Today's Economic Docket: DIsappointing GDP
US GDP growth likely slowed in Q1:
8:30: GDP for Q1 (Advance estimate): Slower growth.Available data suggests real GDP growth slowed in Q1, due primarily to weaker consumer spending. We forecast that overall GDP increased by 1.75%, and that real household consumption increased by 2.4%, down from 3.5% in Q4. Weakness in business fixed investment (capex) and housing also contributed to the slowing. While the contribution to GDP growth from net trade is likely to turn from a large positive (+3.3 percentage points in Q4) to a modest negative, we expect this to be largely offset by a more positive contribution from inventory growth.
On GDP, GS: +1.75%; median forecast (of 80): +2.0%; last (Q4) +3.1%.
On the GDP price index, GS: +3.0%; median forecast (of 33): +2.3%; last: +0.4%.
On the PCE core index: GS: +1.4%; median forecast (of 17): +1.4%; last: +0.4%.
8:30: Jobless claims (Week of April 23): Jobless claims dropped last week after a surprising jump in early April (which the Department of Labor said was due to “quarter-end volatility”). However, the decline was smaller than expected, and claims remain above their March levels. Given that the job market overall appears to be improving, we believe the decline in claims is likely to resume over the next few weeks.
Median forecast (of 38): 395,000; last: 403,000.
8:30: Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke at community affairs conference.
8:30: San Francisco Fed President John Williams at community affairs conference.
10:00: Pending home sales (March): Modest gain. The pending home sales index – which tracks signed home sales contracts, and leads the official count of existing home sales by 1-2 months – has recently stabilized. However, gains to date have only reversed a large decline after the expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit. Increases from current levels may signal a more fundamental improvement in sales volumes.
Median forecast (of 32): +1.5%; last +2.1%.
13:00 : Treasury auctions off $29 billion in 7 Year bonds, possibly breaching debt ceiling in the process
From Goldman Sachs and Zero Hedge
- advertisements -