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Today's Economic Data Highlights - GDP Revision, Claims And Chicago PMI

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Key releases on jobless claims and industrial activity give way to Chairman Bernanke and other financial regulators at mid-morning…
 
8:30: Unemployment insurance claims….back in the range.  Initial claims have moved up and down over the past few weeks, but from 30,000 feet one broad theme is clear—there has been no significant trend one way or the other in 2010.  Continuing claims have edged down over the same period, but the trend in total recipients is much less clear after adjusting for the people who have lost eligibility for all programs.  For initial and continuing claims, analysts this week expect more of the same.  The continuing figure applies to the payroll survey week, but the emergency/extended programs have another week to go before hitting this point.
For initial claims, median forecast (of 47): 460k, ranging from 450k to 475k; last 465k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (of 8): 4.473 million, ranging from 4.45mm to 4.5mm; last 4.489mm.
 
8:30: GDP for Q2 (second estimate)….not much change. The third cut to GDP growth and its components rarely produces much change from the second-round estimates, though risks tilt to the downside given large revisions to construction spending in May and June.  The GDP price index is unlikely to move significantly.  The core PCE index will incorporate updated information on bank service charges, but nobody knows which way this would likely push the results.
On GDP, GS: +1.6%; median forecast (of 81): +1.6%, ranging from +1.3% to +2.2%; last (Q2 second est) +1.6%.
On the GDP price index, GS: +1.9%; median forecast (of 39): +1.9%, ranging from +1.7% to +2.0%; last: +1.9%.
On the PCE core index: GS: +1.1%; median forecast (of 16): +1.1%, ranging from +1.1% to +1.1%; last: +1.1%.
 
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index for Sep…further moderation?  This index has run stronger than the national ISM manufacturing index in recent months, presumably due to the larger weight that auto-related production has in this region.  Most economists expect it to come down a bit further.
GS: 58; median forecast (of 57): 55.5, ranging from 53.6 to 58.3; last 56.7.
 
10:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on implementation of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act
….before the Senate Banking Committee.  He will be joined by FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, SEC Chair Mary Schapiro, and CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler.
 
14:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to an educators’ town hall….we have no information about the topic.
 
16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet….The size of the Fed’s balance sheet remains around $2.3 trillion as repayments of principal on agency debt and MBS is now being reinvested into US Treasuries.  This shift will show up slowly over time, as the amounts per week are in the $3-$4bn neighborhood.
 
18:00: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks at the Women’s Economic Round Table on Vital Issues Confronting the New Congress…in New York City.  Ms. Pianalto is a voting member of the FOMC this year.

Via Goldman's Ed McKelvey

 

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Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:33 | 615122 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Tyler,

I thought there was a POMO today but on the NYFED's site it shows nothing scheduled ... ?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 05:26 | 1493744 shanelee
shanelee's picture

I actually own a small business, and it seems to me that buying fans actually has benefited my business. I purchased 5,000 fans from fanbullet.com and after that my fan base grew buy facebook likes by itself. I didn't have to do anything. I saw an increase in sales as well. So I believe is actually worth it. Hope this helps someone.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:33 | 615124 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Last day of the month, last day of the quarter. With the hat trick safely in place (Sept 2010 up 8%) how desperate are the powers to hold on today?

I always laugh when some people snicker at the idea that there's no manipulation in the markets by your average (large) money manager yet they take for granted that there is end of quarter "window dressing" going on.

Can you say opposing beliefs aka cognitive dissonance.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:33 | 615125 Hedge Jobs
Hedge Jobs's picture

you know what would really be a highlight:

10:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pleads guilty to crimes aginst humanity and begs for mercy as the nuremberg trials mark II begin. He will be joined by co conspiritors FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, SEC Chair Mary Schapiro, and CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:37 | 615139 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

I lol'd

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:34 | 615126 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Wow, that was a stick save by massaging some numbers.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:34 | 615127 Number 156
Number 156's picture

Ok, now can anyone tell me:

  1. How do we know if these numbers are accurate?
  2. These numbers wont magically be revised next month. (up or down, doesnt matter).
Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:44 | 615151 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

the numbers are OK.  spain just confirmed them.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:37 | 615136 john_connor
john_connor's picture

I'm frontrunning JPY and CHF interventions.  Fasten Seatbelt.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:42 | 615146 Clark_Griswold ...
Clark_Griswold Hedge Mnger's picture

John,

you expecting the swiss to step in again; the last few times didn't work out all that well for them if I recall.

Just wondering?

Clark

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:46 | 615157 john_connor
john_connor's picture

I don't think they will have a choice.  Bruce Krasting discussed the possibility of a two tier franc a while back, which would essentially be a selective tariff. 

What is interesting is so many currencies at breaking point all at once.  JPY, AUD, CHF, EUR.

A waterfall awaits. 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:51 | 615168 Clark_Griswold ...
Clark_Griswold Hedge Mnger's picture

Can you imagine the complexities of a two tiered franc???? 

I see your point, yes everyone is at the tipping point:

Uncle Ben is manning the pumps to finish off the month;

Spain needs to get a new calculator

Ireland, Italy, Port, etc....

Japan trying to keep it down....

And of course who can forget Brazil and Powerhouse Peru.

This is going to be an interesting day.

Metals already up pre market, course with this mess shouldn't be a surprise.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:00 | 615190 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I should say that I've been clicking away at your charts for the past two weeks. So it's about time I gave you a shout out and a hearty "good job".

Thanks.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:38 | 615262 99er
99er's picture

Thanks. They're my subversive acts.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:40 | 615144 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Market will skyrocket today....unless something bad happens.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:42 | 615147 StockInsanity
StockInsanity's picture

More B.S. Backwards looking revisions, Zerohedge I am sure we would love to see some stats on what % of Government Numbers are getting downwardly revised in the month following them getting put out there.

Seems like every one !

StockInsanity

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:41 | 615270 Everyman
Everyman's picture

Read the BLS Reporting thread today.  IT is 90% of the time BLS Revises their data.  IT is rosey on the report date, then revised backwards.

90 percent of the time!

What would happen at YOUR JOB if we had to redo your work 90 percent of the time?

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:26 | 615348 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Based upon most company promotion policies, abject failure is always promoted to the corner office....as long as you're an ass kisser and will carry the water. If you're one of the peons, it's off to the slave ship for you.

It's not what you do, it's not who your know, it's who you bl......

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 08:53 | 615175 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

 

Stock futures climb on drop in unemployment claims Stock futures climb on last day of quarter after reports on unemployment claims, GDP

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stock-futures-climb-on-drop-apf-3589963920...

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 09:00 | 615192 99er
99er's picture

Chart: ES

Hey...it's early still.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/09/es_30.html

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 10:29 | 615355 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

What's the significance of the "99er". As in 99 percentile?

Or did you blindly punch keys when asked to pick a ZH ID? :>)

Sat, 10/09/2010 - 09:39 | 637572 senthil456
senthil456's picture

There are certainly a lot of details like that to take into consideration.I read and understand the entire article and I really enjoyed it to be honest.
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