On the GDP price index, median forecast (of 37): +2.3%, ranging from +1.7% to +2.3%; last: +2.3%.
On the PCE core index: median forecast (of 21): +0.8%, ranging from +0.8% to +1.0%; last: +0.8%.
10:00: Existing home sales for Oct…stabilizing? After the wild swings associated with the homebuyer tax credit, sales of existing homes appear to have stabilized in October at about a 4.5-million annual rate.
GS: median forecast (of 71): -1.1%, ranging from -15% to +3.8%; last +10.0%.
10:00: Richmond Fed manufacturing index for Nov…which way? This report follows two Fed surveys that have sent sharply conflicting messages about the latest industrial conditions. The New York Fed’s Empire index plummeted, while the Philadelphia Fed’s business barometer surged. So the question is whether industrial conditions get better as we travel farther south. The handful of economists who forecast this are split on the answer to that question, with a very slight bias to the high side.
Median forecast (of 8): +6, ranging from -1 to +10; last +5.
11:00: Very modest $2-3 POMO focusing on 7/15/2012 – 2/15/2040 TIPS
14:00: Minutes to the Nov 2-3 FOMC meeting…what range of views and alternatives? As discussed more fully in last night’s daily comment, we will look for answers to three questions: (1) How seriously did the committee discuss policies other than the large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) that were resumed at this meeting? (2) How serious and broadly shared were the concerns about the effects of LSAPs? (3) How much did the FOMC downgrade its formal quarterly forecasts, last published in late June? While various alternative modes of easing and/or broader policy frameworks (such as price-level targeting) may have been discussed, we don’t think they got serious consideration. On the second question, the minutes may reveal that several meeting participants raised concerns about the resumption of LSAPs. Finally, we expect a significant increase in the path of unemployment, quite probably with at least some increase in the longer-run “mandate-consistent” projection (5.0%-5.3% in June), a significant downgrade to growth in 2010 and some reduction in the 2011 range as well (3.5%-4.2% in June). Near-term inflation estimates are also apt to be revised down a couple tenths, but we don’t expect any change in the longer-run 1.7%-2.0% range. See https://portal.gs.com/gs/portal/home/fdh/?st=1&d=10073277.
17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…It’s been stuck between -47 and -45 for the past couple of months, most recently at -47.
From GS' Ed McKelvey
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Korea and Irish news will dominate today and probably be the catalyst for a sell off to 50MA. Not sure traders will want to end up holding the bag into the long weekend (but then again nothing follows any logic these days). Just a guess, but China probably encourage the attack in order to bring the dollar up.
simple solution: 'kill the creditor'
Guns and butter baby
I used to laugh at that in econ 101...now how true it is and not so funny!
Yes, but is it bullish for plated tungsten bars?!?
was on the golf course Saturday, beautiful day,
light wind -temp 60- sunny.
there were 20 cars in the parking lot when in yrs past 150+ would be there on a weekend for peak golf here..
club house was empty except for my 4 some.
gotta wonder if the CNBC green shoots and positive economic news given by the media
has not been able to overcome the fact too many of us are flat broke.
Maybe they were all at the mall. I couldn't get a parking space and left after driving around in circles for 35 minutes. Someone has a lot of money (or credit).
LOL, E pluribus, you are right they have given up golf for shopping, gotta get the last ipod..
I sometimes think the biggest economic problem is my fellow Americans can't get excited about buying electronic toys as we have run out of places to put them and can't afford the monthly fees,, so China crashes with all of the world..
golf is hard and it makes you do stuff...bad if you want to sell to americans
more chinese sterilization? how much pomo today? looks like PM's are taking a lil hit..