Today's Economic Data Highlights

Retail sales will probably provide the most important information in a day that also includes reports on small business sentiment, producer prices, business inventories, consumer confidence, and the final FOMC meeting of the year….There is no POMO today.
 
7:30: NFIB small business optimism index for Nov…back up?  This index has shown renewed life in recent months.  In October, it rose to 91.7, close to the 92.2 level that currently stands as the best since the recovery got underway in mid-2009.  Three of the six economists who forecast this index expect it to eclipse this level in November. The index came in at 93.2 as small business are confident they will be able to subsist on part-time worker hires in perpetuity.
 
8:30: Retail sales for Nov…another sturdy gain.  November appears to have been another good month for retail sales judging from retailers’ reports.  We look for an increase of about ½% in the core component (ex vehicles, building materials, and gasoline).  Vehicle sales were unchanged on the month, but increases in gasoline prices provide an offset in nominal terms.
On total sales, median forecast (of 77): +0.6%, ranging from +0.1% to +1.3%; last: +1.2%;
On sales ex autos, median forecast (of 71): +0.6%, ranging from +0.2% to +1.5%; last +0.4%.
 
8:30: Producer price index for Nov…more energy on top of a core pay-back? Our estimate of a 0.4% increase in the core (ex food and energy) index reflects an assumption that vehicle prices will bounce back after having pulled the core index down even more sharply last month.  Underneath this, we do not expect significant price pressure in the core components.  The headline index includes another month of seasonally strong gasoline prices.
On headline, median forecast (of 76): +0.6%, ranging from +0.2% to +1.2%; last +0.4%.
On core, median forecast (of 73): +0.2%, ranging from -0.1% to +0.8%, last -0.6%.
 
10:00: Business inventories for Oct…another significant increase?  The median forecast implies a 0.3% increase in retail inventories given the increases already reported for manufacturing (+0.9%) and wholesale (+1.9%).  This would be the smallest increase in six months for that component.  Risks lie to the side of a larger increase.
Median forecast (of 41): +1.0%, ranging from +0.1% to +1.5%; last +0.9%.
 
14:15: FOMC statement…no major changes.  The statement following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday is likely to be the least interesting of the year.  We expect only a very modest “lean” in the direction of better data.  Kansas City Fed President Hoenig will probably cast his eighth consecutive dissent against the current policy stance.  As discussed more fully in last night’s daily comment, the first couple of FOMC meetings of 2011 look likely to be similarly uneventful, with the main question the number of dissents in favor of a tighter policy stance (we expect one or two).  See https://portal.gs.com/gs/portal/home/fdh/?st=1&d=10183449.
 
17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…It’s been stuck between -47 and -45 since mid-September, last at -45.

Compiled using Goldman data

Comments

[TexDenim]

Data has nothing to do with what this market does.

[velobabe]

nice mind†

[papaswamp]

NIFB came in at a weak +1.5.

With the most telling Earnings trend declining as businesses cut prices to try to keep customers.

"PROFITS AND WAGES

Reports of positive earnings trends fell four points in November, registering a net negative 30 percent. Still, far more owners report that earnings are deteriorating quarter on quarter than rising. Part of this is due to price cutting, which is fading in frequency as the economy continues to grow. Of those reporting lower earnings compared to the previous three months, 56 percent cited weaker sales, five percent blamed rising labor costs, seven percent higher materials costs, five percent higher insurance costs and nine percent blamed lower selling prices. Seven percent blamed higher taxes and regulatory costs. Reports of higher worker compensation continued to edge up while reports of compensation cuts continued to fade. Seasonally adjusted, a net eight percent reported raising worker compensation, double October’s reading and 10 points better than February’s record low reading of negative two percent."

[99er]

Charts

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts

Good luck, folks.

[SheHunter]

No POMO today but yesterday's settles today so any no POMO effect may take place Wed.  Wednesdays can also be rock and roll on opex weeks so maybe just maybe the market will see some volumn and be (less) dead tomorrow.