Today's Economic Data Highlights

Tyler Durden's picture

Housing starts, PPI, industrial production, and the FOMC minutes….Small 05/15/2021 – 11/15/2027 POMO for $1.5-$2.5 billion.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications fell 9.5% as indexes for both refinancing and purchase loans gave ground (-11.4% and -5.9%, respectively).
8:30: Housing starts and permits for Jan…opposite moves?  The story this month starts with permits, which surged in December in advance of new building codes in several states.  Although we do not forecast permits on a regular basis, the forecasts of significant declines offered by others look quite sensible to us.  The expectation of an increase in starts results in part from the prior surge in permits and is not a view we hold with a great deal of confidence.  It certainly does not represent a fundamental change in an industry saddled with excess supply.
On starts, median forecast (of 76) +1.9%, ranging from -10.2% to +11.5%; last -4.3%.
On permits, median forecast (of 56) -10.9%, ranging from -24.2% to -2.7%; last +16.7%.
8:30: Producer price index for Jan…energy and food drive the headline up again.  Rising prices of both gasoline and food point to another surge in the headline index.  The core index should be more muted, though up more than its CPI cousin, as goods prices reflect the surge in commodity prices more than those of services.
On headline, median forecast (of 74): +0.8%, ranging from +0.3% to +1.4%; last +1.1%.
On core, median forecast (of 71): +0.2%, ranging from +0.1% to +0.4%, last +0.2%.
9:15: Industrial production and capacity utilization for Jan…a decent gain?  Although payroll gains in January were disappointing overall, the manufacturing sector managed to add 49,000 jobs.  This plus an uptick in the workweek in that sector suggests another decent increase in industrial output, despite the poor weather.
On production, median forecast (of 80): +0.5%, ranging from -0.5% to +0.9%; last +0.8%.
On capacity utilization, median forecast (of 66): 76.3%, ranging from 75.4% to 78.0%; last 76.0%.
14:00: Minutes to the Jan 25-26 FOMC meeting
…not as boring as the statement.  Although the meeting itself did not produce any material surprises, the financial markets will nonetheless read these minutes carefully.  As discussed in yesterday’s comment, the committee probably marked up its forecast for near-term growth.  We’ll also be interested in whether more members feel that the longer-run sustainable level of unemployment has moved up and in any color on the range of views about future policy. 

Via GS Data

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Michael's picture

The filthy animals at FOX News are on notice. Their coverage of the CPAC Winner, Dr Ron Paul is documented character assassination.
This dirty trick is a new low for FOX News. This blatant attempt to smear Dr. Paul was deliberate.

1. Law .
a. defamation by written or printed words, pictures, or in any form other than by spoken words or gestures.
b. the act or crime of publishing it.
2. anything that is defamatory or that maliciously or damagingly misrepresents.

1. defamation; calumny: rumors full of slander.
2. a malicious, false, and defamatory statement or report: a slander against his good name.
3. Law . defamation by oral utterance rather than by writing, pictures, etc.
–verb (used with object)
4. to utter slander against; defame.
–verb (used without object)
5. to utter or circulate slander

FAUX should lose their broadcast license as this is a clear violation! Ron Paul is lawyering up on this one. At the very least FAUX should be forced to make a public apology to Dr. Paul, his supporters and CPAC. The individual(s) who actually pulled the trick should be exposed and fired! and then criminally charged! Bastards!

Fox News Ron Paul CPAC Lies Exposed

From the original FOX announcement of CPAC Winner, notice the same announcer from 2010 is not wearing a lanyard around his neck in the 2011 announcement.

Busted:Fox News CPAC Ron Paul Video Deception

I am not going to let those filthy animals at FOX News get away with this blatant character assignation of the good Doctor. They will pay for their libel and slander. People over there will be fired and the fines will be huge. Dr Paul may even wind up owning that network.

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The unadjusted permits print came in at 35.9 for January.  This is the worst print in the entire history of this data, going back to 1959.  It is 5% worse than the previous all time low in January 2009.