Today's Economic Data Highlights

Claims, Philly Fed, existing home sales, index of leading indicators, and the Fed’s balance sheet….
 
8:30: Unemployment insurance claims….correction?  …down to a level many, including us, believe to be more indicative of gradual improvement.  That’s the expectation of most economists after a two-week runup from 391k to 445k.  The earlier reading, during the Christmas week, was probably too low, and the resurgence appears to be a payback for that.  But this week’s reading, which covers the reference week for the January payroll survey, also has Martin Luthur King Day.  So it may be another week or two before we can be sure we’re beyond holiday distortions.
For initial claims, median forecast (of 49): 420k, ranging from 400k to 462k; last 445k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (of 14): 3.985 million, ranging from 3.87mm to 4.059mm; last 3.879mm.
 
10:00: Philadelphia Fed business index for Jan…steady as she goes?  The December index was originally reported at +24.3 but was revised to +20.8 in the annual recalculation of seasonal factors.  From this lower, but still robust, level, the median forecast is for no change.
Median forecast (of 54): +20.8, ranging from +12.5 to +25; last +20.8.
 
10:00: Existing home sales for Dec…another increase?  Expectations tilt toward another gain in home sales (we have one of the stronger ones) in the wake of increases of 10.1% and 3.5% for October and November, respectively.
Median forecast (of 72): +4.1%, ranging from -3.9% to +8.3%; last +5.6%.
 
10:00: Index of leading indicators for Dec…back to the more moderate increases.  After a big pop driven by the ISM’s supplier deliveries index, the index of leading indicators should post a smaller, but still solid increase this month.  The biggest positive this month comes from the yield curve (+0.33bp), with smaller contributions from claims (+14), stock prices (+13), the Michigan expectations index (+8), and housing permits (+5).  Supplier deliveries and the real money stock are the only notable negatives, each worth just under 10bp.
Median forecast (of 57): +0.6%, ranging from +0.4% to +1.2%; last +1.1%.
 
16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet….The balance sheet continues to increase in size, albeit at an uneven pace from week to week.  It was $2.47trn in the week ending Wednesday, Jan 5.  We expect it to reach $2.9trn by about mid-2011 on the assumption that the FOMC sticks with its plan to increase its holdings of longer-term assets by $600bn from November 2010 through mid-2011.

via GS

Comments

[Sudden Debt]

IF you first drop over 50% and then have a "recovery" of 4% on anything, I wouldn't call it a recovery.

It would have been great if we where at 100% and then had a 4% rise on anything.