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Today's Economic Docket: Personal Income, Chicago PMI And UMichigan Wall Street CEO Sentiment

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Data on Personal Income should indicate another reduction in the savings rate, Chicago PMI will miss consensus confirming economy is in Japan-induced freefall, UMichigan will poll a couple of Wall Street CEOs who have never seen Jeeves happier, and lastly Bernanke will speak in some televized conference and not providing any new data as usual.

                                                                                                                         
8:30: Personal income and outlays (March): Monthly details. All the data released with the March Personal Income and Outlays report were implicitly included in yesterday’s Q1 GDP release. The value of today’s data will be in details around the underlying monthly trajectories. Under the assumption of no revisions to January and February, the published quarterly data imply growth of 1.1% in real consumer spending in March. This outsized growth rate suggests a strong March reading and upward revisions to previous months. The same exercise for the core PCE deflator implies and increase of +0.18% for March – close to our forecast.
Income: GS +0.2%; median forecast (of 66): +0.4%; last +0.3%.
Spending: GS: +0.4%; median forecast (of 69): +0.5%; last +0.7%.
Core PCE price index: GS: +0.16%; median forecast (of 45): +0.1%; last +0.2%.

 
8:30: Employment cost index (Q1):
Moderate wage growth.  This index continues to grow at a slow pace, similar to other measures of wages, such as average hourly earnings.
GS: +0.5%; median forecast (of 46): +0.5%; last +0.4%.
 
8:40: St. Louis Fed President
James Bullard at community affairs conference.
 
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index (April). Large decline. We forecast a sharp decline in the Chicago purchasing mangers’ index, as we believe the region could be affected by supply-chain disruptions in the motor vehicle sector caused by natural disasters in Japan (for details see Andrew Tilton, “The Effects of Japanese Supply Chain Disruptions on US GDP”, US Daily, April 20, 2010).
GS: 65.0; median forecast (of 49): 68.2; last 70.6.
 
10:00 (9:55 to subscribers): Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment (April final): Possibly small increase.  Forecasters are looking for this index to show a small increase after stabilizing in the preliminary April report. Its inflation expectations measures will likely receive extra attention. In the preliminary April release, the measure of 5-10yr inflation expectations fell to 2.9% from 3.2% previously.
Median forecast (of 52): 70.0; last 69.6 (Apr prelim).
 
12:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at community affairs conference.

From Goldman Sachs and Zero Hedge

 

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Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:13 | 1219766 ivars
ivars's picture

Does not the profits around look abnormally good? The global economy has not recovered so much as profits suggest, so its mostly liquidity pushed around ending into increased sales, but were these products really needed by economy in this stage? Its like building a global stock, similar to USA where inventory buildup for some reason accounted for huge part of the Q1 growth?

Producing to inventories does not seem like a good way to increase sales, as that is not real consumption, and soon may be overfilled. Partly explainable as people try to exchange devaluating money into real goods, but that is also not sustainable if these goods are not needed for some work required by economy

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:16 | 1219771 ivars
ivars's picture

See how nicely USA stimulating effects on DJIA pattern follows those of Greek government on Athens index in 2009. The USA seems to be very close to Greece in some financial behaviour aspects. Hence the future may also be the same:

http://www.saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&p=32056#p32056

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:19 | 1219790 Racer
Racer's picture

As usual the CONfidence number that the HFTs watch will be improved whilst the Bloomberg index reported yesterday they don't watch was worse

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:26 | 1219815 Cursive
Cursive's picture

None of this matters anymore.  Benron & Co. has perfected their confidence game.  The vast majority of market participants is "all in" with the Fed.  The hubris is currently unbearable, but the reckoning will be more so for those who have bought into this folly.  Unfortunately, as it involves our national currency, many innocent bystanders who have never bought or sold a stock certificate will be harmed.  On a positive note, the coming onslaght should turn the average citizen's thoughts away from "Dancing With the Stars" and more toward economic matters.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:30 | 1219816 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I could have just said "BTFD," but that will end in tears as well.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:48 | 1219874 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Keep in mind, during the blood letting, that Ag has antiseptic properties.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 09:29 | 1220053 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@manthong

If the dollar collapses, you'll probably need silver more for it's medicinal uses rather than as a medium of exchange. A dark future awaits us.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 09:46 | 1220118 Jovil
Jovil's picture

Fed likely to print an additional $2.5 trillion. Read the reasons why.

http://lonerangersilver.wordpress.com/2011/04/28/fed-likely-to-print-2-5...

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