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Today's Economic Data Highlights - ADP, POMO
A couple of readings on the jobs report following the latest weekly reading on mortgage applications, then Secretary Geithner… Of course, the only relevant thing is that the Fed will inject another $2 billion of high beta stock purchasing power via today's second consecutive POMO.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications edged down 0.2%, but the purchase loan index rose 9.3%. At a level of 198.7 (March 16, 1990 = 100), it’s still low in absolute terms, but that’s better than at any time since just after the homebuyer tax credit expired at the end of April.
7:30: Challenger job cuts for Sep….should continue to be substantially lower. Announced cuts have been running down a bit more than 50% on a year-to-year basis. The rate of decline may moderate a bit, but it should remain substantial.
8:15: ADP employment report for Sep…will it return to positive territory? The median forecast anticipates a slight increase in this indicator, which has understated the net change in the official count of private-sector payrolls consistently since December 2008, with an average miss of 61,000. So the median forecast of +20k would imply something like an 80k increase in Friday’s report, not far from the +75k median currently shown for that indicator. We don’t forecast the ADP report, which itself is a forecast, but our +25k expectation for Friday’s report obviously implies something weaker. That said, this is but one of many variables, and one whose reliability has not been very high.
Median forecast (of 37): +20k, ranging from -44k to +75k; last -10k.
9:00: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner speaks….at the Brookings Institution. The session is titled “A Conversation with Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner,” so most anything could come up.
From Goldman
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Anybody know how much POMO is left in QE Lite?
depends on how much lead Bernake has in his pencil.
As much as they want.
new schedule coming out octber 13 i believe..might be shorter length of time between days..
CNBC and Bloomberg are already running around the sets jerking each other off for "DOW 11,000" today.
The futures are already starting their phantom march upward.
Fuck it.
100% bullish? This should end well.
Anyone else think that talking up QE2 is all they have left to get us through the elections?
CNBC and Jerk go well together.
Please, let it...
The higher it goes the further it will fall, which will mean lots more profits for us bears!
DavidC
The blind leading the blind...
by Turd Ferguson
on Tue, 10/05/2010 - 14:50
#627058
Yep, the EE is trying but gold sure looks like it wants to take a run up at 1350. Maybe happen overnight? Still, if it does, you can bet your ass a bunch of fresh, new paper shorts will come out to attempt to bang it back down tomorrow am NY time.
The employment report has all the trappings of a fuck job at this point. Just like last December. Everybody got sucked in to gold and out of the $ and, lo and behold, the Dec employment number came in a little better than expected. The $ began a huge rally and gold went into the shitcan. May not happen Friday but I can't get that old feeling out of my head
Hi Turd ( no offense) - yeah I got dat feelin' too!!
definitely something to keep on the radar. if it does play out like that i have my fun bux ready for trade outs (i heart silver). see though, last december there was alot of koolaid drinking..what carbon based individual with decent sense is buying these numbers, indicators, chart analysis...I think opinions have changed or are changing there..good for sites like zh to expose the revisions to jobs numbers and all the other rigged B.S. out there. There is one variable that has been kinda let out the bag..that is pm = money..cheers.
Yo Turd,
as I type gold is 1351, futures took a little "hit", numbers weren't "that"good" but POMO will fix it shortly! I fully agree with your string of thoughts, thing is though, SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE and I sense IT WILL! Once our fellow citizen's finally catch up with the FACT that all that money is not going to do anything but buy some fraudster another mansion things will get a lot "better"! Strange thinking, to believe all that printing will do much, money is actually scarce, it's not in the system, only the other "system", thus all think inflation, I think deflation, money goes to cc debt, loans etc. lots of goods, to little money, Bnjie wants it otherwise, won't happen!
Hi, Joe.
Just to clarify...gold is going nowhere but UP. The proverbial "cat is out of the bag". The paper gold charade of the Comex is finally being squeezed and, at the same time, the bottom is dropping out of the USDX. A beautiful, perfect storm on the Evil Empire.
Obviously, anything can happen in the next 48 hours but the EE has just a fixed number of dirty tricks and we've seen them all before. As a result, you can begin to anticipate what will happen next with reasonable accuracy. So here goes...
Gold will be capped by the EE at the 1350 level. Coincidentally, silver is butting up against its last level of resistance at 23, too. These two levels, with the natural selling they will inspire, will help the EE to cap the prices right here. Then, you can see it coming a mile away.
1) ADP is bad this morning.
2) USDX sells off
3) Everybody and their brother now expects a bad BLS BS report on Friday
4) BLS BS report comes out "better than expected"
5) EE picks up ball and runs. Jams Dec10 gold back down to 1325 or so.
The question then is, what happens next? My guess would be that our friends, the buyer(s) of size, will step in and rally gold back to a close of 1335-40...leaving no damage on the weekly chart. With the BLS BS out of the way, the up move restarts next week.
$1500 on or before 12/10/10.
Potential bullion demand from retail investors in Japan and China is huge. How long before they join a global flight to safety/quality?
LOL
ADP down, futures STILL up. Fucking unbelievable.
CNBC immediately brings on a shit-eating moron "expert" to say it's OK and expected and, most importantly, perfectly normal and nothing to worry about.
Quit watching CNBC. It's bad for your health.
ADP was a terd, but the service sector was up. More people waiting tables and putting cream and sugar in your cup of DD coffee. That should make for explosive economic growth and related consumer spending.
Wow, futures just flattened out. Must be a computer glitch...
Now CNBS looks at revisions. Spin it, baby!
I work near 14th Street in Manhattan. There were about 20 empty retail spaces last year. In the last 5 months A few of them have been occupied. With what you say:
Vapiano Pizza Place
Crepes Shop
Argo Tea Shop (Which moved into a place wear another coffee shop Went out of business.)
A Hummas Bar
And a new "POP Coffee and sandwich shop is opening soon.
So I guess Americans will all have 7 dollar an hour jobs and just ewat ourselves to death. I give most of these places less than a year....
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Holiday-sales-forecast-to-cnnm-2124076266....
I'll repeat on Kudlow last night Dennis gartner and Kudlow himself seem unaware that the POMO even exists never mind how much the FED owns in Treasuries. Someone needs to better disseminate this information.
Oh they know. They just will never acknowledge it.
can someone please tell me where to find the POMO auction shcedule. all up movement since mid september has been from front running the fed.
if you look at the charts it has been all stick save with a short squeeze on fed opening day. this isn't a real rally at all!!
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html