Today's Economic Data Highlights
From Goldman Sachs
Lots going on today – PPI, claims, current account balance, TICS, Philly Fed, and some FX testimony…
8:30: Producer price index for Aug…another energy-led increase? We expect energy price increases (lack of seasonal weakness) to dominate an otherwise benign report on producer prices. So, apparently, do most other economists, though the range of estimates on the headline is wide.
On headline, GS: +0.5%; median forecast (of 76): +0.3%, ranging from +0.2% to +1.2%; last +0.2%.
On core, GS: +0.1%; median forecast (of 72): +0.1%, ranging from -0.1% to +0.3%, last +0.3%.
8:30: Unemployment insurance claims….was last week’s drop a fluke? Some have claimed that the Labor Day holiday was primarily responsible for last week’s drop in initial claims. Although some states failed to report on time to be included in the data, the Labor Department said in effect that the estimates plugged in for these missing observations were reasonably good. However, that doesn’t settle the question of whether the holiday biased down the number of new applications. This week’s report should help sort that out. Meanwhile, we will see whether the total number of claimants receiving benefits, including those on extended and emergency programs, remains below 10 million. None of the figures applies to the survey week for the September employment report. That will be next week for initial claims and the following two weeks for the other figures.
For initial claims, median forecast (of 46): 459k, ranging from 435k to 476k; last 451k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (of 12): 4.464 million, ranging from 4.43mm to 4.495mm; last 4.478mm.
8:30: Current account balance for Q2…a wider deficit? The sharp widening already reported in the trade deficit should show up in a wider deficit on current account as well.
GS: -$122bn; median forecast (of 39): -$125bn, ranging from -$119bn to -$130bn; last -$109.0bn.
9:00: TICS long-term inflows for July…
Median forecast (of 6): +$45.7bn, ranging from +$30bn to +$55bn; last +$44.4bn.
9:30: Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke opens hearings on mortgage disclosure…in Chicago. This has by now become a routine in hearings being held across the nation.
10:00: Philadelphia Fed business index for Sep…Last month this index fell sharply into negative territory, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing activity, with similar movements in indexes of orders and shipments. If yesterday’s results from the Empire index are any indication, this report is apt to show some signs of stabilization but not reverse altogether the sense that industrial activity is losing momentum.
GS: +3; median forecast (of 57): +0.5, ranging from -7.2 to +5.0; last -7.7.
10:00/14:00: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testifies….on the Treasury’s foreign exchange report, before the Senate Banking Committee in the morning and on China’s foreign exchange policy before the House Ways and Means Committee in the afternoon. There is obviously a lot of overlap between the two hearings. Intervention by the Bank of Japan will likely come up.
16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet….The size of the Fed’s balance sheet remains a hair below $2.3 trillion as repayments of principal on agency debt and MBS is now being reinvested into US Treasuries. This shift will show up slowly over time, as the amounts per week are in the $3-$4bn neighborhood.