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Today's Economic Data Highlights - Fasten Your Seatbelts
Fasten your seatbelts…
8:15: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on objectives and tools of monetary policy….With markets widely expecting another round of quantitative easing given the Fed’s rhetoric since the last FOMC meeting, this speech opening a Boston Fed conference on monetary policy shapes up as one of the most important of Chairman Bernanke’s tenure. The title—Monetary Policy Objectives and Tools in a Low-Inflation Environment—suggests a thematic approach, in which he will likely discuss various options, including targeting price levels and perhaps also nominal GDP as well as asset purchases, even though the targeting approaches have little likelihood of adoption in the near term. We have advocated his discussing optimal policy models, which currently suggest that the FOMC should and would push the funds rate well below zero if it could, as discussed most recently in last night’s daily comment. It’s not at all clear he will do this, but such models are likely to come up later in the conference as John Williams, research director at the San Francisco Fed, where research of this nature has been done, is scheduled to speak at 11:00 am.
8:30: Retail sales for Sep…another modest increase? Retailers reported another month of decent year-to-year gains in business, and vehicle sales rose modestly as well.
On total sales, GS: +0.6%; median forecast (of 80): +0.4%, ranging from -0.1% to +0.8%; last: +0.4%;
On sales ex autos, GS: +0.6%; median forecast (of 75): +0.3%, ranging from -0.4% to +0.6%; last +0.6%.
8:30: Consumer price index for Sep….Energy and food prices both helped pull the headline PPI up. We expect the same for energy (+1%) but not necessarily for food (+0.1%). The core index is also apt to remain low.
On headline, GS: +0.18%; median forecast (of 79): +0.2%, ranging from +0.1% to +0.4%; last +0.25%.
On core, GS: +0.10%; median forecast (of 78): +0.1%, ranging from flat to +0.2%; last +0.05%.
8:30: Empire Index for Oct…what’s under the hood? Given its post position in the line-up of Fed business indexes, this report will set the tone for industrial conditions in October. As usual, the details are as important as the headline index, which is not a composite. In the September report, indexes of new orders and shipments reversed some but not all of the sharp setbacks reported for August. However, the general pattern in recent months has been one of weakening, and we would expect this report to be consistent with those trends.
Median forecast (of 50): +6.0, ranging from zero to +12.5; last +4.10.
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment for Oct (prelim)…slight uptick? This index has chanced little over the past three months after a setback in July. Analysts anticipate a slightly better reading for early October, but not a break-out. The median expectation for inflation five to ten years ahead remains in a tight 2.7%-2.9% range (since November), with the latest reading at 2.7%.
Median forecast (of 65): 68.9, ranging from 64.4 to 73.5; last 68.2 (Sep final).
10:00: Business inventories for Aug…another upside surprise? Some deceleration is likely from the sharp increase reported for July. The median forecast implies a 0.6% increase in retail inventories given the data that have already been reported for manufacturing (+0.1%) and wholesale (+0.8%).
Median forecast (of 50): +0.5%, ranging from flat to +0.7%; last +1.0%.
11:00: Permanent Open Market Operation... The Fed will purchase treasuries dated between 10/31/2014 – 9/30/2016. The amount will be approximately $3 billion.
12:30: Former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn speaks on the economy…We don’t normally highlight speeches by former officials, but on a day when Chairman Bernanke is giving an important speech on monetary policy, the views of his former lieutenant may be of more than passing interest.
14:00: The US budget balance for Sep…another modest year-to-year improvement. The CBO estimates that the US Treasury ran a $32bn deficit in September, which would mean a deficit of $1.291trn for FY 2010 as a whole. The CBO’s estimate is rarely more than a few billion dollars off, which is why it is now also the median forecast.
Median forecast (of 25) -$32.0bn, ranging from -$69bn to -$30bn; last (Sep 2009): -$46.6bn.
from Goldman Sachs and Zero Hedge
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POMO day = market up
The last POMO day = market down.
Gold up. Gold down.
http://www.chartseeker.com/images/AU-24HR-SM.png?r=59111473562.298004
8:02 AM $1,385.20
8:05 AM $1,368.70
+1
If the market is down on a POMO day, guess somebody at FRBNY will be sacked. ;-)
Yeah, more POMO!!!
LOL Leo trying to deny he's gay again.
Doesnt matter if you junk it Leo, still just as funny.
I am very secure with my heterosexuality and have no problems whatsoever with gays. In Mykonos, half the island is gay. They add flavor to the place. And besides, wherever there are gays, there are super hot women. Grow the fuck up and deal with your insecurities.
What about Lesbos?
What do you mean by "flavor"?
Eeewww...LOL.
Why do you think Mykonos is such a happening place? The nightlife, food, stores, everything is amazing. I remember a long time ago, when I first went to Mykonos with some buddies of mine, we ventured off in the city at night and walked right through Pierrot's, a famous gay bar. One of my friend's was freaking out. All these buffed up gay guys were looking at him and he started walking faster. As we hit a crowd of people, I reached over and pinched his ass. LOL! He totally freaked. "Who did that?!?". We were all laughing at how anxious he was walking through there. Then, we discovered Caprice, Mercedes, and the famous Skandinavian bar where we chased skirts every night. Good times!
delete duplicate
Sounds good to me, it means that even ugly guys like me can stand a chance with the hot women!
DavidC
Flavor what?
my fears mostly revolve around crazy bulls stampeding us off a cliff, any suggestions?
"I am very secure in my heterosexuality..."
Did the other option make your eyes water?
Is this the part where the big elephant in the back seat will come tumbling through the front window?
Lots of data points, but likely more of the same reaction...
Data good = market up
Data bad = more QE = market up
Data neutral = no need to deviate = market up
Futures just took off like a rocket. Ben must have promised everyone in the room $1T.
So did gold.
WTF, @8:15, you weren't kidding.
With all the depressions and recessions since the FED was created in 1913, why would anyone have any respect for or confidence in these con men. The dollar is now worth 2% of what is was when they took over. Like a driver who speeds up then hits the brakes to throw people out the back, The FED manipulates the economy so their cronies can anticipate the acceleration then buy up the wounded and dead after the crash.
Why not let the market set the rates, is bb really smarter than the market?
Of course, ignore headline CPI. The devil is in things you use, eat, or have to have. And the Government and Bubblevision don't care if those prices double.
Monthly or weekly.
Gold and Silver just gone vertical,funky shit going down in the city.
gold to 1850? what say you?
I think theyre about at the top of their pumpin band, and they need a doozie of an Oct surprise too I believe. Right about now would be just right to have a 'market emergency' for famous fear and panic the sheeple technique. And just enough time before BS election for them to 'save us'. I dont know just guessin. I certainly dont see them just pump markets forever here though, got to be an endgame, for what they pump they must dump.
TD,
I think you should running a series on how similar Dr. Bernanke is to the crazy general in Dr. Strangelove. It is beyond ridiculous what he is doing: wrecking the currency (no acknowledgement), driving away foreign buyers of Treasuries (you would have to be an idiot to be the person in charge of a country's SWF and be buying long-date at this point); driving poor grandma (my grandma!) into the gambling den of the stock market. It is completely utterly insane.
Crashing the currency is a prerequisite to creating a new one, as in a one world fiat currency where the central bankers own the imaginary printing press! bb is a traitor! The wolf in sheep's clothing now in charge of the US economy.
ben just said he's gonna make it rain for all "da hoes"
bernanke says: " The Fed may stress that it expects to keep rates "low for longer than markets expect,"
the man is a genius, no? there's no possible cap on this thing. whatever it is that you think is long, ha! nope its long+epsilon baby.
8:30: Empire Index for Oct…what’s under the hood? Given its post position in the line-up of Fed business indexes, this report will set the tone for industrial conditions in October.
Given the fact that manufacuturing in this country is a mere fraction compared to the massive economic engine of 70% consumerism. When the Empire Index does pick up, it does not take much to influcence this number anymore.
Really this is a great post from an expert and thank you very much for sharing this valuable information with us.
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