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Today's Economic Docket: Deteriorating Case-Shiller, Confidence And Richmond Fed, $35 Billion In 2 Year Bonds

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The trend in house prices appears to be worsening. We expect an acceleration in the decline in the Case-Shiller measure for February. Modest POMO closing at 11am will do little to offset the $35 billion in 2 Year notes to be auctioned off at 1 pm.

9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index (February): Faster decline. Over the last 2-3 months, the various measures of US house prices (FHFA, Core Logic, Zillow, Radar Logic, Median Existing Home Sales Prices) have deteriorated at an accelerating rate. We expect a similar message from the Case-Shiller report this morning, with the 20-city index falling by 0.3% mom (seasonally adjusted) after a 0.2% decline in January.
Median forecast (of 20): -0.4%; last -0.2%.
 
10:00: Conference Board confidence index (March): Slight improvement. After last month’s sizable decline, we see room for a partial recovery in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence. An ongoing improvement in labor market conditions may have offset the negative impact of further increases in gasoline prices on household sentiment. Our forecast for a rise to 65.0 would leave the index well-below its February level of 72.0.
Median forecast (of 68): 64.5; last 63.4.
 
10:00: Richmond Fed survey (April): Likely still high. Following the very large decline in the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index, the second-tier regional surveys have taken on added importance. Last month the Richmond Fed measure declined slightly, but remained at a high level of 20.0.
Median forecast (of 8): +20; last +20.

11:00: Fed monetizes $1.5-$2.5 billion. Today Brian Sack will flood market with just a modest ~$2 billion after it buys bonds maturing betwee 05/15/2021-11/15/2027.

13:00: Treasury auctions off $35 billion in 2 Year bonds (CUSIP: YB7) . Primary Dealers buy about 55%, flip 15% back to Fed one week later.

From GS and ZH

 

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Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:42 | 1207516 gabeh73
gabeh73's picture

I just listened to a Richmond Fed Lackner speech/podcast. At the Q&A at the end he says he "doesn't think it is likely at all that the US Dollar would lose reserve currency status, but if we did then we could get by fine"

 

The guy is a joke... makes Alex Jones seem less outrageous.

Go listen to a IMF podcast(free) on the importance of figuring out how to get more taxes out of the african people to increase the revenue going to corrupt governments. This makes Alex Jones look pretty damn good for a radio talk show host.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:24 | 1207247 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Modest POMO closing at 11am will do little to offset the $35 billion in 2 Year notes to be auctioned off at 1 pm.

Sweet.  I wish the government could come up with a method of even more quickly accumulating debt.  I wish they could monetize a trillion dollars in debt per POMO...on the way to a kajillion.  I wish we could have debt auctions equivalent to three times the GDP of the globe...plus the moon and mars.  I wish they would just raise the debt ceiling to infinity, and then have an auction of infinity 30 year notes.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:43 | 1207289 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, why go with little bits and pieces nonsense when the clowngress can simply raise the debt ceiling to $5 quadrillion, and the FED can go monetize $10 trillion per day....hey if its all good then its ALL GOOD!

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:32 | 1207258 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Is that the deflation monster i am hearing off in the distance?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:46 | 1207299 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes deflation in what you own dollars and homes, severe inflation in everything else you need to buy daily.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:38 | 1207267 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Today's Economic Docket:  Rising Equities and Soaring REITS on Pathetic Volume

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:47 | 1207307 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Remember Zimbabwe's stock market would go up 100% gains day after day. 

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:05 | 1207367 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

I'm in the deflationary collapse camp, but if the market was going up 100% everyday, somehow I think Americans would think that all is well.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:36 | 1207487 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Most people don't even know what their 401(k) accounts even represent.  They only know the balance of the account.  If it goes up, then the world is full of gum drops and rainbows.  Yes, they are that stupid.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:47 | 1207536 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Sad, but true.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:36 | 1207269 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I wonder what the Consumer Confidence number would be if Food Stamps were cut back?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:53 | 1207319 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Oh, but they are!
One price increase at a time.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 08:53 | 1207320 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

50 million or so 'american consumers' suddenly cut off from food stamps and govt pay for being unemployed, probably muddy the consumer confidence numbers a bit, just guessing.

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:03 | 1207359 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Today's Economic Docket: Does it even matter?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 09:10 | 1207373 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yup. Housing in a tailspin as expected in all metro areas except DC (where politicos use free Fed cash to bid on their own houses)

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 10:47 | 1207766 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

I live in Austin. Sold my home of 7.5 years in January, and got asking price in a week (suckers). Put all proceeds into gold and silver, rent a home now, and have been very happy with it all. Friends keep telling me what a mistake it was, that the Austin market is "different." I'm happy with my decision, no regrets at all (other than missing my neighbors). I am a little surprised to see that the housing market continues to be quite stable, and see new home construction all over the place. So is Austin truly "different," or just on a different timetable than the rest of the country?

Tue, 04/26/2011 - 11:24 | 1207904 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

US home prices fall for 8th month in Feb – S&P/Case, 26 April 2011, (Reuters) http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/26/usa-economy-homes-index-idUSN2626130620110426

Excerpt:

Average home prices across the United States are back to levels where they were in the summer of 2003.

“There is very little, if any, good news about housing. Prices continue to weaken, trends in sales and construction are disappointing,” David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices, said in a statement.

The glut of houses up for sale has kept prices low and the market has struggled to regain traction since a home buyer tax credit expired last spring.

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