Today's Economic Data Highlights: Trade Balance And Claims

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/09/2010 07:41 -0400

From Goldman Sachs

The trade balance, jobless claims, and the Fed’s balance sheet….

8:30: The US trade balance for July…slight improvement? This report has considerable significance for judgments about third-quarter growth given how deep the trade deficit was in June. In real terms, the merchandise trade deficit for June was about $6bn deeper than the Q2 average. Absent a quick reversal of this deterioration, the presumption will be that trade has continued to exert a drag—albeit (hopefully) much smaller—in Q3. Almost all economists’ estimates for the nominal goods and services balance, including our own, lean in this direction and hence underscore the downside risks to near-term real GDP growth. That being the case, the risk is that we are all wrong by being too conservative and that the brave soul forecasting a $43bn deficit will carry the day.
GS: -$48bn, median forecast (of 73) -$47.0bn, ranging from -$52n to -$43bn; last -$49.9bn.

8:30: Unemployment insurance claims….settling back into the old range? In the last two weeks, initial claims for jobless benefits have moved back down into the upper end of the 425k-475k range in which they had fluctuated from March through most of July. Analysts expect them to stay there. Meanwhile, the number of recipients of continuing claims for regular state programs has drifted down slowly, and expectations again fit this pattern. However, with the number of idle workers receiving extended and emergency benefits now fluctuating between 5½ and 6 million during periods when the programs have been in force, much of the relevant action is in this component of the report. Last week’s data, which covered the week ending August 14 for these programs, showed this total dipping to 5.44 million, bringing the aggregate number of benefit recipients down below 10 million.
For initial claims, median forecast (of 46): 470, ranging from 460k to 482k; last 472k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (of 14): 4.45 million, ranging from 4.4 million to 4.485 million; last 4.456mm.

16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet….The size of the Fed’s balance sheet remains a hair below $2.3 trillion as repayments of principal on agency debt and MBS is now being reinvested into US Treasuries. This shift will show up slowly over time, as the amounts per week are in the $3-$4bn neighborhood.

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Thu, 09/09/2010 - 07:45 | 571363 NoBull1994

I predict that there will be many people losing jobs....

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 07:46 | 571365 Mongo

I predict that future will be shorted!

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 07:57 | 571371 Sean7k

Aw, the study of statistics generated by the people whom need the numbers to do them the most justice...I think I prefer the look around, the sane assessment of the local economies and the prices paid for goods.

The government can lie all they want. They have done a magnificent job up to date and I salute the CB's. They have extended and pretended longer than any austrian could begin to imagine. Rothbard is turning in his grave.

Still, eventually, the people must choose: slavery or liberty. We have a history of slavery that is finally beginning to fall upon all citizens. We have a history of accepting it. Well, this is one slave that is refusing to stay on the plantation.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 08:12 | 571386 obelisks

well slavery has already arrived in Great Britain

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/7985181/HMRC-could-t...

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 08:26 | 571409 Sean7k

So, what is the difference between this and a fully planned central economy? I would imagine the people are not even complaining. They have done their job well...Hope you're not in Britain. Thanks for the link!

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 08:03 | 571376 wang

How GM Made $30 Billion Appear Out of Thin Air: Jonathan Weil

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-09/how-gm-made-30-billion-appear-from-thin-air-commentary-by-jonathan-weil.html

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 08:05 | 571379 wang

B-school expose Profs' research put under microscope

By JOSH KOSMAN

Last Updated: 4:45 PM, September 8, 2010

A new documentary is taking two Columbia business school bigwigs Fred Mishkin (right) and Glenn hubbard down a peg - saying the pair has been acting in an entirely unbusiness-school-like way.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 08:42 | 571429 Ace Ventura

From Bloomberg a few moments ago:

Host babe: "What do you make of these new initial jobless claims?"

Bobblehead: "Well, these numbers are good, and clearly show we're coming out of this economic malaise."

Pardon my simpleton peasant-like ignorance, but 420,000+ initial jobless claims is supposed to be good news just because they were expecting 450,000+? Am I missing something, or does this still show that 420,000+ people have just filed for unemployment, aside from all the millions who have already done so?

Isn't this a bit like saying: Hey, we expected a 300 ft. tall tsunami to hit our awesome beach, but look...it's only 285 ft. tall! Hooray! We're saved! Break out another Corona!

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 09:02 | 571484 Occams Parsimony

You want to help this economy (if that can be done) STOP BUYING MADE IN CHINA unless you absolutely have to. I have bought as little as possible from China for two years now. I always look at the labels and choose alternatives. As we squeeze the bankers by exiting the market every week we also need to squeeze the manufacturers that produce in China for export. Keep looking at the labels and we will force things to change.

Cheers!

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 09:09 | 571496 taraxias

I too check the labels.

Don't buy "made in china" to you must then mean "made in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, etc., etc."

When are you going to realize that the "made in the usa" option in most things we buy has vanished.

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 10:30 | 571752 Ace Ventura

I've noticed a bit of label trickery when it comes to 'Made In' disclosure. Many large firms are recognizing that US consumers are trying to avoid the 'made in China' product more frequently, thanks in part to the 'shocking' discovery of toxic crap in kid's toys, pet food, baby food, etc etc.

What companies are doing now is replacing 'made in' with 'distributed by'. What they are likely doing now is importing a chinese-made product to a domestic distribution center, and then only identifying the distribution center on the product label.

So instead of 'made in China', you now see 'distributed by Sam's West Inc, Bentonville, OH'. Voila, the sheeple now think they're buying a domestic product.

Dontcha lub it?

AAAAAALLLLLLLRRRIIIIIIGHTYY THENNNN !!!!!!!

Thu, 09/09/2010 - 12:58 | 572073 Grand Supercycle