Today's Economic Data Highlights - Case Shiller, Conference Board And 3rd To Last POMO
Even as everyone is glued to webcasts out of Athens, there will be some secondary data in the US, first of which is the Case-Shiller index, as usual about 3 months delayed, and thus very much irrelevant, and second is the circular loop of an indicator that is the Conference Board (it's up when the market is up, it's up when the market is down but when the respondents are Wall Street CEOs, it's up when stocks plunge but when gas is down a cent, and in fact, it is never down). More importantly, the third to last POMO in QE2 will be completed at 11 am. Lastly, $35 billion in 5 year notes will be "sold" to Primary Dealers.
9:00: S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (April): slower decline? The C-S index has moved toward slower declines in recent months. Goldman expects a further slowdown to a 0.1% month/month decline in the seasonally adjusted index in April, which would be the least bad reading since last July. The forecast is consistent with the sequential improvement seen recently in other house price indicators such as the CoreLogic and FHFA indexes. The consensus is a bit more pessimistic with a 0.20% (mom) decline.
GS: -0.1%, Median forecast (of 17): -0.20%; last -0.23%.
10:00: Conference Board consumer confidence for June. Goldman expects a slight renewed setback in confidence in view of the recent deterioration in the labor market and the weaker reading in the University of Michigan reading this month.
GS: 59.0, median forecast (of 69): 61.0; last 60.8.
10:00: Richmond Fed manufacturing and service indexes for June. Forecasters (there are only 7 of them) expect a slight improvement in the manufacturing index to -3 from -6. There is no consensus for the service index, which showed a sharp drop in shopper traffic in the retail sub-survey last month.
Median forecast (of 7): -3, last -6.
11:00: Third to last POMO as Brian Sack buys $4-5 billion in 08/15/2018 - 05/15/2021 bonds
13:00: $35 Billion in 5 Year Notes auctioned off
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