Today's Economic Data Highlights - GDP Revision, Claims And Chicago PMI
Key releases on jobless claims and industrial activity give way to Chairman Bernanke and other financial regulators at mid-morning…
8:30: Unemployment insurance claims….back in the range. Initial claims have moved up and down over the past few weeks, but from 30,000 feet one broad theme is clear—there has been no significant trend one way or the other in 2010. Continuing claims have edged down over the same period, but the trend in total recipients is much less clear after adjusting for the people who have lost eligibility for all programs. For initial and continuing claims, analysts this week expect more of the same. The continuing figure applies to the payroll survey week, but the emergency/extended programs have another week to go before hitting this point.
For initial claims, median forecast (of 47): 460k, ranging from 450k to 475k; last 465k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (of 8): 4.473 million, ranging from 4.45mm to 4.5mm; last 4.489mm.
8:30: GDP for Q2 (second estimate)….not much change. The third cut to GDP growth and its components rarely produces much change from the second-round estimates, though risks tilt to the downside given large revisions to construction spending in May and June. The GDP price index is unlikely to move significantly. The core PCE index will incorporate updated information on bank service charges, but nobody knows which way this would likely push the results.
On GDP, GS: +1.6%; median forecast (of 81): +1.6%, ranging from +1.3% to +2.2%; last (Q2 second est) +1.6%.
On the GDP price index, GS: +1.9%; median forecast (of 39): +1.9%, ranging from +1.7% to +2.0%; last: +1.9%.
On the PCE core index: GS: +1.1%; median forecast (of 16): +1.1%, ranging from +1.1% to +1.1%; last: +1.1%.
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index for Sep…further moderation? This index has run stronger than the national ISM manufacturing index in recent months, presumably due to the larger weight that auto-related production has in this region. Most economists expect it to come down a bit further.
GS: 58; median forecast (of 57): 55.5, ranging from 53.6 to 58.3; last 56.7.
10:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on implementation of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act….before the Senate Banking Committee. He will be joined by FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, SEC Chair Mary Schapiro, and CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler.
14:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to an educators’ town hall….we have no information about the topic.
16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet….The size of the Fed’s balance sheet remains around $2.3 trillion as repayments of principal on agency debt and MBS is now being reinvested into US Treasuries. This shift will show up slowly over time, as the amounts per week are in the $3-$4bn neighborhood.
18:00: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks at the Women’s Economic Round Table on Vital Issues Confronting the New Congress…in New York City. Ms. Pianalto is a voting member of the FOMC this year.
Via Goldman's Ed McKelvey