Today's Economic Events

Payroll day to start, followed by Chairman Bernanke’s first congressional testimony of the year and some fresh data on consumer credit later in the day….And of course, POMO
 
8:30: Employment report for Dec…does ADP foreshadow a big gain?  Goldman's conclusion is that ADP has quite a bit of noise in it.  Most other indicators point to an increase of only modest dimensions—100,000 for total payrolls and perhaps a bit more in the private-sector job count.  Goldman doesn’t have a formal estimate of private payrolls this month, but the 25k difference between the median estimates—in favor of a larger increase in private payrolls—looks reasonable.  Away from us, the median forecast for payrolls has risen noticeably in the wake of the ADP report.
 
For other parts of the report, Goldman believes —along with many others—that the unemployment rate will edge down, and we expect wages to remain subdued.
 
On total payrolls, GS: +100k; median forecast (of 78): +150k, ranging from +98k to +240k; last +39k.
On private-sector payrolls, GS: no formal estimate; median forecast (of 41): +175k, ranging from +90k to +230k.
On unemployment, GS 9.7%; median forecast (of 73): 9.7%, ranging from 9.5% to 9.9%; last 9.8%.
GS +0.1%; median forecast (of 51): +0.2%, ranging from flat to +0.3%; last: flat.
 
9:30: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on economic policy and the outlook….before the Senate Budget Committee.  Chairman Bernanke will probably sketch a cautiously upbeat outlook for the economy, repeating the now customary caveats that progress in reducing unemployment is slow and that inflation is lower than they’d like to see.  He’ll probably borrow language from the statement or the minutes to suggest that monetary policy settings will remain where they are for the foreseeable future (of course, it’s the unforeseeable future we all worry about) and that fiscal consolidation is inevitable, but not right now.
 
15:00: Consumer credit for Nov…another increase?  Outstanding balances have begun to increase in the past couple of months, but this is due to a sharp increase in government holdings of student loans.  Most other categories continue to show weakness.
Median forecast (of 33): +$0.5bn, ranging from -$8bn to +$4.5bn; last +$3.4bn.

From Goldman's Ed McKelvey

Comments

[Tic tock]

The faintly ridiculous ADP number came with zero market response; there may be a similar initial fixing, maybe to see how much is lining the walls, or not..i dunno! 

[oogs66]

SOVX hitting new wides today.  Traded as high as 218.  Main/Fins/IG/HY all marginally tighter, but nothing major after yesterday's broad based corporate weakness.  HY remains strongest and at least in ETF land continues with inflows while IG outflows continue.

[Cdad]

Prepare for the USD stud man to have his way with every moving thing on the face of the planet....causing ironic and counter intuitive equity madness...which will be quite pleasing.

[Henry Chinaski]

Forgot one.  17:00 FDIC bank closures.