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Today's Economic Docket: Dallas Fed And New Home Sales Should Confirm Contractionary Relapse

Tyler Durden's picture




 

New home sales expected to rebound from record lows. Dallas Fed at 10:30 should confirm the Q2 economic contraction (expect Goldman to downgrade Q2 GDP if Dallas Fed comes under 10). After a one day absence, POMO is back, though today all Primary Dealer proceeds will likely go to fund margin calls.
 
10:00: New home sales (March): Likely higher, but level still low. New home sales fell by 17% to an all-time low in February. While activity in the new home market looks poor in general, a few special factors may have depressed sales volumes during that month. Specifically, weak sales in the Northeast and Midwest may have resulted from inclement winter weather, and the drop in the West could have been payback for an earlier tax credit-induced jump (in California). We therefore expect that sales partially recovered in March. However, our forecast of a 10.0% increase would still leave the level of sales very low at an annualized rate of 275,000.
Median forecast (of 64): +12.0%; Last -16.9%.
 
10:30: Dallas Fed manufacturing index (April): Still strong. Unlike the Philadelphia Fed index, the manufacturing indicator from the Dallas Fed was not particularly elevated last month. A steep decline therefore looks unlikely for this measure.
Median forecast (of 5): +13.4; Last +11.5.

11:00: $6-8 billion POMO; After a one day absence on Friday, Brian Sack is back in the market, gobbling up 10/31/2016-03/31/2018. Proceeds today will liekly be used not to buy Netflix but to fund silver (and gold) margin calls.

From Goldman and Zero Hedge

 

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Mon, 04/25/2011 - 07:26 | 1202938 Fredd00
Fredd00's picture

margin call bitchez

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 08:07 | 1203003 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

I want a Dow -4oo points day¡:)

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 08:17 | 1203018 Robslob
Robslob's picture

The dow moves inverse to PM margin calls...lol!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 08:33 | 1203056 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Paging Mr. Margin, paging Mr. Margin...

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 08:45 | 1203083 Midwest Prepper
Midwest Prepper's picture

DOCTORRRR  LEEEOOOO MARGINNNNNN!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 08:57 | 1203112 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

I live in a Podunk town in CO. The mall parking lots were packed over the weekend like it was Black Friday, and the road traffic was unusually heavy. Consumerism is alive and well, even with gas at $3.80.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 09:20 | 1203166 Old Poor Richard
Old Poor Richard's picture

The parking lot at Burlington Mall 10 mi NW of Boston was always packed and overflowing throughout the 'recession.'  Now in 2011, there is gridlock even on the approaching highways.  Housing is astronomical, too.  People gripe about gas about like they gripe about the weather, no impact because prices in this region are already massively inflated.  It costs more to remodel a kitchen here than it costs to build a house in many areas of the country.  Never was a recession in New England that I can tell. 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:36 | 1204213 thames222
thames222's picture

Kind of, but at the same time not really.  people are out in the streets, but that doesn't mean they're spending a lot of money.  

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 09:09 | 1203140 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Staying in a mall necessarly doesnt mean you are consuming....just people is bored of wasting time in their homes:)

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 09:40 | 1203223 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nothing to do at home, cable turned off, hey lets go to the mall and hang out.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 13:38 | 1204204 tomster0126
tomster0126's picture

home prices are actually going to rise, and people are going to buy over the summer.  look for a small recovery this year, and for green innovation to bring more recovery growth to the market in the next couple years.

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 21:37 | 1206266 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

 

...could just be the blow off top of consuming...max everything out before the bankruptcy

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 05:29 | 1324682 aoter
aoter's picture

Likely higher, but level still low. 642-524 test New home sales fell by 17% to an all-time low in February. While activity in the new home market looks poor in general, a few special factors may have depressed sales volumes during that month. Specifically, weak sales JK0-016 test in the Northeast and Midwest may have resulted from inclement winter weather, and the drop in the West could have been payback for an earlier tax 650-568 test credit-induced jump (in California). We therefore expect that sales partially recovered in March.

Mon, 06/06/2011 - 01:43 | 1342608 rockingsteve
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