Today's Economic Events
Home prices, Richmond Fed, and a couple of readings on consumer confidence. More importantly, POMO is back, and Brian Sack will buy back $6-8 billion of bonds due 6/30/2013 – 11/30/2014, in the second to last POMO of the year. Tomorrow, Sack will buy some of the 2 Years that were auctioned off yesterday as the great shell game continues.
9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for Oct…another decline? Although the FHFA’s monthly index rose in October, we do not expect a similar outcome for the Case-Shiller for three reasons. First, even if the bounce in the FHFA index is genuine, the Case-Shiller index is based on a 3-month moving average of prices and is therefore still capturing declines from earlier months. Second, the FHFA index for September was revised to show a deeper decline. Third, and most importantly, our model says Case-Shiller will go down 0.6%.
Median forecast (of 16): -0.6%, ranging from -1.2% to +0.2%; last -0.80%.
10:00: Conference Board confidence index for Dec…feeling a bit better? Both the Reuters/University of Michigan and the ABC indexes posted gains in December, suggesting a similar outcome for the Conference Board survey. As usual, we will look at the gap between those saying jobs are plentiful and those saying they are hard to get. In November it narrowed, but only slightly and from an October reading that was revised to show a weaker labor market. The November 2010 reading was -42.5; the cycle low was -46.1 in November, 2009.
Median forecast (of 60): 56.4, ranging from 53 to 60; last 54.1.
10:00: Richmond Fed manufacturing index for Dec…will it rise further? This index recovered in October and November after dipping slightly below the zero dividing line between industrial expansion and contraction in September. The seven economists who forecast it look for either no change from the November reading or a modest improvement. Unlike other Fed indexes, this one is a composite of orders, shipments, and employment. All three have behaved in a fashion comparable to the composite.
Median forecast (of 7): +11, ranging from +9 to +12; last +9.
17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…will it break out to the high side? Last week this index rose to -41, the upper end of the range that has prevailed since early 2008.
- advertisements -