Today's Economic Events

Following this morning’s Monster Employment Index, we have claims, retail chain stores, and the Fed’s balance sheet. Speaking of the latter, there is $6-8 billion in 1/31/2015 – 6/30/2016 bonds to be monetized, which means futures are already levitating.

The Monster Employment Index fell 4 points (3%, month to month) in December, but this was actually a smaller-than-normal seasonal decline.  On a seasonally adjusted basis, we calculate that the index rose 3 points.  Over the past six months, this measure of online labor demand has exhibited no clear direction after increasing noticeably during the first year of the recovery.  Broadly speaking, the "not much has changed" nature of this report is in line with the Conference Board's index of on-line help-wanted advertising, released yesterday.

8:30: Unemployment insurance claims….rebound?  It’s not unusual for forecasters to look for some mean reversion after a big move in initial claims.  Moreover, with Christmas Eve landing on a Friday (and therefore possibly affected by some early office closings), a case can be made that this particular decline had some statistical distortion.  The data on initial claims are well past the reference week for tomorrow’s report on payrolls in December, while the data that do apply to that period—total recipients including those on extended/emergency programs—will be contaminated by the lapse in these special programs.

For initial claims, median forecast (of 36): 408k, ranging from 360k to 450k; last 388k.
For continuing claims, median forecast (of 12): 4.08 million, ranging from 4mm to 4.15mm; last 4.128mm.

16:30: Federal Reserve balance sheet….The balance sheet is closing in on $2.5trn (probably another couple weeks away), on its way to about $2.9trn on the assumption that the FOMC sticks with its plan to increase its holdings of longer-term assets by $600bn.

Via Goldman's Ed McKelvey with commentary