Today's Economic Data Highlights
After this morning’s report of a sharp setback in mortgage loan applications, we have the third round on third-quarter GDP and sales and prices of existing homes….There is a modest $1.5-$2.5 billion POMO later.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications tumbled 18.6% last week as refinancing applications plummeted 24.6%. The purchase loan index also lost ground, down 2.5% last week following a 5% drop the week before.
8:30: GDP for Q3 (third estimate)….even more inventory accumulation? Large upward revisions to inventory data for September suggest that real GDP more rapidly than the 2.5% annual rate now posted. In Goldman's latest daily comment, the firm announced that it - like many others—expects this figure to be revised up, to 3%. This is unusual for the last monthly round on a GDP estimate.
On GDP, GS: +3.0%; median forecast (of 71): +2.8%, ranging from +2.5% to +3.0%; last (Q3 second estimate) +2.5%.
On the GDP price index, GS: +2.3%; median forecast (of 32): +2.3%, ranging from +1.6% to +2.3%; last: +2.3%.
On the PCE core index: GS: +0.8%; median forecast (of 17): +0.8%, ranging from +0.7% to +1.0%; last: +0.8%.
10:00: Existing home sales for Nov…stable or up? There’s a strong sentiment out there that sales of existing homes jumped in November. If this is due to the surge in pending home sales reported earlier, it is a bit premature to see those translate into actual closings.
Median forecast (of 70): +7.1%, ranging from -4.1% to +17.4%; last -2.2%.
10:00: FHFA housing price index for Oct…another decline? This index has now fallen four months in a row, reinforcing the fact that the homebuyer tax credit, which expired this past spring, temporarily boosted prices. Another decline is likely for October.
Median forecast (of 13): -0.2%, ranging from -0.4% to +0.1%; last -0.7%.
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