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Today's Economic Data Highlights - Non-Farm Payrolls
Payroll day, wholesale inventories, and one Fed speech….
8:30: Employment report for Aug…deceleration in private-sector hiring? Wednesday’s daily comment summarized our views on the labor market, which call for only a small increase in private-sector payrolls. The key points: job advertising has stagnated, business surveys are mixed, jobless claims are down, but largely for technical reasons, consumer perceptions about job availability have worsened, and the ADP employment report showed an outright loss, which when corrected for its normal tendency to understate suggests a much smaller increase than was reported in the official data last month. The continuing unwinding of temporary Census jobs should result in another setback for total nonfarm payrolls. This report will also contain a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to be implemented early next year; our best guess is that BLS will signal that a small upward revision is likely for the level of payrolls as of March 2010.
On total payrolls, GS: -50k, median forecast (of 87): -5k, ranging from -75k to +75k; last -54k.
On private-sector payrolls, GS: +25k, median forecast (of 60): +75k, ranging from flat to +110k; last +67k.
Many are looking for an up-tick in the unemployment rate in the wake of the loss of Census jobs.
GS 9.7%; median forecast (of 83): 9.7%, ranging from 9.6% to 9.8%; last 9.5%.
Many are looking for deceleration in wage inflation on a trend basis as the unemployment rate hovers just under 10% and the broadest measure of underemployment remains in the mid teens.
GS +0.1%; median forecast (of 57): +0.2%, ranging from flat to +0.3%; last: +0.3%.
10:00: Wholesale inventories for Aug…continued increases? These inventories are goods that are essentially in transit from factories or from the docks to final destinations such as retail outlets and are therefore difficult to forecast. They rose sharply in July, with unusually large gains in apparel and raw materials suggesting that the import surge in Q2 might have been a factor. Economists expect a return to the more moderate pace of earlier months.
Median forecast (of 35): +0.5%, ranging from +0.2% to +0.8%; last +1.3%.
14:25: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo speaks on financial regulation….he will participate in a panel discussing “Next Steps in International Financial Regulation” at a conference in Washington, DC.
From Goldman
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(Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials could wait until December before making any decision to ease monetary policy further if they feel they need more clarity on the outlook, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday.
The CNBC broadcast from the St. Louis Fed, which has been going on since 6, is actually worth watching. Highlight clips are/will be posted here: http://www.cnbc.com/?id=15839263&tabid=15839798&tabheader=false&t=0.6445924359320554
Nothing that will make you particularly optimistic or restore your faith in the Fed but it's not exactly a softball game either.
Todays gain in payroll will be 86,000.
Chart: ES and ZB
Before...
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/10/es-zb.html
turd...game on now
Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-95,000) in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. Government employment declined (-159,000), reflecting both a drop in the number of temporary jobs for Census 2010 and job
losses in local government. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+64,000).
Only half of the government decline was census, the rest was local government layoffs. It's a start.
Virtually no change in manufacturing, retail, wholesale and most services jobs: the upswing came in health care, temps, food services and mining.
In other words, SNAFU...
Don't forget 477 billion dollar christmas. Stock up.
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