Today's Economic Data Highlights

Trade, PPI, claims, Chairman Bernanke on small business lending, and the Fed’s balance sheet…

8:30: The US trade balance for Nov…will it stabilize?  We estimate little net change in the trade deficit after a significant narrowing in October; the median forecast anticipates a partial reversal of this move.  Imports have been abnormally high in recent months.  However, the stall in wholesale inventories reported a couple of days ago for November suggests that risks lie to the side of a further improvement, given that these inventories are often where some imports first show up.
Median forecast (of 71) -$40.5bn, ranging from -$43.5bn to -$37.5bn; last -$38.7bn.
 
8:30: Producer price index for Dec…energy and food drive the headline up again.  Gasoline prices have been increasing at a time of the year where they normally go down, and food prices have also been rising.  As a result, we expect the headline index to rise significantly.  The core index should remain relatively tame.
On headline, median forecast (of 75): +0.8%, ranging from +0.2% to +1.2%; last +0.8%.
On core, median forecast (of 73): +0.2%, ranging from +0.1% to +0.3%, last +0.3%.
 
8:30: Unemployment insurance claims….steady at a lower rate?  After the post-Christmas rebound, the median forecast expects initial claims to stay put at last week’s level, consistent with the general perception that conditions in the labor market are slowly improving.  While we agree with that perception, there’s a risk that claims could rise a bit further this week, as the post holiday processing delays continue to work out.  (This was an issue last year, according to comments by Labor Department officials at the time.)   The data for extended/emergency programs should show an increase as the data to be reported today, for the week ending December 25, reflects the extension of these programs enacted a week earlier.
For initial claims, median forecast (of 46): 410k, ranging from 380k to 420k; last 409k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (of 12): 4.088 million, ranging from 3.95mm to 4.15mm; last 4.103mm.
 
13:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on small business lending…He is part of a panel discussing the topic of “Overcoming Obstacles to Small Business Lending” at a forum sponsored by the FDIC.  There is no prepared text, but there will be questions and answers.
 
16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet….The balance sheet continues to increase in size, albeit at an uneven pace from week to week.  It was $2.44trn in the week ending Wednesday, Jan 5.  We expect it to reach $2.9trn by about mid-2011 on the assumption that the FOMC sticks with its plan to increase its holdings of longer-term assets by $600bn from November 2010 through mid-2011.

via GS and ZH

Comments

[Tense INDIAN]

Tyler ...i think u need to add Toby Connor's http://www.goldscents.blogspot.com/

in ur "Zero Hedge Reads" list ...and i think u can remove "Gains Pains Capitals".....he has nothing new to give......

[pauldia]

from Harvey Organ, a raid today??

The only two commodities not to set the world on fire was gold and silver.  Today , our buffoon Dennis Gartman indicated that he was now out of his gold holdings denominated in pounds.  This gentlemen is a well informed and I guess the bankers told him that there is going to be a serious raid today or tomorrow.  Actually, I am quite happy that he is out as this gentleman literally has made zero dollars on his gold and silver holdings for the past 12 years.  And he gets invited back on CNBC to tell his version on the action of the precious metals.  The bankers tell him that there is going to be a raid as his selling accentuates the raid.  That is why he is  usually right on the sell side.  They never tell him when they are going to buy back their shorts.  The bankers do not need Gartman competing with them on the buy side.  Gartman generally stays on the sidelines and thus has never participated on the huge rise in gold and silver.

[Tic tock]

we're all developing countries now, apart from NY, DC and a few small city states