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Today's Economic Data Highlights - Post-FOMC Sugar High, And $5 Billion POMO
Reports today on the Monster index (already out - it fell, but hey, QE2, initial claims, productivity and costs, and spending at retail chains….Oh yeah, and a $5-6 billion POMO.
The Monster index of on-line job advertising fell two points in October. This was also a two-point loss after seasonal adjustment. Although the index is still about 13% above its year-earlier level, since June it has dropped 5% in seasonally adjusted terms and 3½% in unadjusted terms.
8:30: Unemployment insurance claims….was that drop for real? As is often the case, forecasters assume some mean reversion following the 21k drop in initial claims reported last week. They also look for a partial reversal of the drop in continuing claims. We will also watch how the number of people receiving extended or emergency benefits is moving, particularly since the data to be reported this week cover the reference week for the October employment survey. This pool of unemployed workers has a downward bias as people are exhausting eligibility.
For initial claims, median forecast (of 50): 442k, ranging from 430k to 455k; last 434k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (of 14): 4.378 million, ranging from 4.3mm to 4.425mm; last 4.356mm.
8:30: Productivity and costs for Q3…a modest increase. Nonfarm output rose at a 3% annual rate in Q3, considerably more than real GDP overall. With hours worked up at about a 2% rate, we reckon a small increase in productivity. The median forecast shows the same thing. Forecasts of unit labor costs are all over the map; our reading is that they fell modestly last quarter.
For productivity, GS: +1.0%; median forecast (of 65) +1.0%, ranging from flat to +2.6%; last (for Q2) -1.8%.
For unit labor costs, GS -0.5%; median forecast (of 57) +0.6%, ranging from -2.2% to +2.0%; last (for Q2) +1.1%.
16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet….Yesterday the FOMC told us the balance sheet, currently just under $2.3 trillion, is headed to about $2.9 trillion by mid-2011. The increase should start in the second half of November.
From Goldman and ZH
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You hear that sound... its the dollarcopters
Got my extra large gold rake here ready and waiting.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke embarked on a historic test of unconventional monetary policy by using tools devised during the financial crisis to add fuel to an economy that’s been expanding for 15 months.
Yes, some key words to note from the bloomburg lead in.
Ben using unconventional expanding tool
More intellectually dishonest stuff from Bloomburg.
Uncle Ben is using the ONLY tool available to him, a very conventional printing press.
End of.
"You hear that sound"
The sound I should be hearing is gun fire in the middle of the night.
Can someone explain - if the insiders are selling, and the retail are selling (mutual funds), and the FED is buying, where do the securities ownership show up that the FED is buying stocks at these levels?
They do this thru there pals on wall street, GS,JPM,Blackrock.
aah, saw the comments from yesterday's announcement. did everyone have time to digest their shit sandwich? any indigestion..we all ate a huge chunk of shit yesterday....yum yum
No need for economic news. There is no economy. Just show the POMO chart. Thanks ( Sarcasm/ Anger )
+1,365
You are correct in my view, and this has been the case for some time.
Unemployment is high, going to be higher but the market will not care. Housing will continue to get worse but the market will not care. The market is the Fed and will be for quite a while. If the Fed decides to buy a greater variety of risk assests, then they will hold this market up for many years to come.
There will be no "revolt", no marching in the streets or any other such nonsense, well except for the NBA, NFL. MLB championships of course. We are a fat, dumb and happy people.
Frustrated? Maybe Ron Paul will be able to change some things now, but I doubt it. As for the future of the country in terms of monetary policy, the course has been set and it will take many years to change direction.
The market is the Federal Reserve. Simple and concise; very easy to trade and invest. This doesn't mean the market will always go up, but it will always go where the Fed tells it to go.
Hey, guys. Markets are up so get with the "wealth effect" feeling and Don't Worry - Be Happy!!
Hunger = Hell Raising
Hunger, the great motivator...King Louis XVI, and pals, found out just how good a motivator it is.
Meanwhile....Gold is up $41.20 today or 3.08%, at $1378.80. Silver over $25.50 oz.
Commodities across the board going balls to the wall except live cattle and feeder cattle ....gotta feed em, you know.
Ben said he wanted inflation but I doubt he expected it this fast and furious.
http://finviz.com/forex.ashx
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
This jump in the index futures minutes before the release is quite telling how everyone but main street knows the numbers.
Will gold hit $2000.00 by 2012, looks that way. Silver up 4.40% today 25.52
Charts
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
Good luck.
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