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Today's Economic Docket: FOMC Conference And Durable Goods

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With all eyes focused on the Fed's largely irrelevant first ever presser, during which only "Congressionally accredited" journalists will "ask" questions, we also get durable goods which we anticipate will confirm the recent downward economic trend indicated by the Dallas and Richmond Feds, as well as all the horrendous double dipping housing data.

 
8:30: Durable goods orders (March): Rebound after weakness. We [Goldman] forecast that new orders of durable goods increased by 3.0% mom in March after declining by 0.6% (revised) in February. Importantly, we expect that “core” orders (non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft) picked up after a two-month slump. The weakness in capital goods orders looked puzzling in light of strong business surveys and healthy growth in industrial production of business equipment. We therefore think a sizable payback looks likely.
GS: +3.0%; median forecast (of 74): +2.3%; Last: -0.6%.

11:30: 5 Year auction ends early to accomodate new FOMC release schedule

This afternoon, Fed Chairman Bernanke will hold his first public press conference following the regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).  With regard to the major policy decisions, we expect: (1) that the post-meeting statement will retain the “extended period” language, but that it may drop an earlier comment that the recovery is “on a firmer footing”; (2) that the FOMC will clarify that it intends to complete its $600bn Treasury purchase program in June; and (3) that the committee will cut its forecasts for growth, but raise it forecasts for core inflation. In the press conference we expect that the Chairman will sound more cautious on the outlook but also emphasize that Fed officials are monitoring inflation expectations closely.
 
Below is an expected timeline of events, reproduced from Monday’s US Daily:
 
12:30pm – FOMC statement released.The Fed’s website gives the time as “around 12:30pm”, which will come as no surprise to Fed watchers used to twiddling their thumbs for several minutes after the scheduled release time. (Just to keep market participants on their toes, the statement does occasionally come out a minute or two before the scheduled time.)
 
2:15pm – Press conference begins.
We expect Fed Chairman Bernanke to make an introductory statement which will feature the FOMC’s projections for growth, unemployment and inflation (but probably not the detailed distribution of these forecasts nor discussion of the staff’s forecasts). An article published today on the Wall Street Journal website (“Federal Reserve Irons Out Details of Post-Meeting Press Conference”, by Jon Hilsenrath) implied that any introduction is likely to be very short. According to the article, additional published information on the FOMC forecasts, along the lines of Table 1 in the Fed minutes from the January 25-26 meeting, will be made available on the Fed website at this time. Assuming this is correct, it would imply that detailed information on the distribution of forecasts, and on the staff’s economic forecasts, would not be revealed until the publication of the minutes (though of course these subjects could surface during the question and answer session).
 
ca. 2:25pm – Question and answer session begins.
This is a live session with journalists, who are likely to be well prepared with probing questions. The questions have not been submitted to the Fed in advance.
 
Sometime around 3pm or slightly after
– Press conference ends.The typical length of an ECB press conference in recent years has been about 45 minutes, perhaps a little longer recently. The aforementioned WSJ article suggested a similar length for the Fed’s first conference.

 

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Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:07 | 1210741 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Shill - defined as Congressionally accredited journalists.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:09 | 1210742 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

so steve liesman is going to be one of the questioneers....enough said....

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:09 | 1210747 smeagol
smeagol's picture

and at what time does gold go vertical?

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:18 | 1210751 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

The fourteen and one half trillion dollar question.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:09 | 1210748 Strategery
Strategery's picture

Old one, but accurate: How do you know when Bernanke is lying? When his lips are moving.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:11 | 1210749 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

I don't see why the keep putting the spotlight on these meetings and media conferences with Bernanke. We all know he is not going to say anything negative, and continue to use the same terms he has created the past two years.  So why waste all the money traveling to hear the same message?  Just replay the tape from the past 2 years over the loudspeaker.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:28 | 1210806 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

Despite what ya said Dr.Benzerker does speak the truth.For instance, look out for any changes in key words at the FOMC Conference. So, when the good Doc' states this time round that the economoney is on a 'sustainable path', that's the truth and that ain't no lie......

......on a 'sustainable path' of destruction

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:11 | 1210753 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

CON-ference minutes:

Lies. Some more lies. Small lies. Huge damn lies. Softball question. Pre-prepared lie. More softball questions.

One bombshell. Medium fuse. Watch out below, dollear.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/04/24/phase-shift/

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:20 | 1210779 joemayo
joemayo's picture

Behold! The nightmare, live via satellite!  A first in the history of man!

* * *

"Where are you all going?"

"To the Emerald City," said Dorothy, "to see the Great Oz."

"Oh, indeed!" exclaimed the man. "Are you sure that Oz will see you?"

"Why not?" she replied.

"Why, it is said that he never lets anyone come into his presence. I have been to the Emerald City many times, and it is a beautiful and wonderful place; but I have never been permitted to see the Great Oz, nor do I know of any living person who has seen him."

"Does he never go out?" asked the Scarecrow.

"Never. He sits day after day in the great Throne Room of his Palace, and even those who wait upon him do not see him face to face."

"What is he like?" asked the girl.

"That is hard to tell," said the man thoughtfully. "You see, Oz is a Great Wizard, and can take on any form he wishes. So that some say he looks like a bird; and some say he looks like an elephant; and some say he looks like a cat. To others he appears as a beautiful fairy, or a brownie, or in any other form that pleases him. But who the real Oz is, when he is in his own form, no living person can tell."

 

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:42 | 1210857 oogs66
oogs66's picture

I was thinking about this earlier.  In Wizard of OZ the front part looks great, its only once they see behind the curtain that the game is up.  Is this conference the behind the curtain moment?

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:22 | 1210784 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

FOMC = Fuck Over Many Citizens

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 09:08 | 1210955 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

 

how about "Fuck Off Middle Class"

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:28 | 1210800 HedgeFundLIVE
HedgeFundLIVE's picture

At some point, the decline in USD has to end. I believe Bernanke’s speech tomorrow will be read as bullish for the USD. 

http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/eurusd-analysis-bernanke-effect-on-equities

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:41 | 1210842 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Collin Barr did a good preview of press conference this morning - he stands apart among MSM.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:45 | 1210862 Broomer
Broomer's picture

For some reason the conference wasn't scheduled for Friday.

Nothing to see here, no way there would be bad news to be priced until weekend.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 08:46 | 1210864 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Lightweights, losers and morons as Gerald Celente calls them.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 09:06 | 1210943 Dan The Man
Dan The Man's picture

 

it'll be interesting to see the gld/slv & usd movement during the presser.  i may have to have the spot window up at the same time.

 

it'll be all about the questions anyway...not the answers

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 09:04 | 1210945 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

REITS are way up again pre-market.  I'm sure they'll reach new 52 week highs for the 5th straight day.

Look for another 100+ DOW move today to set the stage for a glorious 'press conference' with Bernak.

What a disgrace this has become.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 09:26 | 1211094 magpie
magpie's picture

John Law's digitized paper shuffling medium will announce 0.25 % instead of 0-25.

Wed, 04/27/2011 - 09:54 | 1211261 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

I'm sure the press conference and Q&A will be one big lovely circle jerk and it will be Shitanke's time to shine by speaking in economic semantics and not really assessing anything correctly or accurately-- let the shit show continue.

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