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This chart needs no introduction... or explanation.
Courtey of John Lohman
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Infinity and beyond!
in reality, there is no infinity. in reality, the u.s. will die long before we get any further up the curve.
be dead anyway
I have a simple solution:
Redefine Public Debt. There - done. FASB did it to the banks. Biden wants to do it to the CPI.
Why not here? Just call public debt something like off balance-sheet previously instigated monetary obligations.
Carry on - nothing to see here.
Already done. Fannie & Freddie debt held off balance sheet, $5 trillion worth, much of it crappy subprime mortgages marked at par.
This chart doesn't include agency debt, 6-7 trillion already, so it is a Goldilocks scenario.
Dude, you stole my avatar!!!
Nationalise all US gold mines. Revalue gold to $10M / toz and settle all debt obligations in gold. Further metal production should meet future spending needs. Problem solved....oh yeah abolish the Fed and incarcerate those fucking bankers - all of 'em.
Nationalize private property! Brilliant idea Hugo. How are those cancer treatments coming along?
Definitely, sell it to MEEEEEEEEEEEEEE! I'll give you pennies on the 'strong dollah', honest! Hahahhahahahaha!
LOL! and don't forget the corrollary:
"Parabolic up..., parabolic____________"
I think we can all fill in the blank!
There is no such thing as a parabolic down for debt. The deficit is the difference between revenue/taxes and cost/spending.
The debt is a perpetually increasing function. So we need to increase revenue at the same rate or decrease spending. The welfare and quality of life for Americans can go parabolic down, but no such luck with debt.
Have you ever heard of 'default'?
Well... is a slope of negative infinity technically "parabolic," or is it something closer to "there is no spoon," "Leeloo Dallas multipass," etc?
Honestly, all political theater aside... What is the difference between 14 Trillion, 24 Trillion or 34 Trillion in debt? Can anybody really understand Billions, much less Trillions. American debt was near this level for a LONG LONG time, not just the last 3 years.
The train left the station back around 1970s when Nixon had to pay for Vietnam... if we survived from 5 Trillion to 14 Trillion. (roughtly from 2000-2011), what is another 10-20 trillion? Does it truly matter? Unless the market price in default. (And it certainly hasn't, S&P from 1350 to 1300 doesn't count, S&P at 750, maybe.) It is an binary step function. Now, debt at 24 Trillion is irrelevant to Americans. Interest rate at 15% is material and it is deadly....
So, all this, will go away... by Aug 2nd, and technically, America has had government shutdowns before, but never default. And we will nuke something before we default. Not to say that we won't default, but we will definitely nuke somebody first.
I don't think anybody here, in government or alive can truly understand the scale of a 14 Trillion debt. My point is that it is already bad, and all this is for show.
pardon, felt my input was needed.
/misinterpretation of need corrected/
This is a good attempt at some perspective.
And the pallets would be stacked 28 high to equal the $14T dollar debt number.
Wrong. US debt was less than 1 trillion only 20 years ago.
...we will definitely nuke somebody first.
...we will definitely nuke somebody first.
We'll nuke ourselves and then start pointing bony fingers at others.
the correct answer is aggregate demand, because bernanke says aggregate demand is the name of the game, and parabolic aggregate demand is the superior economic condition. i think we should let our genius central bankers (bernanke must have an iq of at least 250, how else would he be given the job?) take care of monetary policy, and we should get back to shopping at wal mart, eating corn syrup and drinking delicious fluoride water.
No, nukes will be dropping and skynet will be destroyed before the 2nd half outcome can be charted. So even when we're dead the chart will only read parabolic up. It never ends.
The radiation will kill the computers, too.
Kind of agree, the only thing that backs the USD is a nuclear arsenal (or nucular as Bush used to say)
I'm expecting a 61.8% fibonacci retracement at some point when governments start to collapse :)
the laws of exponents are a bitch
I like pretty pictures :D
When I was grading papers as a grad assistant if the students claimed a curve was exponential but they didn't plot it on a log scale, they lost points. Didn't want to do it, but felt I owed it to them.
Seems silly to me. An exponential function is what it is regardless of what scale you plot it on.
Exponential function on a linear scale increases rapidly and non-linearly. On a log scale it looks linear.
I think the linear scale gets the idea across to non-technical people much better.
I agree with the graduate assistant, see my previous post. The graph is a natural result of math, and that is just another tool used by all sides to skew their argument.
Still, it is a pretty chart, though.
We used to call this a "boner" chart. If he's not careful, we will soon be calling it a "Boehner" chart.
The most important decision you have to make is what do you stand for Danny- goodness, or badness.
IT'S IN THE HOLE!!
Always love a good Caddyshack reference. How 'bout a Fresca?
'You'll get nothing and like it!"
It's easy to grin
When your ship comes in
And you've got the stock market beat,
But the man worthwhile
Is the man who can smile,
When his shorts are too tight in the seat.
"Where'd you come from? A Scotch ad?"
Fresca™ is THE MOST God-awful swill I ever tasted!
ship has been steered back onto course
Said the Captain of the Titanic to the First Mate
She's made of iron, sir. I assure you she can sink...and she will.
lookin' good to me!
Why didn't they print it in black and white?
Don't they realize colour prints cost more money?
what a waste of money...
let's just stick with the CBO baseline then everyone can be happy :)
Let's look at the history of IMF cost projections to debtor nations instead - if the IMF says "it is going to cost x and your country only a little fucked" then that can be reasonably reliably interpreted as actually meaning "it is going to cost 5-10x and you should hedge by either going long lubricants or going long steel reinforced undergarments"
Yes it does.. Im color blind
Make the colors GOLD and SILVER...
Phase 2 of the crisis: "Broken Promises". Where everyone is awakening to the fact that all of the promises made implictly (through fiat currency, a claim on future wealth), or explicitly (e.g. medicare, social security), are seen to be in conflict. Not all promises will come true, so whose promise will be kept.
It will gradually dawn on everyone that none of the promises will be kept.
There will be great disillusionment at all levels of every society, globally. If there's one thing you can do, beyond helping yourself and others, it's to help others deal with the grief of a dead illusion. Beyond starving, that will be one of the hardest things for people to bear.
I couldn't have said it better. May I quote you?
within 60 years the debt could go to zero if the U.S. defaults.
The CBO should change the term 'baseline' projection to 'freebase' projection...
Coffee through nostril warning should be attached to your comment.
Ron Paul Exclusive: Who’s Regulating Washington?
money quote from Ron Paul....
“We have drifted because we had so much prosperity, but we can’t drift forever. We can’t live on borrowed money and printed money forever "
The banks are regulated by The Fed which is run by the banks which are regulated by The Fed which is run by the banks which are regulated by The Fed which is run by the banks which are regulated by The Fed which is run by the banks which are regulated by The Fed which is run by the banks which are regulated by The Fed which is run by the banks which are regulated by The Fed which is run by the banks which are regulated by The Fed which is run by the banks which are regulated by The Fed which is run by the banks which are regulated by The Fed, etc.
That is not the strange thing. What is strange is that everyone seems to be okay with such a blatant conflict of interest. Carry on. We deserve what is coming.
come on say it with me boomer's children in USA: IMF = I am fucked
no jobs (that pay a real salary to support a family)
no education (or pay mortgage to get a sh!tty one)
no social security (when you retire)
no healthcare (but everyone else, poor, old, rich get one)
no house (unless your parents bought one)
you forgot "no internal locus of control"
but wonderful and interesting times ahead with several dozen million unemployable little emperors.
true. all the attitude, none of the substance. That is the culture American elites have shaped for generations.
I think you just found a silver lining!
"Yes we can!"
OK, let's see what you've got, millenials.
Ie., "we're toast"!
You can eat toast.
We might be in a jam also. Maybe even a pickle. Quite a feast ahead.
In less than three years, that chart will probably look like the "good ol' days" when we weren't supposed to hit 200% of GDP with our debt until after 2030.
Recovery Summer(s) in the U.S., Europe, Japan (and China?)....
Kick the can of medicine that could be taken now up that exponential slope of hope!
the only response i can produce is...
Those folks at the IMF sure have some lofty goals.
This is the most bullish chart I have seen in awhile.
Go long NFLX, LNKD, P, and GM.
If you go out a bit more it'll do a loop-da-loop and finish with a stunning show stopper.
now I know why ancient Greece coins show an "Eule(r)"
that chart looks tame
Collapse the real estate market well and good, wait 18 months for the banksters to finish doing their big zombie death scene, and we (the bulk of the US populous) are back in the saddle again. It's only our glorious masters' refusal to envision a future that doesn't include rent-seeking slime getting paid whatever they feel they're worth whenever they feel they need it, performance be damned. The jigs up.
I'm gonna run for congress. Proof! that the end is nigh...
The jig is up.
But will it be televised?
LCD's picture appears to be a bit scrambled.
I got on a city bus and found a vacant seat, I thought I saw my future bride walking up the street, I shouted to the driver hey conductor, you must slow down. I think I see her, please let me off this bus!
ran into the devil babe
he loaned me twenty bills
OT: Check out YUM's US numbers:
Even the beefy flavored wood pulp in Taco Bell's Beefy Grande Thingymabob is skyrocketing!
March 21, 2011
SAN ANTONIO (AP) - Police say a San Antonio Taco Bell customer enraged that the seven burritos he ordered had gone up in price fired an air gun at an employee and later fired an assault rifle at officers before barricading himself into a hotel room.
Read more: http://www.kfdm.com/articles/san-42030-officers-antonio.html#ixzz1S1bCjKqh
lol! I remember that! gf lives in SA. It's cool though cuz Bernank and Barney Frank say there's no inflation. Except possibly in fake beef.
Seeking a sugar daddy...check out my curves...
Who cares about 2020.
We're trying to get to the end of this administration without a civil war...
2020 is the end of this administration after martial law is imposed.
23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism
Goals for the next 4 years:
1. Keep self and family alive.
2. Don't shoot anyone (self-defense).
Goal 1. takes precedence over goal 2. (a "nice-to-have").
For $16.80 you can buy a $100 Trillion Dollar Zimbabwe note. How long will it be before 16 yuan will buy a $100 Trillion US Fed Reserve note?
The blue line looks a little like today's action in Silver.
Does anyone know why the about $ 6 trillion of public debt owed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is not included in the US federal debt? In my view these debts should be included thus pushing the US debt to GDP to 150% similar to Greece.
The usual creative bookkeeping. And there's plenty more off-budget debt sloshing around the Pentagon - black budget ops and etc. It's all a Ponzi, and to keep it going they lie incessantly. The flipside of the lie is the GDP figure: itself grossly inflated.
this looks like the projection Mao tse tung or Lenin made for the pursuit of happiness under communism...we know how the chart really evolved...
they oughta know seein' as how they and their cronies in the CBs are responsible for most of it.
Is 1000% a lot? Because I'll probably be dead by 2070.
And the difference between the CBO baseline and the CBO alternative is...hold for it...a minor "tweak".
Hysterical chart. What decision process goes into determining how far to go out on the time-scale/X axis?
we shall march to the gamma of the newest nuclear-powered hi freek debt clock, as we walk the plank of time?
Must cheer up. Things could be worse.
So, I did. And they are.
oh things can and will get much worse. austerity's downward spiral here it comes!
no way...Ben has declared QE-infinity is open house from now on.
I wonder what public debt would look like if the public had an opinion on which debt to make public. Sure Hank Paulson was thinking of the plebecites when issuing bailouts in 2008. I assume the Fed's Maiden Lane purchases factor into that lovely looking curve?
Strange how a non-public institution like the Fed shares it's profits privately, and it''s debt's publicly.
End the Fed? Are you sure you want to do this now? It is primed to share lot's of useless paper with eveyone. Perhaps the Fed is now simply the toilet bowl of the US Treasury instead.
i'm starting to get like my dad. not that he's not a caring guy, but he's 93. we'll be chatting about something and he'll get to: really! what the hell do i care?
could this be a secret of longevity?
not to mention exponential debt conditioning, based on "evolution"?
we're already to the point where sea shells are worth more than then FRN's. what's next? rocks as "assets"? like carbon? how about fuking flatulence?
There are edible rocks actually:
I guess you can concentrate farts and fuel a car?
how about fuking flatulence?
Don't forget who run Bartertown!
Slewie, your old man is onto something. I well remember an interview by Michael Feldman (Whad 'Ya Know) with Quentin Crisp. This was years before Crisp died. Feldman asked him what the secret to happiness was. Crisp replied with no hesitation, "A studied indifference to others." There is much wisdom in that if some thought is applied to the statement. He didn't say no concern at all, or total indifference. The key word is "studied". Some folks deserve our regard and some deserve none. The skill is in determining the gradations.
Time to apply studied indifference to future generations of Americans. They'll look like Liberians, with the lifestyles to match! Huzzah! (semi-sarc)
What would make this chart really interesting: 2 more lines, one showing the projected US tax revenue, and a second line showing interest on the accumulated debt. I imagine they cross well before the right side of the chart.
Well -- everything's under control then, since these buttwipes "know" the future right out to 2080+.
Are we paying these twats for this crapola when they couldn't even see the Great Recession coming?
only if we trust them, totally, this is the best case scenario. this is the wealth we can build for our children and grandchildren and beyond, if we keep pretending everyone will always get paid back.
is there a problem?
is there a problem?
Nope slewie, can't see a problem at all. Damn, that Kool-aid tastes good...
ummm...i've been freezing mine and enjoying them as suppositorieZ.
buttwipes uber alles!
Any chart that projects more than two years ahead is a complete waste of bits/ink, unless it is demonstrating some mathematical impossibility.
I vote we take a break from financial terrorism
and enjoy the wonderful chemtrails waiting outside.
With only a little wind, you'll hardly notice the ozone.
Blue and green shoots!
That's good, right?
What about the fact that the value of the currency is an inverted version of the debt chart?
that would indicate a minor redundancy in
so, the imf chart can be, like: silver = blue; gold = green line. they'd be much steeper to their present prices if the scales were adjusted to them.
What a legacy we're handing out children.
It's not going to be your children to take the hit, it's going to be you.
Swap last 2 digits each year and you'll see the true picture
The comments about the NZ dollar are hitting close to home. I'm trying to find the right entry point to move my US dollars here to NZ (as I moved here recently as part of my escape plan). But the carry trade is killing me, sending the US $ to lows and the NZ $ to all-time highs. I keep waiting for a shoe to drop in Europe to breathe a little life in the US $ long enough for me to make the transfer.
Thought this was the week, but then Bernanke and FOMC start pushing for QE III, and bang, I'm off 4%. I still thing there is one final "flight to quality" (by tradition) for the US $, but who knows when that will be.
I think I will have to US$ cost average in. Because my timing is about as bad as it can be.
don't get caught up in a NZ fault line, to run away from a USD default line...
How are the gun laws there working out for you?
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