Today's Economic Data Highlights - Some Stuff, And POMO

Tyler Durden's picture

Home prices, consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed index, and one more Fed speech….
9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller Home price index for Aug…another decline?  This index has started to give back some of the increase posted during the spring quarter, when the homebuyer tax credit was in place.  Most analysts expect another small decline, but not the huge drop that has been rumored for August and September on the basis of a competing index.
Median forecast (of 15): -0.2%, ranging from -1.1% to flat; last -0.13%.
10:00: Conference Board confidence index for Oct…a small increase?  This index suffered a setback in September.  The median forecast looks for a partial recovery (we are in line with that).  As usual, we will look at the gap between those saying jobs are plentiful and those saying they are hard to get.  In September it widened to -42.3 from -41.5 in August.  The cycle low was -46.1 in November, 2009.
GS: 50; median forecast (of 75): 49.9, ranging from 45 to 53; last 48.5.
10:00: Richmond Fed manufacturing index for July…will it stabilize?  This index dipped below the zero dividing line between industrial expansion and contraction in September.  The six economists who forecast it look for either a flat reading or a slight return to positive territory.  All three components of this composite index have behaved in roughly similar fashion, dropping to either zero (new orders) or slightly negative (shipments and employment) in September.
Median forecast (of 6): +1, ranging from 0 to +5; last -2.

11:00: POMO Complete (begins 45 minutes prior): Today the Fed will monetize bonds with a maturity between 2/15/2021 – 8/15/2040. Total amount estimated around $3 billion.

16:30: New York Fed President William Dudley speaks on the national and regional economy…at the University of Rochester.  This looks like largely a repeat of the speech he gave at Cornell University yesterday.
17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…It’s been bouncing between -47 and -45 lately, last at -46.

From Goldman Sachs and Zero Hedge

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99er's picture


But some investors have begun worrying that the market consensus for a big burst of QE may be overdone. This has been backed up by comments from some Fed officials.

Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig called more asset buys by the central bank a "very dangerous gamble." New York Fed President William Dudley said the U.S. economic context would determine whether an incremental or big bang approach to asset purchases was better.

"The dollar is in a bit of a holding pattern. The market is still mulling over the U.S. QE story and dollar selling is a bit less of a one-way bet than it was," said Jeremy Stretch, currency strategist at CIBC.