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Today's Economic Events

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Home prices, Richmond Fed, and a couple of readings on consumer confidence. More importantly, POMO is back, and Brian Sack will buy back $6-8 billion of bonds due 6/30/2013 – 11/30/2014, in the second to last POMO of the year. Tomorrow, Sack will buy some of the 2 Years that were auctioned off yesterday as the great shell game continues.

9:00: S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for Oct…another decline?  Although the FHFA’s monthly index rose in October, we do not expect a similar outcome for the Case-Shiller for three reasons.  First, even if the bounce in the FHFA index is genuine, the Case-Shiller index is based on a 3-month moving average of prices and is therefore still capturing declines from earlier months.  Second, the FHFA index for September was revised to show a deeper decline.  Third, and most importantly, our model says Case-Shiller will go down 0.6%.
Median forecast (of 16): -0.6%, ranging from -1.2% to +0.2%; last -0.80%.

10:00: Conference Board confidence index for Dec…feeling a bit better?  Both the Reuters/University of Michigan and the ABC indexes posted gains in December, suggesting a similar outcome for the Conference Board survey.  As usual, we will look at the gap between those saying jobs are plentiful and those saying they are hard to get.  In November it narrowed, but only slightly and from an October reading that was revised to show a weaker labor market. The November 2010 reading was -42.5; the cycle low was -46.1 in November, 2009.
Median forecast (of 60): 56.4, ranging from 53 to 60; last 54.1.

10:00: Richmond Fed manufacturing index for Dec…will it rise further?  This index recovered in October and November after dipping slightly below the zero dividing line between industrial expansion and contraction in September.  The seven economists who forecast it look for either no change from the November reading or a modest improvement.  Unlike other Fed indexes, this one is a composite of orders, shipments, and employment.  All three have behaved in a fashion comparable to the composite.
Median forecast (of 7): +11, ranging from +9 to +12; last +9.

17:00: ABC consumer comfort index…will it break out to the high side?  Last week this index rose to -41, the upper end of the range that has prevailed since early 2008.

Via GS

 


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Tue, 12/28/2010 - 08:46 | Link to Comment e_u_r_o
e_u_r_o's picture

bang dae gold

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 08:59 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

TO CELEBRATE THAT HIGH CONFIDENCE, WE SHALL PRINT MORE DOLLARS!!!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 09:06 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

...and send those dollars to Europe where even Ben Shalom Bukkake refuses to tell congress where exactly they went to.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 09:22 | Link to Comment ricksventures
ricksventures's picture

It's Ben Shalom Acid (not the trippy kind) Bukkake

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 09:43 | Link to Comment wisefool
wisefool's picture

I'd like to do that with my income taxes. "Trust me, it was all tax deductable"

.... Err wait, isn't that essentially what the current head of the IRS did?

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 09:21 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Thanks for the updates. You are relentless.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 09:30 | Link to Comment Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

Housing permits fell in November to the third-lowest level on record.

 

Some real BS in the article below. They twist the news into a positive light. Starts rose for the first time in 3 months and they claim it as a sign of recovery. A one month stat is not a recovery!!!

My brother is a general contractor in Los Angeles and tells me whats being built are condos and apartments. In my book these are different than 'housing' starts though they get classified as the same. These are not what you build wealth on they just leach your wealth from you. Not a good sign for the future.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-28/housing-starts-seen-rising-to-t...

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Do you think money even changes hands when these Sack-acquired recent Treasury issuances are repurchased via POMO a short time later, or do the PDs simply say "put it on my tab, and we'll settle up later (wink-wink)".

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:33 | Link to Comment glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Wow...Sack's actually waiting a whole day, it would be so much more efficient if he just did it at the same time...lol

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