Today's Economic Data Highlights

After the mortgage applications data we have CPI, a couple of reports on industrial activity, and one on builder sentiment….
 
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications fell 2.3%, due mainly to a 5% setback in purchase loan applications, the first in three weeks.  At 200.3 (March 16, 1990 = 100), this index is quite low, but an upward trend from the middle of this year is still intact.  Applications for refinancing edged down 0.7%; they have fallen for five consecutive weeks. With morgage rates passing 5% look for this index to plummet contrary to "reverse psychology" expectations that rising rates will prompt another round of refinancing.
 
8:30: Consumer price index for Nov….We expect food and energy to push the headline index up while the core index rises only modestly.
On headline, GS: +0.28%; median forecast (of 79): +0.2%, ranging from flat to +0.3%; last +0.23%.
On core, GS: +0.07%; median forecast (of 77): +0.1%, ranging from flat to +0.2%; last -0.01%.
 
8:30: Empire Index for Dec…was that drop a fluke?  This index fell sharply in November, setting off concerns that industrial activity might be flagging.  In the end, it proved to be the outlier, and economists therefore expect some serious mean reversion in today’s report.
Median forecast (of 57): +5, ranging from -10 to +15; last -11.14.  
 
9:00: TICS net inflows for Oct…
Median forecast (of 4): +$51bn, ranging from +$40bn to +$75bn; last +$81.7bn.
 
9:15: Industrial production and capacity utilization for Nov…role reversal?  Last month’s report of no change in industrial output for October masked offsetting moves in utilities (down 3.4%) and manufacturing (+0.5%).  This month, we expect a smaller increase in manufacturing (reflecting disappointing hours worked in the sector) but a rebound in utilities.
On production, median forecast (of 78): +0.3%, ranging from -0.1% to +0.8%; last flat.
On capacity utilization, median forecast (of 68): 75.0%, ranging from 74.8% to 75.5%; last 74.8%.
 
10:00: Housing market index for Dec….still at a very low level?  This index has wallowed for the past three and a half years in a sub-20 range that seemed unthinkable prior to the crash that occurred earlier in this decade.  Only once in that period did it poke briefly above this level.  That was in the aftermath of the homebuyer tax credit.  Nobody expects a change in this lassitude.
Median forecast (of 51): 16, ranging from 15 to 18; last 16.

11:00: POMO resumes... with $6-8 billion in 12/31/2014 – 5/31/2016 bond repurchases. Should rates continue widening expect another $2-4 billion in Fed SOMA losses.

Compiled using Goldman data

Comments

[johngaltfla]

Mortgage apps y-o-y are telling the tale of the tape. There have been only 3 weeks the entire year where there was an increase in the unadjusted purchase index over 2009. The inventory number is so much larger than the banksters would dare admit...

[99er]

Charts

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts

Good luck!