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Today's Winner: Gold

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's main winning asset class was gold, with ongoing weakness across most other assets, except for bonds of course, which continues to price in concerns about deflation. The divergence we noted so frequently last week, between stocks and bonds is now a thing of the past, and has been replaced by that between gold and bonds. Yet gold's rise is hardly driven by expectations of inflation as oil, a much more inflation sensitive commodity tanked. In other words, the QE lite thesis is playing out as predicted, although Goldman's prediction yesterday about a surge in gold likely also put the idiot mutual fund money in the bid for spot. Technically, gold is parked at resistance at the highest level over the past 40 days. All those who have been frothing about an imminent liquidation-induced plunge like that experienced on July 16, have been silenced. Should the 1,220 resistance be breached tomorrow, the next level to keep track of will be the record highs from June. At that point whether the LBMA will follow up with its patented choke (g)old, is anyone's guess.

And for the Fib fans, gold has now retraced 50% of the recent drop from the all time high of $1265.

 

 

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Thu, 08/12/2010 - 16:20 | 518544 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Tyler:

Credit Suisse Follows Barclays in Layoffs

August 12, 2010, 2:47 am

Credit Suisse Group, the giant Swiss bank, said it will follow Barclays in making staff cuts.

“We are currently reducing headcount by approximately 75 in the United Kingdom in the investment bank and certain support functions,” the Zurich-based bank said in an e-mailed statement. “This involves both shifting resources to growth areas and adjusting capacity to meet client needs and to manage costs across the business,” the bank added.

Barclays Capital, the investment-banking arm of Barclays Group, is eliminating about 400 information-technology workers and support staff, a person told DealBook on Wednesday.  While both cuts are said to be routine, they follow a difficult quarter for large banks, where deal flow is slow and trading profits thinner than previous periods.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:25 | 518690 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Since bob went O/T, I will too, for a moment!  Anyone who pulled $500 from the ATMs is welcome to brag about it in this thread.  I did!

...

Since GS went in for gold going up, I may just wait a little while before I buy more (physical).  But, I will not wait long.  I will sleep a tad better once I am at 7% of my net in gold.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:26 | 518830 william the bastard
william the bastard's picture

sleep wit G Gordon will ya!

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:55 | 519341 ATTILA THE WIMP
Thu, 08/12/2010 - 16:23 | 518556 ZEITGEIST
ZEITGEIST's picture

anyone seen that idiot Johhnt Bravo????

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 16:45 | 518604 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

He's hunkered over the trough swilling his lunch, but perhaps I can fill in for him:

Anyone who bought gold at 1260 and sold today lost money. My predictions are always right.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:09 | 518647 akak
akak's picture

And the dollar has gained value since 1985!

And Akak predicted $25,000 gold, because he made a joke to that effect!

And there are only two possible outcomes to the current economic situation: a continuation of the status-quo, or Armageddon and a "Mad Max" world!                      NOTHING else is possible!

And inflation is what brings us true prosperity!

And my predictions are always correct!

 

(Believe it or not, JB said all those things today!)

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:15 | 518670 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oh, and the middle ground of Mad Max and "Smiling Ben" (sorry, I like that better), is what we have at present.

Strikes, food shortages, escalating fuel prices won't ever happen anywhere as the result of overt and covert monetization.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:14 | 518795 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

No, I think that all those things will happen next week, when the United States becomes Zimbabwe, and our currency is worth 5 cents and we're all eating canned ham and cleaning our AR's.

This will be right before gold hits 2000 on the way to 25000 and then 54000.

Gold is the only real money.  Please give me your dollars so I can use them for toilet paper.
That's all the dollar will be worth in three months.

Remember, the U.S. = Zimbabwe.  We have no differences in our economy whatsoever.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:24 | 518826 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I will be cleaning my AK, Sr. VP Bravo.       :)

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:28 | 518843 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I like the AK, cause it has big bullets and you can roll it in the mud and still shoot it.

I like the AR / M16 family for accuracy though... even a novice can hit targets at 200 yards!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:49 | 518907 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yep AK, takes a lickin' keeps on tickin'.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:51 | 518910 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I still like my AR better though, I think.  I have both.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:31 | 518976 jakoye
jakoye's picture

Sure, but even if you hit something (man, mineral or vegetable) with 5.56mm, that's no guarantee you're gonna stop it.

I simply prefer 7.62mm (fired from something more accurate than an AK, thank you), because when you do hit your target, it generally goes down and stays down.

It's a pretty simple equation: bigger bullets = better kills.

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:50 | 518994 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

(fired from something more accurate than an AK, thank you)

So what do you shoot your 7.62x39 from then?

 

Disclosure: Not an AK shooter.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:13 | 519024 jakoye
jakoye's picture

I have only shot friends' AKs. I have never owned a 7.62mm rifle.

Me wants ones though. It would be very precious to me, very precious indeed.

Doing my research now, trying to see what the best option is. It may be that I end up with an AK myself, but I like to think that something better's been created in the last 60 years or so.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:20 | 519028 jakoye
jakoye's picture

A buddy of mine recently bought one of these:

http://sigsauer.com/Products/ShowCatalogProductDetails.aspx?categoryid=3...

5.56, but I'll still be shittin' gold nuggets when he lets me shoot a few clips at the range.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 21:27 | 519091 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

How about something in the order of this:

http://www.dpmsinc.com/store/products/?prod=5355

AR, direct gas platform, 7.62 NATO. A little snappier than x39, but better round in every aspect except maybe price.  Still have excellent availability if SHTF.

Also 100% made in USA.

The sportical is one of the entry level .308 AR's, if you really want to reach out and touch someone, look at:

http://www.dpmsinc.com/firearms/firearm.aspx?id=19

***To whoever junked my question/comment about not shooting AK - Go fuck yourself.  I never said there was anything wrong with them, I was trying to keep bias out of the question.  That being said, I hope your commie, pinko, sheet metal stamped parts p.o.s. blows up in your face.

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:18 | 519138 jakoye
jakoye's picture

That is a sweet-lookin' piece of death machinery. I love it!

I'd love to find some expert reviews. Guess I gotta subscribe to Guns & Ammo!

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 01:01 | 519348 ATTILA THE WIMP
Fri, 08/13/2010 - 13:15 | 520200 jakoye
jakoye's picture

Interesting content. Thanks for the link, Attila.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:26 | 519150 living on the edge
living on the edge's picture

I have to disagree somewhat with your comment on the 5.56mm round relative to stopping power. The newer 75-77 grain hollow-points (need a 1 in 7 or 8 twist barrel) and the 55 grain M-193 are impressive to say the least. The latter round being available as surplus and both have very effective penetration and stopping power. NATO decided to use the 62 grain SS-109 steel penetrator bullet and these rounds have been less than effective (lethality) in Iraq and Afghanistan.   

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 13:17 | 520203 jakoye
jakoye's picture

Sure, but how prevalent is the ammo you speak of? I guess any 5.56mm rifle is better than no rifle at all and with the ubiquity of available 5.56mm ammo in the US, it would be silly NOT to have a rifle that fired such caliber.

But we all can have our favorites, eh?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:56 | 519002 duo
duo's picture

I have a 1917 Enfield 30-06, old WWI gun with the stock cut down and a scope.  Deadly accurate.  Bolt action, though.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:27 | 519035 jakoye
jakoye's picture

Damn, that must be HEAVY. But solid.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 04:04 | 519417 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I've shot some nice groups on the einy but it's not as accurate as the .303 british. I have the spanish mauser that was used to develope the .308 cartridge. But it shoots like crap cause the barrel is nearly shot out.

I just love any small ring or large ring mauser.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:26 | 518831 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Remember, the U.S. = Zimbabwe. We have no differences in our economy whatsoever.

No one on this forum has ever said that except you. The reason why people bring up Zimbabwe is simple. You praise inflation as the creator of new technology and the driver of increased productivity while that simply isn't true. And the most obvious example one might employ to dispel your fallacious observations regarding inflation is Zimbabwe.

Get it Johnny? Nobody says that "the US is just like Zimbabwe." We say, "If inflation is a boon to an economy as you suggest, what went wrong in Zimbabwe?"

Would you like to stop beating the straw man and answer that question for once?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:34 | 518860 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Because there's no similarity to the current situation and anything that happened in Zimbabwe.

Inflation IS growth.  Without inflation, prices would never increase, and neither would profits.
2% inflation is good.  200000% is not good.

Yet, as long as the money supply does not exceed asset prices, we will not see inflation at all!

I'm not the one who mentions Zimbabwe.  It's goldbugs.  I merely point out how false the analogy is.  First, we're not a backward ass African country with a two cent dictator for one.  We have the reserve currency.  We have the biggest economy in the world.  We have the biggest military in the world.

All of those things will ensure that there isn't even a similarity in outcome.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:58 | 518923 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Inflation IS growth.  Without inflation, prices would never increase, and neither would profits.

There was price deflation in the United States throughout the nineteenth century. So you believe that the American economy was smaller in 1900 than it was in 1801? Would you care to provide some specific examples of that for us, Johnny? I was under the impression that the Industrial Revolution changed the face of America in that century, that the US had gone from horse drawn carts to locomotives, automobiles and on to the verge of air transport. I thought that the time it took for a message to cross the continent went from several months to several seconds, first with the invention of the telegraph and then the telephone. I thought that the average person enjoyed the changes in their choices of entertainment which went from watching the occasional traveling road show and amateur bird call presentation to listening to virtuosos on the phonograph and watching moving pictures.

But none of that happened because there was deflation instead of inflation, right Johnny?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:23 | 518968 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I posted a reply but it's gone.  Hmmmm.... 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:30 | 519041 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

No,

 

you didn't.

 

.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:28 | 518834 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Pathetic. I responded with a reasonable middle ground territory, and rather to respond to that, you take it to a Mad Max scenario.

Are you as bankrupt as your arguments, or does JPM keep you above water? It sure as hell can't be the lead in your brain which does.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:30 | 518848 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

This IS the middle ground!

Is that so hard for you to grasp?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:30 | 518849 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Is the situation in Greece so hard for you to grasp?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:35 | 518868 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Is the notion that we're not even comparable to Greece so hard to grasp?

There isn't one similarity you can mention between the U.S. and those boy lovers that is relevant.

We're not some little piss poor third world Eastern European country using somebody else's currency, with a 5 billion dollar economy.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:38 | 518879 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Greece was put in the situation it currently is through deficit spending. But I guess it's totally different when the US does it.

Oh, and your arrogant, obnoxious attitude really suits you. "little piss poor third world Eastern European country" - there's so many things factually wrong with that sentence, I don't even know where to start.

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:47 | 518899 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

It is totally different when the US does it.

First, we have a central bank, and Greece doesn't.  We have the world's reserve currency.  We have the world's largest economy.
Those things alone make a huge difference.

Is Greece not poor?  Are they not in Eastern Europe?  Maybe they're in the second world.  Otherwise, I don't see what is so factually wrong with that statement.

You can't even compare the U.S. to Greece.  There isn't even a remote similarity at al, except that Republicans tell you there is.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:05 | 518937 doggings
doggings's picture

There isn't one similarity you can mention between the U.S. and those boy lovers that is relevant.

er.. there is at least one, youre actually more broke and indebted than them.

much more in fact.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:21 | 518966 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

No we're not.  We didn't have to go begging to keep our country from defaulting.

We don't have other countries bailing us out.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:54 | 519000 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

It's statements like that, that demonstrate the ignorance of your youth and strip ANY credibility from your argument.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:58 | 519211 hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

Yep.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:22 | 519031 tmosley
tmosley's picture

JB thinks that math works differently as your numbers get larger.  He does not understand how asinine this assumption is, because he is fundamentally dishonest.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:50 | 519192 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

To respond at all ohnny Bravo is to encourage him. Ignore him completely.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:33 | 518856 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

Good one Jonny!

 

You are correct sir, gold is going to 200 like you predicted, not today, it's up ... but soon it will get there,

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:47 | 518900 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Now I'm even complimenting myself, since I'm obviously Nadler.  Wow, what has the world come to?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:50 | 519058 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You wanna man up about it, JB?  I'll tell you what, one year from today (September 12th, 2011) you can give me one American gold eagle for today's price from APMEX, including delivery, which comes to $1297.84.  You can cover this bet at any time you wish, but I will deliver payment (say via paypal, or a similar service), which will be credited to your account upon my receipt of the gold.

This bet is perfect for you and your fellow gold trolls, because it rewards or punishes based upon how right or wrong the given party is.  Know that I will only accept physical delivery of an American Gold Eagle.  This means that even if spot is $250, and you find that you have to pay a $7000 premium to get physical bullion, you still must pay it.  Of course, if spot is $250, and an eagle is available for $50 more than that, you will prfit handsomely.

What do you say?  Are you man or coward? 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:48 | 518734 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

The dollar has gained value since 1985, relative to other currencies.

You were saying we should have a zerohedge convention at 25000.  I already posted that, you saw it, and you can't deny it.
Look at your posts.  You're not joking at all in here! 

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-assumptions-vs-reality

I never said that there are only two outcomes, but we ARE exactly in between the best and worse case scenarios (for those of you that can do math)

Inflation IS a good thing.

And, my predictions regarding gold HAVE been correct.
You can't post one that's wrong!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:55 | 518740 akak
akak's picture

Again: Utter nonsense and lies!

Hey everyone, are you all enjoying that APPRECIATING dollar since 1985!  I know my cost of living has dropped since then --- how about yours?

(Johnny, that is called a joke, so don't go quoting me hereafter and try to claim that I actually said that my cost of living has fallen since 1985!)

And thank you for once again stating outright that "inflation is a good thing"!  It only goes to completely discredit you as any sort of intelligent or knowledgeable, much less honest, human being.  I suggest we ask those Latin Americans who had their savings wiped out in the 1960s, 70s, 80s, and 90s about your thesis, much less the people of Zimbabwe more recently.  And if you ever tried to peddle such insulting absurdities to several of my retired family members, you could count yourself lucky if you escaped with just a hard kick in the gonads!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:59 | 518758 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Yeah, because I'm really afraid of you or your family members.  Especially retired ones.  LMAO!

You still don't see that the United States is different than Zimbabwe?  Oh, okay.  I guess you're right then.

You weren't joking when you were talking about your zero hedge convention at gold 25000.  Anybody who reads the thread can see that.  Read it in context and it just proves my point more.

Well whatever.  Say I'm lying.  Gold is breaking down now at this level.  It made its fib retracement.  If it breaks this level, the max is at 1300, with a stop at 1265.

Yet, that isn't going to happen.  We'll see tomorrow.  Until then, try to keep the personal attacks to a minimum, or I'll go cry to Tyler like you do!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:09 | 518783 akak
akak's picture

1) You fail to address the point that inflation is hidden tax which funnels wealth from the average citizen to the government and the politically well-connected, and hits those who are retired or on fixed income the hardest.   You deny the misery and financial destitution that inflation and currency devaluations and collapses have brought to hundreds of millions if not billions of people since the advent of the fiat currency age in the early 20th century.

2) You engage in the simplistic and oh-so-easily refuted argumentive tactic of the Boolean Fallacy --- "If not A, then B and only B" --- as well as strawmen arguments of your own creation and which exist only in your own mind.  "If the status-quo does not hold, then the only possible outcome is a Mad Max world".

3) You continue to lie about some supposed prediction I made, when anyone reading hte thread can clearly read that I did NOT do so, and in fact expressed deep skepticism towards such a prediction.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:18 | 518804 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Without inflation, there would be no growth.  Without growth, there wouldn't be a growing economy.  It's simple really.

Inflation = growth.  Deflation = recession.  

Inflation is necessary to some extent to grow the economy.

I'm not the one advocating a Mad Max world.  Goldbugs are.  54000 an ounce?  Okay, well the dollar would only have to decrease 98% for that to happen.

Oh, I guess that's logical.
I'm predicting GROWTH in the future, not the Mad Max scenario the "gold to 54000" crew is predicting.

And you did obviously think gold was going that high.  You can read the thread, and anybody else can.  You were all excited about meeting your buddy chumbawamba and the like.  Post it.  Let the people decide.  I guarantee that the only reason you don't is because you know what you said.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:35 | 518864 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oh, I see. Growth IS inflation.

Right, so an increase in worker productivity is basically just us printing money at a faster rate.

Got it.

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:37 | 518874 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Money is only printed when there is an inefficient supply of dollars to meet supply.

Inflation comes before money printing.  Printing money is just the way to ensure that people have enough money to cover the inflation.
Without the inflation, the economy would never grow.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:41 | 518881 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

OK, OK, I've got it. Tomorrow, I will talk my boss into me skiving off for the day. APPARENTLY, we just have to print money for making up for the lost productivity. That will make the economy grow, no need for anyone to work.

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:43 | 518890 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

You obviously didn't listen to a damn thing I just said.

You're too busy making arguments that don't make sense.

Money printing comes AFTER growth, not before.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:09 | 519017 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Everytime theres a gold thread its the same thing.

A few rational people simply 'suggest' gold probably wont reach $2000 by the next decade, then they get junked and called idiots; whereas the gold bugs suggest things like the apocalypse, and all is well and the +100000s come flying in.

Its a waste defending said theory here JB... then again itd be boring to be agreed with all the time as well.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 22:51 | 519191 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

 why do they use the inflation argument, when m3 is in the toilet.. there are so many better reasons, but the simple will remain simple.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:44 | 519050 Monetary Lapse ...
Monetary Lapse of Reason's picture

This is really spurious garbage.. not at all correct.  Growth in a debt-based money system is growth of debt, which does not necessarily have to be associated with inflation, but certainly has been in recent history (1971).  There is nothing that says you cannot grow the economy, aka GDP, aka total debt, without concommitant inflation.  As long as goods vs dollars are in the same balance, i.e. both growing in availability, there will be no inflation.  I am not saying that this is likely vs. the Bravo scenario.. just that is it in no way a mathematical identity. 

 

Gold will keep going up here over the long term.  We have been in a 30 year bull market for bonds... and we are just in the early stages (first 10 years) of a bull market in real money, real monetary metal whose value cannot be destroyed by Governments.  Most people don't own Gold... but the awareness is growing.  For God's sake, Cramer extrolls Gold at the end of every show now.  They love Gold in India.. they are loving it in China more every day.  If you have any ideas of owning Gold... buy now or you will for sure not have the balls to buy as it hits the next phase in it's exponential future.  Once the true wealth of the world starts to pile in... you will be priced out.       

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:38 | 518870 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Without inflation, there would be no growth.  Without growth, there wouldn't be a growing economy.  It's simple really.

There was price deflation in the United States throughout the nineteenth century. So you believe that the American economy was smaller in 1900 than it was in 1801? Would you care to provide some specific examples of that for us, Johnny?

I was under the impression that the Industrial Revolution changed the face of America in that century, that the US had gone from horse drawn carts to locomotives, automobiles and on to the verge of air transport. I thought that the time it took for a message to cross the continent went from several months to several seconds, first with the invention of the telegraph and then the telephone. I thought that the average person enjoyed the changes in their choices of entertainment which went from watching the occasional traveling road show and amateur bird call presentation to listening to virtuosos on the phonograph and watching moving pictures.

But none of that happened because there was deflation instead of inflation, right Johnny?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:38 | 518877 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Except for that the fact that there was deflation during this time is not a fact at all.

I would love to see proof of this.

You don't have any though, do you?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:42 | 518887 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Looks about even to me in terms of inflation versus deflation:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/20/US_Historical_I...

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:17 | 518959 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Bravo:

You said: Looks about even to me in terms of inflation versus deflation: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/20/US_Historical_I...

Yes, it looks "about even" but there was a slight deflationary trend. But let's give you the benefit of the doubt and say it's "about even" -- that there was no net inflation or deflation. Where does that leave you?

You said: Inflation IS growth.  Without inflation, prices would never increase, and neither would profits

and

Without inflation, there would be no growth.  Without growth, there wouldn't be a growing economy.  It's simple really.

So are you still insisting that there was no progress in the United States during the entire course of the Industrial Revolution? If there was no growth or profit, what specifically do you think made it so industrial and so revolutionary?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:21 | 518965 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

There was growth and profit.

Growth and profit does not go in a straight line, however.

Also, the industrial revolution didn't really take off until the end of the 19th century.  You see a huge amount of inflation in the early part of the 20th century.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:50 | 518982 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

That's the cognitive dissonance speaking. As I detailed above and as any elementary school student could tell you (at least in my day) the 19th century was a period of explosive growth. You can deny that but that doesn't make it so.

Inflation didn't get off and running in the 20th century until after the birth of the Federal Reserve and WWI. In the 19th century there was something called "The Miracle of Compound Interest." You see, in a world of sound money and banking, people -- both rich and poor -- could put their savings in a bank and earn a rate of interest which grew their wealth. Importantly, the slight deflationary trend of the period (due to sound money and entrepreneurial expertise) meant that the money they saved did not lose purchasing power but, in fact, gained purchasing power.

That was a very good thing.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:38 | 518945 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

The Imaginary Evils of Deflation

Growth deflation should be the prevailing trend in a healthy progressing economy. It is only because of years of rampant money supply growth, endemic under a fiat currency system, that inflation has become the accepted norm. As Salerno notes, “throughout the nineteenth century and up until the First World War, a mild deflationary trend prevailed in the industrialized nations as rapid growth in the supplies of goods outpaced the gradual growth in money supply that occurred under the classical gold standard.”

http://mises.org/daily/1040

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:17 | 518800 Freebird
Freebird's picture

US today? - Zimbabwe, no.  Future more than possible. Today - Greece. Feel better?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:19 | 518805 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

The dollar isn't going to decline by 98%, which is what it would take for the FOFOA prediction to come true.

The United States has nothing in common with Zimbabwe OR Greece.  Well, maybe a little in common, but we are not economically similar.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:24 | 518824 Freebird
Freebird's picture

There's a naughty boy here with homework to do.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:27 | 518838 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I'm on break.  Fall Semester starts 8/23.  Summer semester ended 7/30.

With no girlfriend home today, what else will I do?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:35 | 518863 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Revert back to your old handle?

Sat, 08/14/2010 - 00:02 | 521292 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

LOL he doesn't really have a girlfriend. You're being gullible.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:35 | 518869 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I'm so sorry to hear that you injured your right hand.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:48 | 518905 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

What a stupid post.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:59 | 519005 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Actually, I thought it was kind of funny.  It also just melded right in with the flow of the thread.  Perfect.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:04 | 519225 living on the edge
living on the edge's picture

CC,

Your avatar is a reflection of JB in the mirror (on a date). LOL

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:07 | 519233 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

i was wondering really what that was a picture of? what is that, pray tell?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 23:18 | 519251 living on the edge
living on the edge's picture

I was wondering myself actually but I have concluded it's a mirror image of Johnny Bravo....

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 08:12 | 519541 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

That would be a picture of our esteemed Congressman, Barney Frank.  You decide why you're looking at him from that angle. 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:12 | 518948 doggings
doggings's picture

The dollar isn't going to decline by 98%, which is what it would take for the FOFOA prediction to come true.

it already did once

http://buygoldsilver.org/gold/

The United States has nothing in common with Zimbabwe OR Greece.  Well, maybe a little in common, but we are not economically similar.

 

yes you are, youre just as fucked long term.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:18 | 518962 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

More fucked than who?

The Euro and Japan will default before we do.

Sat, 08/14/2010 - 00:03 | 521294 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The euro and japan will news as awful fucking crap. But it will be a molehill compared to America's problems.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:01 | 518760 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Also, please post my incorrect prediction.  Thanks!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:58 | 519006 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

You have been saying that gold will go to 800 for almost a year now. How about that for starters?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:52 | 519059 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Hey moron, you're wrong in this post.  THIS VERY POST.

The USDX was 150 in 1985.  It's what, 82 today?  Damn near cut in half VERSUS OTHER CURRENCIES.  That's not to mention anything about the loss of purchasing power of ALL currencies versus real goods.

With hindsight that poor, I'm not sure I would lend any credence to your foresight.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:10 | 518663 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

And EVERYONE who EVER bought gold, bought at the highest price ever and sold lower.

FACT!

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:22 | 518682 akak
akak's picture

Yes, EVERYONE who ever bought gold bought it at its interday high of $850 on January 25th, 1980!  Gold was NEVER purchased at any other time by anyone! 

(Don't annoy me with the fact that probably far less than 1% of all the gold ever bought by Americans was purchased when gold was anywhere near its high in January of 1980!)

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:29 | 518693 SPUTNIK
SPUTNIK's picture

I'll tell u one thing. Indian public has almost 15000 tonnes of gold and now there is more than 25000 tonnes gold. India is the riches country in the world now.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:42 | 518884 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

As it was once before. The British didn't rape the place just because they enjoyed a nice curry.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:34 | 518705 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

What do you call the people saying "back up the truck" at 1240?

Oh, my bad... that was 20 bucks less than the highest price ever.

Gold has made its retracement.  It is now not going higher.  Have a nice day.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:49 | 518735 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Ill say it right now...

Buy at 1240

See you in 2 years fuck nuts.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:56 | 518752 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

You'll see me when I'm volunteering and the soup kitchen, and you're eating there!

Oh, you called me fuck nuts.  Maybe I should go cry to Tyler to have you banned now.

Wahhhhh!!!!!  Tyler!!!  Somebody disagrees with me!!!  He called me a name!!! BAN HIM!!!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:44 | 518893 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Johnny why do you believe that gold is worth $0/oz?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:54 | 518916 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I believe that gold is rightfully worth about 600-700 an ounce after the recovery happens.

We'll see the 900s though before we are recovered.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:44 | 518991 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

But surely some paperbug somewhere once said, perhaps even in jest, that gold was worth nothing. Therefore you can and should be beaten over the head with that after every post you make.

So what about that $0 gold prediction, when's that gonna happen?

You could answer that or go back and answer the serious question I asked you about your view that there was no Industrail Revolution in the US in the 19th century.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:30 | 518846 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oh, right, so given that no investment ever sets new highs, I'm surprised you didn't go bankrupt shorting the dot-com sector in the late 90'es.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:54 | 518918 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I'm surprised you didn't go bankrupt buying askjeeves.com for 300 bucks a share in 2000, given your gold purchases.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:57 | 519064 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I'm surprised that you expect people to believe that there was effectively no Industrial Revolution in America in the 19th Century.

You say all your predictions come true but you can't even get moldy old history right.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:03 | 519013 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

In order for him to go bankrupt, he would actually have to have some money on the table.

In the late 90's, Johnny was seven.  Johnny is a college student who talks like he grew up in short pants with Buffet.  In reality he's a shittin green bitch who's never had an actual dime of his own invested.

Don't worry though, he'll tell you what to do with your dime.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:12 | 519022 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

While i suppose the assumption can be made that a user with a handle of 'kernel' and a pic of a fat gay guy is older than the median posting age here - this has nothing to do with the smarts of a college student.

Id propose we know a lot more than you sir. Experience wise, you win. Hands down, no argument. Theory wise, we do. Also, we're gonna save your ass X years down the road when youre living off our taxes in your lovely senior home:)

Youre welcome kind sir.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 21:48 | 519111 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Been out of college for almost twenty years, not sure which side of median that puts me. Don't much care.  I have never disparaged the intelligence of a college student.  In fact, I have commented on Bravo's smarts more than once.  I would even be willing to give his arguments some credit, it's just that the more he speaks, the more I would love to choke the shit out of him.  He is an arrogant douchebag who got himself into the spot he's in because he gets off on being a fucking troll.  You sir do not.  I have read your posts since before I ever registered here.  You deserve more credit than to align yourself with him. 

Do you believe you win on the theory side because you have had twenty more years of it to study?  Funny how smart I thought I was twenty years ago. 

How is your saving my ass (we'll see) x years down the road any different than my doing it for the old effs today?  Don't waste thought thinking you're age group is unique.  There's always one generation older than you, and one younger. 

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 12:35 | 520115 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

My alliance with his posts extends only about as far as the perspective of gold price in the future, something we all no doubt simply speculate about.

I appreciate your words however; I do realize its always the younger generation that saves the older in terms of taxes, SS, etc, but as you say this has been happening for ever. Then again yours (or the one right before you) probably saved 'us' when it was times of war abroad or times of boom at home.

Until the next (gold) thread!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:54 | 519060 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You wanna man up about it, JB?  I'll tell you what, one year from today (September 12th, 2011) you can give me one American gold eagle for today's price from APMEX, including delivery, which comes to $1297.84.  You can cover this bet at any time you wish, but I will deliver payment (say via paypal, or a similar service), which will be credited to your account upon my receipt of the gold.

This bet is perfect for you and your fellow gold trolls, because it rewards or punishes based upon how right or wrong the given party is.  Know that I will only accept physical delivery of an American Gold Eagle.  This means that even if spot is $250, and you find that you have to pay a $7000 premium to get physical bullion, you still must pay it.  Of course, if spot is $250, and an eagle is available for $50 more than that, you will prfit handsomely.

What do you say?  Are you man or coward? 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:30 | 518694 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

ZEITGEIST, Escape, akak, Crockett,

Sr. VPs Bravo and Nadler were last seen earlier this afternoon still pounding away double-shots of Belvedere near JPM HQ. 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:34 | 518867 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

At least they understand vodka, if not gold.

Sat, 08/14/2010 - 01:55 | 521365 akak
akak's picture

Doing shots of Belvedere I can believe --- the gin blossoms on Nadler's smug mug is proof enough of that.

Now, if you told me that they were drinking Goldwasser, I would have called you a bald-faced liar!  Heaven forbid that yellow metal come into physical contact with either one!  It would result in an extremely large release of gamma rays, along with the mutual annihilation of both the gold and the anti-gold, er, "gentlemen".

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:31 | 518699 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Do you not remember me saying that gold would hit its 50% fib, at slightly less than 1220?

If you don't, I'm sure you can find the post multiple times.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 16:24 | 518559 ZEITGEIST
ZEITGEIST's picture

anyone seen that idiot J. Bravo????

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:11 | 518665 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Here he is!

The Brady Bunch (S5) - "Adios, Johnny Bravo" pt.2/3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaG6OrPakW8&NR=1

Marcia: Of all the phony, plastic names -- Johnny Bravo!

Jan: Yeah, they should have called him Benedict Arnold.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:45 | 518727 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

"Johnny Bravo is the only person that makes ad hominem personal attacks."

Wahhh wahhh... maybe I should go cry to Tyler now like akak because somebody called me a name.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:45 | 518897 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Johnnny stop telling people gold is worth $0/oz.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:55 | 518920 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I'm telling Tyler on you!  I'm a little baby that thinks gold will be 50000 an ounce!

Wahhh wahhh!!!!  Ad hominem!!!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:51 | 518998 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Why would gold-friendly Tyler ban you? You make an excellent foil for the goldbugs due to your insipid perseverance in the face of abject failure. And you help run his page views way up which increases his ad revenues. And I think I know where TD is investing some of those profits.

You, Johnny Bravo, are as good as gold for TD and ZH.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 16:41 | 520786 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I've been reading your comments for a long time, Johnny Bates.  I'll have to say that you are, in the long run, entertaining.   You have yet, to my knowledge, to post a link to anything backing up your so-called TA.  No charts, no nothing.  I may have missed it, but I can't recall having seen a link.  The one link to an inflation/deflation chart does not apply.

There is something pathological about a person who comes back week after week to espouse a position that is without merit, nor proof.  A person who seems to seek verbal abuse.  I'll not make suppositions about a childhood that generates that sort of personality since I am not qualified.  I'm just making an observation.  

The average IQ is 100.  I'd say your quotient falls somewhere between 75 and 85.  Not short-bus stupid, but clearly all your gears don't mesh.  With all respect I would like to suggest that you seek some professional counseling.  If you disagree with that, then the quotient supposition is closer to accurate than not.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 16:27 | 518563 ZEITGEIST
ZEITGEIST's picture

calling Jooooohhhhhnnny Bravo....come in Joooohhhny..are you at the Goldman meeting..please pick up..I am sure they have called you in to discuss the great recovery....

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 16:34 | 518580 Victorio
Victorio's picture

Don't encourage that ass hat.  His input is not welcome.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 16:51 | 518622 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

my wise elder Victorio, HI.
what do you think of H I G H end beautifully handcrafted fine fine gold (recycled) jewelry. the artist value goes up yearly and he is only 40 yrs young. when I visit my art gallery that sells his pieces, everyone is drawn to the glass case and just see in their face how much pleasure it gives to the viewer. that's what impresses me most. plus this art gallery family are the only friends I have, oh except all my ZH imaginary friends. kinda like you can see me but I can't see them, so
I M A G I N E

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:35 | 518709 Frank Owen
Frank Owen's picture

I'm not sure, but I think that is the most coherent comment you've ever posted here.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:45 | 518724 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

oh thanks FRANK OWEN, especially coming from you and THE MORAL GROUND your probably standing on R I G H T now.

i am trying real hard in my second life i got from ZH. coherent, haven't heard that word a lot my w H O L E life and i'm old.

well go on, what about buying more gold jewry?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:57 | 518754 Frank Owen
Frank Owen's picture

"i am trying real hard in my second life i got from ZH."
That explains everything - you're at the wrong site!
http://secondlife.com/ - This is what you are looking for.
I'm not a fan of gold jewry, just coins, but whatever turns you on.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:14 | 518796 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

hey already got the scoop on that secondlife. now that is real fantasy on both ends.

I'm not a fan of gold jewry - so your saying your not G A Y ?

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:24 | 518829 Frank Owen
Frank Owen's picture

Well, I've experimented a bit. It all started when I was about 15 and went up into the mountains to pick some weed. To make a long story short - I fucked a unicorn that night. Since then I have never gone back to "conventional" sex. I have transcended (look it up) gay or straight sex and now participate in something much more intense...
That's me on the right:
http://www.astriasuparak.com/images/elusivequality/VPP-300dpi.jpg

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:34 | 518859 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

well, frank i can't tell from the picture cause it seems to be cut short at your waist.

do you have a unicorn H O R N , you know where?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:45 | 518894 Frank Owen
Frank Owen's picture

Of course I have the H O R N ! Bottom right drawer. Who wouldn't want to take a trophy after a night like that.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:31 | 518853 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

rapunzel, I like your posts, and that's all that matters!

Where is that art gallery?  Any art gallery selling gold like that would be wroth a visit.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:35 | 518866 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

we don't talk about  F I G H T    C L U B  remember†

you must be G A Y ¿

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:01 | 518927 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

.

.

Not gay!  Yuck!  Eeew.

I do have a lovely Peruvian wife though.  This year is our 25th Anniversary!  We're going to go to Tahiti...

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:10 | 518947 Frank Owen
Frank Owen's picture

25th - Congrats! Do something special for her.. she'll love you in this:
http://cgi.ebay.com/Brand-New-Underwear-Men-Very-Sexy-Pink-384-/17052522...

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 21:49 | 519112 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

D A M N, frank is that y o u r    H O R N

pretty in pink.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 17:54 | 520913 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I kinda think the silver mannequin is cute....

Sat, 08/14/2010 - 07:09 | 521090 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

f

H O M O  's   

4 sure and i could care less about your fucking married misery†

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 21:05 | 519070 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I do have a lovely Peruvian wife though.  This year is our 25th Anniversary!  We're going to go to Tahiti...

Sounds like you've gone a bit Thor Heyerdahl, DCRB.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:03 | 518768 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Yay!  It's dumpster, or velobabe, or Mscreant, or whoever this person is posting as today!

Don't forget to tell me to get some zit cream!  LOL!

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:19 | 518806 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Zitco boy.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:22 | 518815 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

RAPCO

republic asphalt paving company, you get it†

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:26 | 518832 Freebird
Freebird's picture

No, not at all. Please elaborate.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:21 | 518808 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

sorry johnny, it is repunzel.

i never said zit cream to you, cause i just recently found out JB's identity. your funny, reminds me of myself actually. never watched brady bunch, they are stupid, white rich people with a white maid who buys into that BS. damn growing up, we all had maids. but they were dark skin for sure. my best girlfriend had a live in maid and a butler. her dad was never home and bless her heart mother, took her life. so she needed some nurturing. Matty was down.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:07 | 518943 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

If we're so similar, you must be really awesome then! :)

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 21:52 | 519114 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

stop complimenting yourself all the time.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 00:38 | 519325 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

d

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:05 | 518936 Victorio
Victorio's picture

I'm speechless...

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:18 | 518957 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

You were speechless before too, at least if relevance counts.

Fri, 08/13/2010 - 20:14 | 519115 rapunzel
rapunzel's picture

go away gramps

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:10 | 518660 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

I welcome everyone's input except propagandists.

I am buyer of Gold for past 4 years but name calling will not help.

Sorry, had to junk ZETIGIST's posts.

 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 17:51 | 518738 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Gold to 54000 is propaganda.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:11 | 518789 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

What about gold to 5000?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:21 | 518809 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

More reasonable, but still not based on reality... 

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:29 | 518845 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

If you remove the price manipulation and get into currency crisis territory, quite plausible.

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 18:57 | 518921 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Those are some big ifs!

Also, if it's manipulated, why does it go up?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:18 | 518960 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

1. If it didn't go up at all, then the manipulation would be much more obvious.

2. It is probably very expensive to keep the price down against market forces.  Less expensive if you let it move up somewhat.

By your question, does it mean that you doubt that there is manipulation?

Thu, 08/12/2010 - 19:56 | 519003 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I welcome everyone's input except propagandists.

I am buyer of Gold for past 4 years but name calling will not help.

Sorry, had to junk ZETIGIST's posts.

 

fiddler_on_the_roof,

Zeitgiest is, I believe, one of the good guys. He was calling for Johnny Bravo (the anti-gold schill) only in jest.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!