Today's Economic Events

After the MBA’s report on mortgage applications, we have some labor-market data and the ISM’s non-manufacturing survey…At 11 am the Fed will complete its purchase of just $1.5-$2.5 billion in 17-30 year treasury.
 
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of mortgage applications rose 2.3% in the final week of 2010 following a 3.9% setback in the prior week.  Both figures were released today.  The net decline over these two weeks was all in applications for refinancing as the purchase loan index rose 2.3% on balance.  However, at a level of 199.8 (March 16, 1990 = 100), this index is still not far off the 14-year low to which it fell last summer.
 
7:30: Challenger job cuts for Dec….probably still down?  Although claims and layoff announcements are far from the same thing, the improvement in claims—even discounting last week’s decline—suggests that announcements have probably also diminished.  If so, we suspect that the year-to-year change will be a bit deeper than last month’s trivial 3.3% drop.
 
8:15: ADP employment report for Dec…will it pick up?  For the first time in six months, and only the third since it was revamped in December 2008, this forecast of the change in private-sector payrolls missed on the high side in November.  The average miss over this period is a shortfall of 66k (85k without regard to sign).  Most of this is built into analysts forecasts, which show 100k for ADP and 150k for the private component of the official report.
Median forecast (of 32): +100k, ranging from +50k to +150k; last +93k.
 
10:00: ISM nonmfg index for Dec…will it improve?  Economists are looking for a slightly larger increase in the ISM’s index of nonmanufacturing activity, which has run uncharacteristically below its manufacturing cousin throughout the recovery.  The employment index has historically been a helpful addition in forecasting payrolls, though last month’s 5-point increase would have given the wrong signal had it been known before the BLS report.
GS: 56; median forecast (of 66): 55.7, ranging from 54 to 58.5; last 55.0. 

Via Goldman's Ed McKelvey

Comments

[SilverRhino]

Can someone provide an explanation on why Silver is getting absolutely HAMMERED in the last 48 hours?    31 to 28 and change is mind boggling.

[SilverRhino]

PM's getting blowtorched.  Is this all just related to the dollar gaining strength??