Watch today’s Fed speakers for any sign that firmer core inflation has affected policy views:
7:35: Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher on “Monetary and Fiscal Policy Challenges in the United States” (in Frankfurt). Q&A scheduled. Mr. Fisher is a voting member of the FOMC this year.
8:00: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto on “The Economy: 2011 and Beyond”. Q&A scheduled. Ms. Pianalto is not a voting member of the FOMC this year.
8:30: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner addresses small business investment conference.
10:00: FHFA House Price Index (January): Still Weak. This index, which tracks the purchase price of homes with agency-conforming mortgages (i.e. it excludes homes with subprime and prime jumbo mortgages), has declined in six of the last seven months and is down 3.3% from a year earlier. Other measures of activity and prices in the housing market have disappointed recently, and we therefore expect that the trend in FHFA prices remains soft.
Median forecast (of 17): -0.3%; last -0.3%.
10:00: Richmond Fed survey (December): Another healthy result. Like the other regional activity indexes, the Richmond Fed series has pointed to healthy growth among surveyed manufacturing firms in recent months. The positive results for the Philadelphia Fed and Empire State indexes released last week suggest the momentum continued in March. Lately the survey has also shown rising prices for inputs and completed products, which likely reflects the rise in oil and other commodity prices. The Richmond Fed survey contains a separate set of questions sent to firms in service-providing industries, which is one of the few direct measures of services activity in the monthly indicator cycle.
Median forecast (of 10): +24; last +25.
11:00: POMO completed: $6.5-$8.5 billion in bonds due 09/30/2016 – 02/28/2018 monetized
Via Goldman Sachs