Today's Economic Events

Claims, Chicago purchasing managers’ index, pending home sales, and the Fed’s balance sheet…
 
8:30: Unemployment insurance claims….settling?  Absent a major upside surprise, which is quite possible in these holiday weeks, the four-week average of initial claims should resume its downward trend as expectations tilt toward a modest further reduction in the number of people filing for benefits.  (The number being tossed out is 438k.)  In contrast, economists expect a modest backup in continuing claims, the number of recipients under regular state programs.  The data to be released today cover the payroll reference week.  Claims for emergency/extended benefit programs should drop significantly further as today’s report continues to cover a period when these programs had lapsed.
For initial claims, median forecast (of 28): 415k, ranging from 395k to 430k; last 420k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (of 11): 4.084 million, ranging from 4mm to 4.11mm; last 4.064mm.
 
9:45: Chicago purchasing managers’ index for Dec…still strong?  This index has run stronger than the national ISM manufacturing index in recent months, presumably due to the larger weight that auto-related production has in this region.  We expect it to remain firm.

median forecast (of 49): 61, ranging from 59 to 63.7; last 62.5.
 
10:00: Pending home sales index for Nov....will it hold the gain or mean revert?  The October reading was surprisingly strong.  In the context of other, relatively subdued readings on home sales, we’d guess that at least some mean reversion is in order.  However, the bias of forecasts is for a modest increase.
Median forecast (of 24): +0.8%, ranging from -5% to +5%; last +10.4%.
 
16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet….The balance sheet is closing in on $2.5trn (probably another couple weeks away), on its way to about $2.9trn on the assumption that the FOMC sticks with its plan to increase its holding of longer-term assets by $600bn.  (We assume that it will.)

Via Goldman Sachs

Comments

[velobabe]

outperform rating, on goldman sucks†

[snowball777]

Great Karnak sez: Chi-town PMI will print below 60.

[snowball777]

The Chicago PMI climbed to 68.6 in December, compared to November's reading of 62.5.

I stand corrected, puzzled, and afraid for what they're pulling forward and what that implies for the future.