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Today's Economic Releases
From Goldman Sachs
Just one second-tier indicator on the docket, ahead of President Obama’s news conference on the economy later in the morning….
10:00: Wholesale inventories for July…continued increases? These inventories are goods that are essentially in transit from factories or from the docks to final destinations such as retail outlets and are therefore difficult to forecast. They have increased at an average of about 0.3% per month this year. Forecasts are centered on a slightly larger gain for July.
Median forecast (of 32): +0.4%, ranging from +0.1% to +0.8%; last +0.1%.
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My take? Inventories up-Market Up; Inventories down-Market Up! I do believe the 'rally' is losing steam, though. I wouldn't want to be long most equities this weekend...
i'm with you.....and the designated bagholders are simply not showing up.....i am closing the last longs today and going to sit quietly eating popcorn on the sidelines for the next week or two....
of course, this all means that the thugs who engineered this "rally" are going to be left holding...
awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
@ LooseLee
+1 But you should have also included: Inventories Flat-Market Up! Up, up and away in my beautiful, my beautiful baloon....
Hedge fund liquidation is theme - across most asset classes
Come on O-man tell me how things have stabilised and how it is to the moon from here!!!
Here is how the O-man rolls, or at least with whom he hangs:
That is an average of more than $20,000 a head, for those of you scoring at home.
http://www.politico.com/politico44/perm/0910/831055_31a72565-958f-4226-ae84-3e0580e8d05b.html
I was having a pretty decent morning til I read that.
Getting a seat at the Whitehouse's weekly Tax Cheat Anonymous meeting must be a real bitch.
Spank!
It's Atlas Shrugged meets Trading Places.
President Barack Obama will appoint Austan Goolsbee to lead the Council of Economic Advisers, replacing Christina Romer...
"Who's been putting out Kool's on my carpet?" ...with embroidered MLK , er Theodore Parker, quote.
http://www.amazon.com/Atlas-Shrugged-Ayn-Rand/dp/0451191145
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086465/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-10/goolsbee-said-to-be-picked-to-h...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/03/AR201009...
tyler, i think the second-tier adjective you used early in the sentence might have been better used prior to one of the other nouns later in same.
Why play into the farce by calling Obama President?
Benjamin Franklin's letter to Charles W.F. Dumas, December 1775:
I am much obliged by the kind present you have made us of your edition of Vattel. It came to us in good season, when the circumstances of a rising state make it necessary frequently to consult the Law of Nations. Accordingly, that copy which I kept (after depositing one in our own public library here, and send the other to the College of Massachusetts Bay, as you directed) has been continually in the hands of the members of our congress, now sitting, who are much pleased with your notes and preface, and have entertained a high and just esteem for their author
This is letter 459 in this link:
http://etext.lib.virginia.edu/toc/modeng/public/DelVol02.html
Vattel's Law of Nations states both parents must be citizens at the time of the child's birth for the child to be natural born.
Def of natural born in Vattel's Law of Nations:
http://www.obamacitizenshipfacts.org
It's funny because you think this matters.
Obama is supposed to be a constitutional scholar and know all this.
Why play into the farce?
You're an idiot. It's over. Stop wasting your time (and ours).
You're an idiot for going along with it.
Look: you lost the election. Period. And by your logic, McCain couldn't legally have been President either.
Take your racist, dumbfuck nonsense over to the Glenn Beck drool baths, Orally Taint.
What racism?
Nigger, please.
You're a nutcase.
Says the guy living in his own private Idaho who won't let any pesky reality intrude on his constitutional fantasy of deposing a sitting President.
Yup, sure, uh-huh.
HA!
-not to mention hypocritical. The Judge probably has illegals working on his house right now.
LMAO - that was funny (and no, not BECAUSE he said the N word, but technically I believe he meant nigga)
For what it's worth, some of those that hit Obama with issue also hit McCain. It is not a partisan issue.
Snowball: I think you would be more than welcome at HuffPo! If the only argument that you can make requires profanity and name calling and no substance whatsoever then you need to take your inane rantings elsewhere!
+ 1 / 0
Yo, Judge, at what law school did you get your book larnin'?
The LOLs keep coming!
Somebody please unplug the teleprompters and let Barry O show us what he's got.
Okay, but only if Sarah isn't allowed to look at her hand.
Remind me again, in what office is Sarah Palin currently serving that makes this comment even vaguely relevant?
Reich Minister of Propaganda.
You have no idea how unintentionally funny that is.
Hm. I thought I was being funny.
You don't think that's an apropos description of her role on Fox and at the TeaPotDomeExpressVIII?
Uh, no. I don't.
But please - do go on continuing to refer to your political opponents as The Reich.
Nazi is as Nazi does.
lol
Superb!
Hey, who on this thread thinks Palin is smarter than they are? Come on, fess up!!!!!
I don't. And I'm a certifiable fucknut.
Double post -- LOLing too hard.
And answer questions she (and by "she" I mean her advisors, as she's too stupid to work out her own opinion) wasn't provided 3 days in advance.
That's a deal. And nuts to Biden and McCain, too.
What's she got on her hand? I have hair on mine.
One data point, but whatever, I'm running with it:
Was at the mall last weekend with the wife, shopping in Banana Republic. First, the service was to such a degree that clearly they were trying to differentiate, a marked change to the typical indifference we've received in the past. When she got to the counter, they asked if we had a "friends and family" card - which of course we didn't (this was probably the first time buying something there in...years) - and within a matter of seconds and several discount codes, we were out the door 45% cheaper than the price tag indicated. And in the shopping bag? Another coupon for 30% off her next purchase.
People want to buy. Retailers want to sell. But no one is agreeing on a price, simply because consumers have gotten wise to the fact that their need to consume is not time dependant (trends in fashion haven't changed all that much) and that if they wait long enough, they can get what they want at a dramatically lower price. At some point, retailers and wholesalers have to liquidate. Consumers, on the other hand, don't have to buy. Macy's has long been the king of this trend, and when you see it spread to "boutique" stores like GAP's chains, you know people are in a world of hurt. Inventories are increasing ahead of the holiday season, but I wouldn't be surprised if some larger-than-seasonal amount is due to poor turnover, even as retailers have leaned out operations.
I'm trying not to be a blind contrarian to every bit of news that comes down the pike. That's just as dangerous as saying taking the other side of the argument that the market can never go down. While the data, arguably and defensibly, remains "mixed", I'm still of the opinion that it is a function of a shift in the market from services to goods and a shift in the composition of GDP from consumption to production.
When the free ride is over for the extend-and-pretenders squatting in their McMansions and they have to start paying rent instead of not paying their mortgage, you'll see inventories skyrocket as demand takes a nose dive.
If you're at the mall, you're in extreme denial.
The official statistic is what, 9.6%? for everyone 16 and older? People 20 and older with college degrees are seeing ~4.6% unemployment while everyone else is seeing ~12%. 83% of the non-institutional population that is not working does not have a college degree. 86% of those unemployed (still looking for work, in the labor pool) do not have a college degree. Those without college degrees have a participation rate of 61% compared to 75% for those with. The ratio of those not working to the entire non-institutional population is 46% for those without college degrees compared to 28% for those with college degrees. Hell, only 25% of the entire non-institutional population 16 and older has a fucking college degree or better.
Now granted, this doesn't take into consideration full-time/part-time, nor does it take into consideration wages, which are the rest of the story. Regardless, if you think this national tragedy is being written by "extend-and-pretenders" engaging in a round of moral hazard in between tennis lessons and rounds of golf, you're fucking deluded.
TD/Marla/Sacrilege: guys, you're killing me not being able to embed images. I know I'm not a contributor...but come on!
Yup, it's the move towards 22 hour a week temp agency jobs with zero benefits (subtract from your own pocket). And it's not just pothead teens who can't hang out at the BlockBuster for minimum wage; there are how many good construction people are sidelined? Do they have a degree? No. Can they put up a whole development worth of drywall in a week? Hell, yes.
I don't think the HELOC abusers in Cali are the whole story, but I find them representative of the masking of the debt deflation with unheard of Fed asset price support (or bankster largesse).
Current demand is intimately tied to the extension of the dream valuation, and will drop like Icarus if/when said support is no longer available or sufficient.
I think (and this is something I find myself saying fequently here) that we're speaking to the same point, but in different shades of gray. Going back even farther, current demand is intimately tied to consumption schedules (can't find the link to the research, it was posted here earlier this week IIRC, someone keep me honest). At the top-end of the population curve you have the start of the baby-boom retirement, which at the tail-end of that generation is seeing both:
1. Those people who are now at the end of their peak-earnings and have started shifting their behavior towards retirement
2. As a result of delaying the start of their families until well into their late 20s and early 30s, their children shift their consumption as they enter (or are in the middle of) college - a phase of life which has increasingly grown in length due to competitive forces, e.g. 2yr AA turns into a 4yr turns into 6 with internships turns into 9 when you toss in grad school.
Additionally, you're seeing people in the middle make sacrifices to re-enter school, either to complete a degree or go for a higher diploma/certification. These all have huge impacts on how people consume goods and services, and this is among the meat-and-potatoes of the US economy. I'll keep myself from going into full-blown soapbox mode; suffice to say, the economy is making a hard-turn to port.
Agreed...the demo shift and graying of the nation will be huge ( if the unemployed youth of today knew what was in store for them in a few decades, they'd be hunting the elderly for sport).
I see it as a shit fractal, with ugly to be found at several levels of detail.
Deflation.
Great comment, thank you. Just one quibble:
Are you referring to some phantom "pent up demand"? I'm not in that group. I have enough clothes, including shoes, suits, and shit I don't even wear, to last well past my lifetime.
First, thanks.
Second, no, just "general market forces". I'm not making a statement as to the magnitude of demand, simply that it exists. People will continue to buy TVs, stereos, sectional chairs, clothes...name any type of consumer product, and more often than not there's at minumum a replacement schedule of some kind. People have kids. People get fat. People grow old, change styles for various reasons. Different things become of greater or lesser importance at different phases of peoples' lives.
The scale at which inventory moves is far shorter than the scale at which these forces operate. While demand has certainly decreased cyclically, I think it's being amplified by folks knowing their purchasing power in these types of consumer goods has increased, which Knuckles above as keen to point out my inference. People who want to buy, don't have access to the cash or credit to do so. People who can, aren't, because they know they'll get it cheaper (or from your perspective, will only buy if it is cheaper since they already have it, going all the way down to $0).
We might benefit from recognizing the psychological aspect of the "buy" impulse being discussed. For years, even decades, the average Joe and Jane has been conditioned to seek comfort from emotional pain and uncertainty by frequent visits to the local mall.
Like someone addicted to the nicotine hit from smoking, it doesn't just disappear when the person wants it to. In fact, it gets even stronger when he or she is under emotional stress. It'll take a generation of economic stress to fully cleanse the system of the addictive obsession. And the "economic system" is designed to fan the flames of that addiction, not to facilitate the withdrawal.
It's gonna be ugly.
That's one way to look at it. I disagree with you on how the system is designed. The "system" is designed to efficiently allocate capital, which it does brutally well. That doesn't bode well for politicians who get elected/re-elected under banners reading "Are you better off now than you were [x] years ago". They need a measurable datapoint that shows not just someone, but everyone, has improved standards of living. Anything less is confirmation of the gross social/economic injustices present in our society; that, like, I want stuff, and like, they have stuff and I want to know, like, where's my stuff, you know? Not to get dramatic, but it's like we're going through a mass psychotic episode of Stockholm Syndrome.
We may be talking about different "systems" here. I'm talking about the Ponzi and its need to continuously expand by getting people and institutions to take on more and more credit on a exponential basis. Your mention of efficient capital allocation doesn't sound like the Ponzi.
And I agree about the Stockholm Syndrome. I wrote about this and more in my 5 part series "Welcome to the Insane Asylum".
Agree. And that's partly why I welcome the reset. Life should be more than simply shopping and buying crap. Especially considering how much of the environment we are constantly consuming in our single serving world.
I think Bush did a real disservice to our country when he extolled people to "go buy stuff" after 9/11 - to try to show the terrorists our 'patriotism'.
How about a life of farming, making things, procreating, killing enemies, and giving thanks to God for all the above? Would that be better?
IF Israel will strike Iran, it will be this weekend because of the Eid Al-Fitr celebration today and tomorrow.
Iran's soldiers are weakened from the monthlong fast and are now eating themselves silly.
: rolleyes :
Maybe the best and brightest of Mossad can slip something in their hummus (without stepping in front of a security camera this time, Hillel!).
Why would the strength of their soldiers make a difference to a bombing sortie?
The Teleprompter Tyrant is speaking AGAIN?
I grew weary of his lies more than a year ago. I can't stand to be lied to!
It amazes me how many people are still willing participants in their own deception. When the president tells lies, that's deceit. When people lie to themselves, that's delusion!
You voted for Bush how many times?
I saw what appears to be an officially created 9/11 fantasy last night on the history channel. It had Rumsfeld, Rice and Cheney all lying in front of the camera. They made a point of saying "Al Quaeda" every 10 seconds or so. It was a pathetic propaganda piece that they intend to be the official 9/11 record. Was total B/S.
I cannot remember who I voted for during the Bush elections. I cannot see that it matters UNLESS we vote for someone other than a democrat/repulican because they are the same thing.
Only a real change will make a difference.
Agreed. The alternate timeline with Gore and Kerry victories likely doesn't look much different...it's not like they'd have had a vastly different reaction to peak oil or terrorism.
You're asking millions of people to put down the petty squabbles that the PTB use to keep us emotional and divided and focus on the things that are really important to the republic. This is not our strong suit.
I know "my" votes for president here in Upstate New York will be canceled out by some dufus in NYC voting party lines.
So I have fun and write in a vote for Mickey Mouse every time!
I wrote in myself for every office here in CA; I'm better qualified than every candidate anyway.
FYI..from Shaeffer's Opening View, "On the sentiment front, we've noticed an interesting development in the Association for Individual Investors' weekly survey. Specifically, the bullish percentage jumped from 30.80% last week to 43.87% this week. This bullish reading represents the highest percentage since the week of April 15, or just before the SPX and DJIA set their highs for 2010."
Like I said, this rally appears to be fading.....
It's amazing how quickly everyone turned bullish. Everyone assumes we're trapped in a range that they can trade. Seems unlikely to go on forever - we just need a catalyst
Nah, my guess is that the survey consists of a couple of guys agreeing on what the number will be, just like the Dow and S&P ... then turn it over to the computers/media.
There is no bullish sentiment. It is all b/s.
Remove the ZIRP free money fuel and HFT Skynet market control and let the markets trade just today based upon buyers and sellers. I doubt youd have a DOW over 3,000 by close, so all the technicals talk is just rubbish.
President Obama’s news conference on the economy later in the morning
Ugh - can't wait to hear the latest PTB approved populust pap for the masses. Let me guess - Bush sucks, Republicans suck, we "can't afford" tax cuts for "the very wealthy" but it's absolutely vital we immediately spend $3T we don't have on various wreck and rebuild projects, and did I mention Bush still sucks?
Nah, they rarely go with the truth.
We're laughing at you, not with you, by the way.
Cool.
Have you and the other 8% figured out if you're going to fold on your principles and vote Repugnant or play the part of Perot this November?
Haven't decided.
Either way this all ends with a massive and well deserved crash, so I just need to figure if I want to watch the spectacle of The Unicorn Prince food-fighting daily with Speaker John TanningBed or letting it all come down on the Democraps.
I must admit that I love a good food fight.
Kabuki can be entertaining, with sufficient hallucinogens, but they stopped using food and moved onto feces.
Choose carefully (or wear a level-4 hazmat suit).
Poo throwing is actaully far more entertaining. And I don't need a hazmat suit or drugs to watch it on See-Span, only copius amounts of Diet Coke and popcorn.
Choose - heh, keep bringing the funny.
Yahoo Buzz misses you.
Bush sucks/ Obama sucks? Quit being played, player!
Okay then, what's your alternative?
Nader?
Revolucion Bolivar?
How do you 'quit being played' when you are consistently presented with two non-choices?
Sigh - you don't seem to know me, Big John. So let me give you a hint - yes, they all suck. Better?
Not really directed at you, particularly. More at the entire thread. By the way, I'm 6'5" and 240lbs and did not give myself that name. And you? You can dunk from the foul line and sport a large fro?
No worries, man.
And heh - no, not at all. I'm damned-awful at basketball - metric football was my sport.
You and I have something in common - though you've got a few inches on me (6'2") and I've got a couple pounds on you (245). No, some friends started calling me "Doctor J" after I got my PhD and I frankly thought that was disrespectful to Julius.
"Doc J" is actually a character in a movie - sort of obscure, nobody remembers it. Any guesses?
Michael J Fox movie?
Nope. But you're warm.
Modine. D'Onofrio. (And this will give it away) R Lee Ermey.
+ 50B
You called it Doc!
I could only stomach a couple minutes of him but you are either psychic or we have heard his rhetoric before!
Apologies for spamming the thread today, but nice sparring, docj.
Crazy idea before I split for my dayjob: "Exporting" American construction workers to China.
- Help China's domestic demand.
- They can pay the Americans in dollars to draw down their CA reserve.
- Previously unemployed construction workers can pay their morts.
Happy trails, 777. This was actually my "break" from work (yeah, early start today).
Cheers -
Yes, they could pay down their mortgages on their US$3/hr wages, but it would be very slowly......
Thank u, i found this for a long time.
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