Today's Economic Data Highlights - ADP, POMO
A couple of readings on the jobs report following the latest weekly reading on mortgage applications, then Secretary Geithner… Of course, the only relevant thing is that the Fed will inject another $2 billion of high beta stock purchasing power via today's second consecutive POMO.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications edged down 0.2%, but the purchase loan index rose 9.3%. At a level of 198.7 (March 16, 1990 = 100), it’s still low in absolute terms, but that’s better than at any time since just after the homebuyer tax credit expired at the end of April.
7:30: Challenger job cuts for Sep….should continue to be substantially lower. Announced cuts have been running down a bit more than 50% on a year-to-year basis. The rate of decline may moderate a bit, but it should remain substantial.
8:15: ADP employment report for Sep…will it return to positive territory? The median forecast anticipates a slight increase in this indicator, which has understated the net change in the official count of private-sector payrolls consistently since December 2008, with an average miss of 61,000. So the median forecast of +20k would imply something like an 80k increase in Friday’s report, not far from the +75k median currently shown for that indicator. We don’t forecast the ADP report, which itself is a forecast, but our +25k expectation for Friday’s report obviously implies something weaker. That said, this is but one of many variables, and one whose reliability has not been very high.
Median forecast (of 37): +20k, ranging from -44k to +75k; last -10k.
9:00: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks….at the Brookings Institution. The session is titled “A Conversation with Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner,” so most anything could come up.