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Today's Economic Data Highlights
A heavy day for data, with readings on consumer spending and spending, industrial activity, and construction. Also, a couple of Fed speeches on tap….
8:30: Personal income and outlays for Aug....small increases in real terms. The jobs report for August suggests a modest gain in personal income, while retail and auto sales data imply a similar outcome for spending. The PCE core index appears likely to post an increase well above the +0.04% reading on the core CPI, as it gives more weight to medical costs and less to shelter.
On income….median forecast (of 77): +0.3%, ranging from +0.2% to +0.6%; last +0.2%.
On spending....median forecast (of 79): 0.3%, ranging from +0.2% to +0.5%; last +0.4%.
On PCE core price index: median forecast (of 57): +0.1%, ranging from flat to +0.2%; last +0.11%.
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment for Sep (final)…slight uptick? This index fell unexpectedly in the preliminary survey, and forecasts are biased to expect a small recovery of that decline. The median expectation for inflation five to ten years ahead remains in a tight 2.7%-2.9% range (since November), with the latest reading at 2.8%.
Median forecast (of 64): 67.0, ranging from 65.5 to 68.5; last 66.6 (Sep prelim).
10:00: ISM manufacturing index for Sep…slowdown? Despite increases in the Chicago index and in our own analyst index, we look for a setback in the ISM’s national survey of purchasing agents in the manufacturing sector. Most Fed surveys point in this direction as does the detail from the August ISM survey, specifically the virtual disappearance of the difference between new orders and inventories.
Our ISM call for the September report is only modestly below the median forecast. We are expecting this index to move below 50, but that is a 3-6 month view, not our call for today’s figure.
GS: 54; median forecast (of 83) 54.5, ranging from 51.5 to 57, last 56.3.
10:00: Construction outlays for Aug…a decline? We likewise look for a small setback in construction, with the decline concentrated in private residential projects.
GS: -0.4%; median forecast (of 54): -0.4%, ranging from -1.0% to +1.5%; last -1.0%.
10:30: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks at a monetary policy conference in Rome….The conference is on “The Future of Monetary Policy,” and it is hosted by the Bank of Italy, the Banque de France, and the Einaudi Institute for Econoims and Finance. Mr. Evans’ next turn on the voting rotation of the FOMC comes in 2011.
Late morning/early afternoon: Lightweight vehicle sales for Sep…still subdued. Anecdotal reports from the manufacturers suggest little change in September from the low levels that have prevailed for the last half year or so.
For total sales: GS: 11.7 million; median forecast (of 45): 11.5mm, ranging from 11.1mm to 11.9mm; last: 11.46mm.
For domestic only: GS: 8.4mm; median forecast (of 17): 8.85mm, ranging from 8.4mm to 8.9mm; last 8.66mm.
13:40: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on the US economy, recovery, and monetary policy.…in Vancouver. His next turn on the voting rotation of the FOMC comes in 2011.
Ed McKelvey of Goldman Sachs
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Check EURIBOR!
Why did it spike today, is a euro bank ready to implode?
No fear, numbers are going to be great. Recovery is on full track. /Sarcasm set on highest level.
Gold @ 1319...something's gotta give folks, this is not going to end well, we know that, let's plan/trade accordingly!
"something's gotta give folks"
Karl, is that you?
Well, there will be at least one semi-good number among all the bad. And this number, predictably, will be spun out of control, and the market will go up as a result.
Great. I hope they ramp if over 1150 again today, so that we can see EPIC FAIL part duex.
Where the hell is the EPIC FAIL meter........hmmmmm....a way to guage when the safety valve finally reaches it's blow off point
I try to talk to family about taking some preventative measures to ease the pain, they laugh at me up until last year when I gave up. Now they ask me for direction about good places to park $$, I tell them silver was a 10 bagger from the time I mentioned it some time ago, jaws hit the floor. Tough shit I say.
Meanwhile, back in bizarro world
I'm a little surprised the futures are green today seeing how Ireland is coming apart at the seams. The parabolic blow off continues....
why is it that whilst we sleep in the US ag and au do their respective "thang", then approaching 9-10am..kerplunk? i'm up at 5-6 am every morning and notice that. why is that? insights? recs?
seems like a rigged market huh?
www.gata.com
maybe start there
spot prices that is..
All reports will be positive. All speeches will be uplifting. The peasantry will sing joyfully and dance in the streets.
"Also, a couple of Fed speeches on tap…"
Well some of us already got transcripts of the speeches last week. LOL!
How come jobs report is delayed one week to Oct 8? What up MoFo!
Let's hope the disconnect continues and "good" news won't make the markets tank.
Sometimes the daily derivative is hard to figure.