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Today's Economic Data Highlights: All Eyes On The NFP

Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/04/2011 08:27 -0400



 

8:30: February employment report--a big improvement, but how big? The February report on nonfarm payrolls should look much better than its predecessor.  Goldman expects a gain of 200,000 jobs, with risks skewed to a bigger increase.  The two key issues are 1) the underlying trend in payroll growth—we think it’s at least 150,000 and perhaps stronger, 2) the extent of the weather-related “payback” in the report—most likely in the neighborhood of 50,000 or a bit more.

Markets clearly expect a strong outcome.  The “consensus” forecast for nonfarm payrolls has moved up considerably over the past week and is now just below our own.   Yesterday’s price action suggests that market participants have positioned for a strong release. 

With all the attention on payrolls, the unemployment rate has flown under the radar.  Yet it contains as much or more significance for the outlook, particularly given its prominence in the Fed’s “dual mandate”.  Goldman's analysis suggests a close call between a 9.0% and 9.1% unemployment rate; a slight uptick is typical following very large month-on-month declines.

Nonfarm payrolls:  GS +200,000 (risks to upside), consensus 197,000.
Unemployment rate:  GS and consensus 9.1%
Average hourly earnings: GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%.
 
10:00: Factory orders...a decent gain.  This report will be a market afterthought, but should show a moderate gain given the headline increase in durables orders. Consensus: +2.0%.

11:00: POMO. Today's POMO is a meager $1-2 billion of across the curve TIPS purchases. Due to its size it will not be a factor, so the NFP number better be sufficient to validated yesterday's market lift off.

Via Goldman and ZH

 
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Fri, 03/04/2011 - 08:31 | 1017952 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture

Off topic alert  Silver Wheaton annouced last night a blow quarter  record earnings and is now paying out a Dividend!!!!!

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 08:39 | 1017956 e_u_r_o
e_u_r_o's picture

will dissappoint hard again

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 08:41 | 1017964 westboundnup
westboundnup's picture

Even if NFP exceeds estimates, look for the markets to end flat today.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 08:43 | 1017965 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Rosie said he wouldn't be surprised if 160 or 170 was the number and he even cited weather as a factor

Rosie did not make a comment on S&P 1330

 

 

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 08:47 | 1017977 JimboJammer
JimboJammer's picture

YouTube>>  Currency  Extinction  Event;

U.S.  Pledged  to  the  chinese

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 08:55 | 1017988 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Who gives a shit? The stock market is in the hands of the Fed, the U.S. Treasury and Wall Street so it literally CANNOT go down. Greenspan's remarks about how the "Wealth Effect" is being scuppered by government actions means government will not dare allow a change in policy. The U.S. currency will continue to track lower against hard assets such that the tax on the U.S. middle and working classes will grow to be unpalatable. At that point, policy will shift and all risk assets will crash.

Until then, BTFD.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:13 | 1018018 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Here we go again...with Mark Zandie and Dianne Swonk...people that simply fail one month after another at their appointed task...and yet here they are again.  And as if this is not bad enough, spending an hour with Greenspan, the maker of the housing debt bomb, sure was cute.

The whole country has embraced socialism, with actual performance on the job entirely irrelevant.  Such is the sad state of our media,our economy our nation.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:17 | 1018027 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I'm sorry but zandi belongs in a back alley suckin weiner.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:15 | 1018022 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

that GS commentary just oozes with giddiness, they're all dancing around the orrice liek school girls. can't wait to see the report, would be a terrible thing if it surprised to the downside.

then again no one cares, afterall, the 'rampjob' that normally would have come post-nfp release happened yesterday.

upside surprise....i got your upside surprise right here.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:16 | 1018023 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

My bid is for +165,000 and massive multiple orgasms on Bubblevision.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:15 | 1018024 snowball777
snowball777's picture

'Payrolls' are a meaningless statistic...aggregate income is the only useful measure of recovery. A million baristas and greeters won't save the economy.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 09:21 | 1018037 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

the number will be "unexpected" and bad weather was the cause..the gop could only come up with 60 bil in fed spending..tea party congress members got nothing.

now cutting fed spending will kill the jobs in USA..is the new mantra on MSM..

the BLS is a dead mouse on the kitchen floor of america.

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 10:58 | 1018413 TheEmperor
TheEmperor's picture

"A tremor in the Force"

Have I missed this reported on ZH?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/fed-policy-makers-signal-abrupt-end-to-bond-purchases-in-june.html

This is 'major tremor' inducing to the markets...n'est pas?

Fri, 03/04/2011 - 13:08 | 1019139 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

All eyes on a fictitious cooked manipulated bogus number ...that will later be adjusted after people's attention has moved on.

That's the state of the financial world in America, all based on lies. 

Mon, 03/07/2011 - 20:41 | 1028075 lsjcma
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