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Tokyo Exodus Beginning?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If the following letter posted by the BBC Blog is indicative of prevailing popular mood in the Japanese capital now that the government has lost credibility (as Zero Hedge predicted on Saturday), Tokyo may soon be a ghost town.

Mikan in Tokyo writes: "There is a growing sense that the Japanese
government is not telling us the true story. On one end, there is the
Japanese media that plays down the nuclear drama and focuses on human
drama, and at the other, the foreign media is up-playing the nuclear
disaster. In my company I heard at least half the essential staff is
being sent to Hong Kong, Singapore or even Sydney. I am preparing to
leave Tokyo and/or Japan. So are many of my friends. There is a sense of
deserting Tokyo as soon as possible."

h/t It's a Bargin my Friend

 

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Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:02 | 1051415 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture

black swan event

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:10 | 1051454 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

The Japanese can fly to Hawaii and do not even need a Visa.  Look for Hawaii's economy to improve.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:21 | 1051778 Pez
Pez's picture

3 nukes in meltdown mode? You mean Black Godzilla event!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:52 | 1052243 AnonymousAnarchist
AnonymousAnarchist's picture

Mike's family is leaving Tokyo too.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:33 | 1051567 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

About six months ago when I was there I wasn't the only one helping their economy, but I can't fathom how those real estate prices can be propped up too much longer.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:58 | 1051693 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I've heard most of them are going to pearl harbor.

Seriously, i would have been long gone by now. I'd chip in my vacation time, get the kids from school and GET THE FUCK OUT!!!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:16 | 1052090 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

GET REAL AND STOP MASSAGING THE MASS MEDIA SHIT!

http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-reactors-pose-no-risk-2011-3#ixzz1GZnQnOSj

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 18:58 | 1052475 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture


If the core melts and the pressure vessel bursts (and eventually melts), it will catch the molten fuel and everything else. It is built in such a way that the nuclear fuel will be spread out, so it can cool down.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-reactors-pose-no-risk-2011-3#ixzz1GcLQGDx8 So, in theory, pressure vessels are to reactors as blow out preventers (BOPs) are to undersea oil wells?

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:07 | 1051728 Testicular Cancer
Testicular Cancer's picture

Had not thought of that. Good point.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:25 | 1052575 Alert
Alert's picture

If we have a nuclear meltdown, all the radioactive particles will be in the atmosphere.  These will fly to Hawaii in 6 to 10 days!  I don't think Hawaii is a safe place to be.  

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:14 | 1051475 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

World fails apart and fed money still plows into momo stocks. CMG apple baby!

ShitNBC cheerleading a market comeback right now. Better than fucking expected.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:05 | 1051716 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Same thing, get the fuck out while there is still time. I even sold my silver call warants today. Most of my assets can be put in my car, i even took 5 year visa's for the family just in case the eu get hammered. Even a 5% chance is big enough for me.
If somthing where to go wrong i'd go to argentinia which has a big agreculture base.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:12 | 1051744 Reptil
Reptil's picture

And Monstanto. Which is one of the next black swans to make their appearance. :-S

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:45 | 1052204 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

What country do you live in right now?  I presume you are not American.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 20:28 | 1052797 farragut
farragut's picture

Sudden Debt is from the land of fine chocolates and even finer Trappist ales....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:06 | 1051720 Testicular Cancer
Testicular Cancer's picture

Godzilla event

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:01 | 1051418 prophet
prophet's picture

Toxi City

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:01 | 1051419 Unlawful Justice
Unlawful Justice's picture

California here we come.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:10 | 1051456 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Bring us your businesses, factories, and huddled Yen.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:05 | 1051713 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

California is so anti-business and has such high taxation only a fool would move their company there (unless absolutely necessary). Bug out to Nevada, they welcome businesses of all types and office space is going cheap. AZ is another option.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:26 | 1051798 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

You forget to mention AZ is a racist state.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:03 | 1052035 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

They just don't like people abusing the system that do not pay into it .... Hospitals ect ....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:27 | 1052129 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Actually far less than most of america. (it's just been propagandized well that we are)

Southern fools and national republican/tea party people do not make up the spirit of the population of Arizona.  When I hear a racist word, it's ALWAYS somebody from OUT OF TOWN or from a religious cult.  Guess from where? Example, Atlanta.

People don't realize that of the MLK decision, that we were the ONLY state to have the PEOPLE pass it.  (probably a republican national thing as well)

We put it to the people, and 50 percent voted it down.  1-3 years later, we passed it.  None of the other states can say that.  Otherwise, do you really think that ~1989 that ANY of the southern states would have passed it?

We also have a major cult with a huge population base, that is the predominant racists that are born here.  But that cult is in every state, just more so here than most.

Take those aspects away, and Arizona is one of the most friendliest states around.  All one needs to do is ask an African American from the south, who might reside in Arizona now to tell you the difference.

It's really just idiots, thinking like idiots, being controlled from outside.  Once the banksters go down, that link will be severed, for the most part (since they are one and the same or at least compadres with like goals).

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:46 | 1052209 Unlawful Justice
Unlawful Justice's picture

Arizona is the Sunshine state of Corruption.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:20 | 1053301 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture
TO: Unlawful Justice
on Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:46
#1052209

"Arizona is the Sunshine state of Corruption."

i lived in az for awhile and am here to tell you that you all sideways on this one, dude.....az is just america writ large......you can do anything you can get away with......and if god didn't want us to cheat he wouldn't have made it so easy.........

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:20 | 1053302 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture

dup

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 20:02 | 1052708 Blano
Blano's picture

Only if you're an illegal piece of shit that shouldn't be there to begin with.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:10 | 1053246 Talleyrand
Talleyrand's picture

How can a state be "racist"?  Granted, "racism" is often fostered by the State to enable and obscure its criminal criminal actions.  But, your statement is offensively stupid.

I suspect, Sir, that you are a collectivist - and not worth junking.

Pull head out.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:11 | 1053249 Talleyrand
Talleyrand's picture

.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 23:00 | 1053488 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

@ Ahmeexnal

I don't think Az's are racists, they hate everyone equally. What's wrong with that?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 23:07 | 1053535 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

. dbl

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:44 | 1051624 aurum
aurum's picture

we being the nuclear fall out.....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:02 | 1051420 drink or die
drink or die's picture

The true story won't come out until the damage is done (as usual), so leaving might be a good idea.

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:11 | 1051453 FreeMoney Bernie
FreeMoney Bernie's picture

hedge funds are cornering the market on potassium iodide does that tell you anything

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:16 | 1051485 silvertrain
silvertrain's picture

 There will also be a huge amount of antibotics and other meds,{which I know zero about} that will be required of the Hospitals..

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:19 | 1051500 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Bought some on Ebay Saturday.  Roughly 1800 units left to sell from this vendor. Checked last night and oops,,,Sold Out.  Big run on geiger counters now too.  Oh, and my local CVS has none and claims it is prescription only. Same with SSKI. WTF?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:40 | 1051599 Misstrial
Misstrial's picture

Still avail on amazon.com. Be certain to check the price per bottle though.

One seller is asking $59.55 per bottle.

Here's one that I ordered this a.m.:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0014H1KNY/ref=pd_lpo_k2_dp_sr_2?pf_rd_...

~Misstrial

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:41 | 1051825 tamboo
Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:12 | 1051750 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Here in belgium they announced on the radio you can get a free package per person at the pharmacy. Why would they do that? It took 3 month for them to get organized with the big flu pandemic and now only 2 days!
I'm getting some tomorrow and i'll go to the doctor to hear if the kids can take them just in case.
After chernobyl, it came out that all our food was contaminated. They didn't warn the public because there was nothing they could do. Years after that, cancer rates spiked!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:12 | 1051469 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

that pretty well summerises my feelings about America and the stock market as a whole (or should that be hole?).

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:38 | 1051587 Cyrano de Bivouac
Cyrano de Bivouac's picture

It should be a hole.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:32 | 1051861 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

I'm not sure im understanding the concern. The exodus from Tokyo is for fear of...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:41 | 1053400 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Heh... you don't get out much... huh?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:04 | 1051422 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture


The Japanese nuclear engineer Masashi Goto said a few hours ago that the next 24 hours will be crucial if one manages to avoid a complete meltdown of this reactor. If that happens, along with a blast, plutonium can be spread over an area twice the size of a conventional nuclear explosion. This is because, according to Goto that these reactors using mixed oxide fuel.

The Japanese expert believes that an explosion at one of these plants will be worse for the population, than if the same happened in a facility that uses ordinary nuclear fuel.

www.vg.no 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:25 | 1051524 cdude
cdude's picture

If this thing goes "China Syndrome" it'll be the mother of all dirty bombs. MUCH worse than any "clean" A-bomb detonation! Hundreds of pounds of plutonium oxides would be released into the atmosphere. That shit causes cancer upon inhalation of a few micrograms. 

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:28 | 1051541 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Live geiger counter tokyo they are starting to climb fast.

Tokai over 1,000 ......

translate.google.com

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:10 | 1051739 seek
seek's picture

Awesome find! A bunch of stations are offline, but the highest reporting stations is 28X normal background.

Click on the cities and you get a nice graph of the past 24 hours, Isobe Hitatioota City is the highest at the moment, and the spike in the past couple hours is very evident: http://www.houshasen-pref-ibaraki.jp/present/21HP30grf.html

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:09 | 1052514 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Whoa, there, plutonium? I'm not a nuclear physicist but I thought nuclear fission was when uranium split into lighter elements. How would a uranium reactor produce plutonium???

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:00 | 1052976 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

Uranium-235 is the isotope that fissions.  Reactor-grade enriched uranium is still mostly uranium-238, which absorbs the reactor's neutrons instead of fissioning.  The resulting uranium-239 then decays into plutonium, so all nuclear reactors contain some plutonium.  However, I think this reactor is partially fueled with plutonium, because this way it can run on cheap unenriched uranium while simultaneously generating some of its own plutonium fuel.  Plutonium fallout is more dangerous than uranium fallout because uranium has a very long half life, so the extra plutonium in this reactor has people worried.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:45 | 1053425 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Nope... MOX fuel is a mixture of uranium and plutonium reprocessed from spent uranium, and is sometimes involved in the disposal of weapons-grade....

Russians sell it to Japan to burn as fuel. It's from dismantled nukes and made into fuel. USA wanted to bury it and Russians considered it an asset.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:06 | 1051428 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Front page of New York Times right now, and minutes old:


Exposed Fuel Rods Overheat, Raising Risk of Breach

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:13 | 1051460 No Bid
No Bid's picture

Don't mean to respond to all of your posts, buttt...

Chances of a breach beyond the third containment facility, the one whose sole purpose is to be the last line of defense in the case of a meltdown, is still very remote.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:15 | 1051480 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I hope you're right and wish we could get some basic clarity from reporters, because I just read the Times article, and here is what's reported:


The more time that passes with fuel rods uncovered by water and the pressure inside the containment vessel unvented, the greater the risk that the containment vessel will crack or explode, creating a potentially catastrophic release of radioactive material into the atmosphere — an accident that would be by far the worst to confront the nuclear power industry since the explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant 25 years ago.

In reactor No. 2, which is now the most damaged of the three at the Daiichi plant, at least parts of the fuel rods have been exposed for several hours, which also suggests that some of the fuel has begun to melt. If more of the fuel melts before water can be injected in the vessel, the fuel pellets could burn through the bottom of the containment vessel and radioactive material could pour out that way — often referred to as a full meltdown.

“They’re basically in a full-scale panic” among Japanese power industry managers, said a senior nuclear industry executive late Monday night. The executive is not involved in managing the response to the reactors’ difficulties but has many contacts in Japan. “They’re in total disarray, they don’t know what to do.”

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:26 | 1051531 No Bid
No Bid's picture

Stage 1 - Cooling systems offline

Stage 2 - Water dissipates, no cooling whatsoever [we are here]

Stage 3 - Rods melt.  Melted radioactive liquid sits on primary rod casing.

              Primary casing melts at 2200C.  Rods melt at 3000C.

Stage 4 - Primary casing breach.  Fuel falls to secondary entrapment that disperses fuel

              to allow for quicker natural cooling.

Stage 5 - Secondary casing breached.  

Stage 6 - The third casing is much larger than the first two.  Therefore, cooling occurs

              more quickly.  Fuel sits here until this large bubble can be transported

              and processed.

 

It's important to note that once there is even a possibility of losing cooling systems control rods are introduced and the chain reaction is stopped.  That means nuclear reaction is no longer occurring, meaning the rods will not heat indefinitely.  They will continue to heat up, but only for so long.  The third encasement has one function: to prevent a core meltdown from being introduced into the atmosphere.  By the time the fuel reaches the third encasement, it will have cooled substantially.  There is little chance for core fuel to be introduced into the environment.  Keep in mind I'm referring to core fuel, as in Chernobyl style, rather than isotopes which have already been released via steam explosions.  

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:40 | 1051602 Lionhead
Lionhead's picture

Well now, there you have it in a tidy, neat little package; what could possibly go wrong? Do you really believe that nothing else might happen that would disrupt your planning either human, organic or supernatural?  Such hubris you have sir...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:20 | 1051774 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Perhaps it would be better for everyone to run screaming through the streets ala Godzilla vs. The Smog Monster?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:37 | 1051888 TeamAmerica
TeamAmerica's picture

He's talking physics.   I don't see where you get "hubris" out of dispassionate observation of facts.

The containment is designed to contain a meltdown.  That's it..."designed to", but nobody wants to see it put to the test.  No hubris there.

As for supernatural events, why wait for a geologic disaster to discuss that possibility?   If we want to believe that reactor walls might spontaneously disappear due to supernatural forces...maybe in Narnia, but not here on Earth.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:47 | 1051633 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The rods have already melted.  We don't actually know the real extent of the damage from the explosion, it could have breached any and all levels of casing.  This seems fairly likely in the case of reactor three, which blew sky high, and given the rapidly rising rate of radioactivity in Tokyo.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:30 | 1051554 kreso
kreso's picture

Isn't it the first and foremost job of newspaper to sell itself... Are you working for NYT? Did NYT interview every single industry manager, or just one? (As I guess from your article.)

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:36 | 1051586 No Bid
No Bid's picture

From your link:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/12/world/asia/the-explosion-at-the-japanese-reactor.html?ref=asia

 

Decent explanation of what happens, except for the shock and awe suggestions on slide 6.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:07 | 1052059 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

No bid:

 

You're just wrong. Once their exposed, that means no water, not there and not in the containment vessels. Thats probably why they are attempting sea water and boron.

They are highly likely all in melt down. It won't be like Chernobyl because its a way different design, but they have already lost those reactors. Probably all of them if the containment vessels are not working properly.

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:10 | 1052516 No Bid
No Bid's picture

I'm not here to argue.  A couple points.  

Exposed = No Water.  Correct.

Exposed does not = Outside containment structures.

They pumped sea water in to replace the water that had evaporated because, as you can imagine, there is a lack of distilled water which is typically used.  Act of desperation. 

What is highly likely in a meltdown?  The only likely scenario is that the uranium melts the primary container.  After that it's anyone's guess.  If the secondary and final containment work as designed then what's left is contained radioactive waste that will be shipped to a processing plant.  

There would need to be an outlying factor for the core to be exposed to the environment.  There is nothing yet to indicate that's likely.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:31 | 1051551 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

As I understand the worst case would be for the fission reaction to restart. I think that's diff between Cherobyl and TMI.

Some disasters can't be hidden. If fission restarts it will rapidly become an unmitigated disaster. A man made volcano.

How close we are? who knows? The U.S. Navy is out much farther than 100 miles. I think that indicates the risk level.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:38 | 1051582 kreso
kreso's picture

Even with contaminated rainfall on the decks of warships, US Navy should be more than well equipped to decontaminate decks and personel. The increased radius between Japan and the fleet might indicate something else.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:46 | 1051931 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

The best way to decom is to avoid being contaminated.  The way you decom a vessel is to lock it airtight (circle W) and commence pumping sea water through sprinklers that are installed on all weather decks. As you put the bow into the wind and run like hell.  Running dirty (read: contaminated) across the skin of the ship won't help much, so you have to get out of the plume.  That's what the 100 miles is for, early warning and manuever.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:15 | 1052087 kreso
kreso's picture

Look here... 7th fleet is supposed to help saving lives.

The military noted, however, that the level of contamination was very low, and the ship movement was merely a precaution. "For perspective, the maximum potential radiation dose received by any ship's force personnel aboard the ship when it passed through the area was less than the radiation exposure received from about one month of exposure to natural background radiation from sources such as rocks, soil, and the sun," the Navy said.

http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2011/03/japan-megaqu...

If a single life was lost 'cause 7th fleet chickened out, then... (No-one is asking fleet to navigate through floating atomic mines.) That's why I said, that increasing the distance is not for the levels of radiation.

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:30 | 1051553 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

Why? And I mean why is it remote, not why did you pop up out of nowhere. What d you mean third containment facility? I thought there were three reactors, two usng conventional fuels, one using a MOX, a mixture of Plutunium Oxide and U-238. (That being the second one.) Your staemtent make it sound like there are three containment facilities in each reactor or some kind of redundancy, that does not exist, i think. I'm no expert, but are you? No, people shouldn't panic, but maybe they should. maybe this is a time to panic. I don't see the silver linging of nuclear plants blowing up and how and why there are so many posts and blogs on the internet that act like, meh, no big deal, is beyond me. It could, in fact, be a big deal.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:30 | 1051555 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

Why? And I mean why is it remote, not why did you pop up out of nowhere. What d you mean third containment facility? I thought there were three reactors, two usng conventional fuels, one using a MOX, a mixture of Plutunium Oxide and U-238. (That being the second one.) Your staemtent make it sound like there are three containment facilities in each reactor or some kind of redundancy, that does not exist, i think. I'm no expert, but are you? No, people shouldn't panic, but maybe they should. maybe this is a time to panic. I don't see the silver linging of nuclear plants blowing up and how and why there are so many posts and blogs on the internet that act like, meh, no big deal, is beyond me. It could, in fact, be a big deal.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:50 | 1053445 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

3rd containment? WTF are you smoking. CD we have a new source.

Please explain the imaginary 3rd containment facility?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:04 | 1051431 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture

watch the smart money

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:15 | 1051487 shushup
shushup's picture

The smart money is "Ben Bucks". Not even an earthquake, tsunami or 3 nuclear reactor meltdown can cause a descent sell off in the US markets. NOt even when everyone is expecting a correction anyway. Nothing makes sense anymore.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:08 | 1051439 Yikes
Yikes's picture

Lines at airports, train stations, and highways heading south? The deuce you say. 

 

Nothing to see hear folks. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:07 | 1051440 Yield2Greatness
Yield2Greatness's picture

Nuts!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:07 | 1051442 Confused
Confused's picture

Unbelievable. 

 

For some reason Akira comes to mind. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:15 | 1051479 CPL
CPL's picture

Tetsuo!!!!!

 

<turn into tenticle rape monster and implode>

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:31 | 1051558 Confused
Confused's picture

Thanks, for a minute there I was worried.

 

This was a huge favorite of mine growing up.  

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:12 | 1052075 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

As long as it's not "liquid monster..."

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:09 | 1051445 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

PANIC!!!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:09 | 1051446 lo574
lo574's picture

Bring on Godzilla

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:09 | 1051447 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Some info about the prevailing winds during spring and summer in Japan would be greatly appreciated.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:14 | 1051483 CPL
CPL's picture

Don't go to British Columbia, Washington state, Oregon, Northern California.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:20 | 1051508 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I was thinking from a local Japanese perspective - the pacific is a BIG ocean.

When do they get the monsoon for example ? and do they get it that far north ?

 

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:03 | 1051711 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Japanese 'monsoon season' (they are labled Typhoons in SE Asia) is about the same as the US... begins about June... gets serious about mid August into early November.

...but, Hurricanes in the US have been recorded in all months of the year...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:30 | 1051556 Wynn
Wynn's picture

Doesn't that stuff disperse over great distances? What are the dangers, thousands of miles away?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:40 | 1051603 DaveyJones
Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:19 | 1051499 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

well..you have the volcano in southern Japan spewing ash 2 miles into the atmosphere..Japan is within the jet stream ..situation..FUBAR...buy KI while you can. -Your thyroid. we have 2 weeks on east coast to prepare. dont let the cling-ons that be convince you a little radiation is ok...

its not...

Got Geiger Counters?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:24 | 1051791 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

"we have 2 weeks on east coast to prepare."

Well thank you, Ziggy 59 for adding yet one more ASSHAT comment onto the top of a HUGE pile of ASSHAT comments. 

We don't know shit right now.  Your running around squawking like a fucking bitch while you have no info. whatsoever only adds to the stupidity.

By all means, buy some iodide.  Turn on your Geiger counter.  Put your head between your legs. (this requires removing it from your ass so you can see what happens) Speculate on possibilities.  Ask questions.  Wait and see.  Take everything you read/hear with a grain of salt.  I will admit that anything is POSSIBLE.

But in the meantime, please for God's sake, SHUT THE FUCK UP ALL OF YOU MORONS WHO CLAIM TO KNOW SHIT YOU DON'T.

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:27 | 1051806 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

My apologies everyone for the outburst.  Three days of trying to sort through bullshit hysteria to find actual information and perhaps some intelligent speculation has finally worn me thin.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:11 | 1052076 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Its alright. Ziggy is wrong, even in the worst case scenario. Even if you're in CA. you don't need that stuff at this point. Furthermore, that stuff is only meant as a last resort, so don't take it until there is no alternative.

 

We're okay over here. Its the poor souls in that area of Japan that should bug out.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:59 | 1053489 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

So you would feel perfectly safe in Tokyo now? 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:49 | 1051949 TeamAmerica
TeamAmerica's picture

Don't get carried away with taking potassium iodide.   I agree with being prepared, but people should be warned not to take the stuff just because you're scared.   Wait until there is actual, imminent exposure (not weeks away) and don't exceed recommended dosage.   This stuff is not a magic shield and for most adults it won't make any difference if you take it or not.

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:59 | 1051995 tmosley
tmosley's picture

This.

Please don't take my comments suggesting that you have KI available to mean that you should be taking it now.  Long term exposure WILL cause thyroid problems.  As such, it should only be taken immediately before you KNOW fallout is about to hit (or as it is hitting, or immediately after it hits--the sooner the better, but taking it for weeks on end is problematic).

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:43 | 1051616 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Prevailing winds?  Here's a simple and fairly accurate method you can do in the privacy of your own home.

Open Google Earth, zero in on all the airports in the affected area, and read the numbers on the runways.  Sendai is 09/27;  Fukushima, while only seventy miles south, is 01/19 (but I've landed there many times in strong crosswinds).  Narita and Haneda are 16/34.  From about May to October most takeoffs are to the southernmost facing direction.  Winter months are generally takeoffs to the north.

Of course these are surface winds.  At elevation it all shifts.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:09 | 1051449 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I was wondering what Jim Rogers is doing.

Just think about the devistation of Real Estate Values anywhere near the Reactors.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:11 | 1051450 No Bid
No Bid's picture

Strong bid for real estate in Tokyo.  

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:09 | 1051452 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Wear a jacket of lead coated toys from china.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:19 | 1052108 SME MOFO
SME MOFO's picture

+ 137

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:55 | 1051455 TomGa
TomGa's picture

The trick is to decide it's time to leave before everyone else decides it's time to leave.

Music for the exodus:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7ToNJHgp-w

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:12 | 1051457 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

who knows what to believe anymore.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:12 | 1051462 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

3rd largest national economy in the world loses 7% and the U.S. stock markets after gaining on the news of a 9.0, tsunami and nuclear meltdowns rally 1% and then lose 1%. Something is very off here..the Japansese citizens may be fleeing radiocative plumes in the coming months and the markets here are taking all this entirely too well in stride. 

  Proof of a fixed stock market but it will catch up to them.When lives are on the line lying to the people is unforgivable. I was always taught better safe than sorry. Get these people out of there and protected because the effects of radiation can warp an entire generation. Meanwhile Wall Street believes it can ignore this by stepping up and buying. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:23 | 1051511 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

"The ponzi must continue...by any means necessary."

The Ben Bernank.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:28 | 1051537 Convolved Man
Convolved Man's picture

Place your bets till the ivory ball drops.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:42 | 1051593 Cdad
Cdad's picture

3rd largest economy going to zero for the next 12 months....priced in, John!  The market knows all....until it is revealed that it knows absolutely nothing. 

In the meantime, and for your viewing enjoyment, the Ministry of Truth [CNBC] is analyzing the concept of "just in time inventory."  Way to be irrelevant!

Additional:

This just in...the Ministry of Truth asks, of course, "Is this a buying opportunity?"  LOL!  Yep, reactors going critical driving residents out of Tokyo...buying opportunity! 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:29 | 1051835 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

Just put on a levered long Japanese Nuclear stock position....deep value play. You'll see!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:13 | 1051465 truont
truont's picture

Mikan in Tokyo writes: "There is a growing sense that the Japanese government is not telling us the true story... I am preparing to leave Tokyo and/or Japan. So are many of my friends. There is a sense of deserting Tokyo as soon as possible."

Witness natrual selection in action.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:07 | 1051617 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

A friend was a refugee from Chernobyl.  The government had long ago lost all trust, so everyone tried to learn nuclear physics in a day.  They didn't have the internet, so they had to rely on friends of friends and a few old textbooks.  End result was a significant depopulation of Kiev plus parts of Ukraine and Russia.  Most people who didn't leave were stuck for some reason.  And then there were the few who believed the propaganda and stayed behind.  There were bumper crops of giant mushrooms after the accident, and some people gobbled them up thinking that something so big and delicious couldn't possibly be unhealthy.  Natural selection indeed.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:12 | 1051466 CheapKUNGFU
CheapKUNGFU's picture

all your lead filled toys are belong to us, make your time...

heh

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:12 | 1051468 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Exodus...movement of Ja people- Bob Marley

 

our turn is coming...ill winds..web bot.

yikes!!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:14 | 1051472 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

All who can leave should.  Simple cost/benefit analysis..., but this is like the last days of Saigon.  Not much transport.  Time to be honest and do some triage.

This is not the big one.  Tokyo proper is long overdue.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:14 | 1051474 shushup
shushup's picture

Better safe than sorry. I'd have left over the weekend. You can't trust any government to tell you the truth. Then again, when the president begs you to leave (because your dumb ass mayor won't) because a hurricane the size of the gulf of mexico is headed your way but you stay home anyway and blame to government when you get stuck there.......better safe than sorry - LEAVE.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:17 | 1051489 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

righto..my family owns a small cottage in PA but in the past few years I have grown more appreciative than ever over this seemingly "cheap" piece of property. 2 hours from Manhattan and this spring and summer I am buying my first gun and heading to Costco. for goods so I can stockpile it. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:07 | 1051840 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Buy them now John, even if you have to rent a storage for it until you can move it.  Long term storable foods are getting ever increasingly expensive, and hard to find. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:33 | 1052597 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Hey Colonel, take a look at this

http://aviationhumor.net/she-lives-in-a-boeing-727/

2 grand for the 727! may do that myself...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 19:21 | 1052544 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

[...and this spring and summer I am buying my first gun and heading to Costco. for goods so I can stockpile it.]---John McCloy

I agree with the Colonel, John. If you have the money now, and you've made your decisions, do not put off your purchases.

The Colonel is correct. Availability of long-term food storage is drying up.

Here's something most folks don't take into account. Once you get through your initial list of things to get(e.g. firearm and food storage) the next "list" magically appears. Then another list. Growing exponentially.

Here's what I mean. Assuming you already know your way around firearms. You buy your first gun. Let's say a shotgun. And, you include a few boxes of 00-buck shells with your gun purchase. Done right? No. Next, you need a cleaning kit. And, you want a gun case to store it.  Maybe a child-proof trigger lock. Shortly thereafter, you realize a shotgun is good for bird hunting and deer as well has home defense. Now you add to your list #8 bird shot shells and slug shells. You go to the range and test fire your gun. Works fine, but now you're low on ammo.

Your long term food storage. Got can openers? A few of them? Got a safe place to keep food airtight and off the floor. Got rodent control? Got water to mix into your dehydrated food? Need a water filter? Got a heat source for cooking?

See what I mean? Don't hesitate. You'll have plenty of other things you'll be buying this "spring and summer"---if available.

Hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 21:25 | 1053018 Yits and the Yimrum
Yits and the Yimrum's picture

good move; I like Eden Foods in Michigan as a supplier of long term grains/beans.

Good Value and Fed Ex gets the job done right getting the goods delivered.

 

Another must is a Berkey type water Filter, good boots and much warm clothing, but light.  i like Patagonia, but any climbing type clothing is great and it looks good.

 

a few pair of high quality hiking boots are a  must for the smash

there is so much to consider, but a supply of (healthy) storage foods is a must

signing up with a local truck farmer and/or farmer market is a great idea

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:15 | 1051482 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture


Japan is teetering on the brink of nuclear catastrophe amid fears a radioactive cloud could envelop Tokyo's 13 million residents. The Foreign Office warned Brits to avoid the capital as it was feared a second nuclear reactor was heading for meltdown after Friday's devastating earthquake and tsunami. 

 www.thesun.co.uk

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:17 | 1051486 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Here is what the article says for those being blocked (New York Times):

Emergency Cooling Effort at Reactor Is Failing, Deepening Japanese Crisis

The more time that passes with fuel rods uncovered by water and the pressure inside the containment vessel unvented, the greater the risk that the containment vessel will crack or explode, creating a potentially catastrophic release of radioactive material into the atmosphere — an accident that would be by far the worst to confront the nuclear power industry since the explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant 25 years ago.

In reactor No. 2, which is now the most damaged of the three at the Daiichi plant, at least parts of the fuel rods have been exposed for several hours, which also suggests that some of the fuel has begun to melt. If more of the fuel melts before water can be injected in the vessel, the fuel pellets could burn through the bottom of the containment vessel and radioactive material could pour out that way — often referred to as a full meltdown.

“They’re basically in a full-scale panic” among Japanese power industry managers, said a senior nuclear industry executive late Monday night. The executive is not involved in managing the response to the reactors’ difficulties but has many contacts in Japan. “They’re in total disarray, they don’t know what to do.”

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:16 | 1051488 ml8ml8
ml8ml8's picture

If I lived in Tokyo, I'd be taking a vacation to the mainland somewhere for several weeks because of the potential for aftershocks, not the nuclear threat.  Jet Propulsion Lab expert says to expect at least one aftershock greater than 8.0 and 10 greater than 7.0  Yikes.  http://bit.ly/hstLci 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:16 | 1051490 romanko
romanko's picture

this also just in:

Jim in New York twitters he's leaving the city because he can't stand the traffic and rude people.

 

My heart goes out to the tragedy playing out in new york. Was planning on visiting someday, but it's obvious that the entire city is a write-off. Does anyone have a google sattelite map of the mass exodus to long island?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:47 | 1051629 Clampit
Clampit's picture

I wondered how long I'd have to read comments before anyone touched on this topic...

Most rank and file Japanese, the 8:45-6:(whenever) drones that ushers pack into the Tozai line everyday, have wanted to leave for years. Personally I attribute this to an absence of material connection with the fruits of their labor, but nonetheless I can guarantee numerous similar first hand interviews quake or no.

Oh, and my condolences to the people of Manhattan.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:17 | 1051491 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

ive been talking to my friend in minami kashiwa, chiba daily. she has power and gas but the grocery stores are empty of food and water. everyone is in shock. 

 

nakedempire

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:54 | 1051664 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Yesterday I heard that many people, who were NOT displaced from their homes, were running out of food and water.  That was only two days out from the quake and tsunami.

For a nation that is supposedly the best prepared for earthquakes...well, it doesn't make sense.  Unless they have become somehow immune to the shaking.

Kobe wasn't THAT long ago.

I know that me and mine would be good for two weeks plus and that's BEFORE having to dig in to the long term prep stashes.

Anyone in the US who lives in an earthquake active area need to use this as an object lesson.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:05 | 1051718 romanko
romanko's picture

Preps won't help much when a once-in-a-1000 year earthquake hits followed by a 9 metre tsuami.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:20 | 1051773 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Like I said, these were people NOT displaced.  Homes intact [not broken down or washed away] but they were out of food and water within two days.

It wasn't clear that they were low-income.  They looked like working or middle class people.

I was (and still am) confused by how ill-prepared they are.

I live in an earth quake active area, but have only experienced two bouts of minor shaking.  First epsidose made me a believer; the second reinforced it.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:52 | 1051965 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

Side product of our just-in-time delivery model.  Chicago supermarkets only stock 2 days worth of inventory.  Hospital pharmacies are lightly stocked as well at any given time.   Our societies are not prepared for mega-disasters like this. 

Make fun of the tin-foil hat wearing guys all you want, see if they let you in their bunker when you're shivering in the cold with (half) your family after our number is called.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:30 | 1052140 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Yeah, no joke.

I don't tell anyone what I have in storage/stashed.

I don't even bother to tell people to stock-up or prepare for even a short term emergency.

I may begin a campaign of misinformation that implies I have little to nothing.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:18 | 1051492 Tric
Tric's picture

What a fucking nightmare

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:18 | 1051493 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

MSNBC telling us now this is nowhere near 3 Mile island and 3 mile was one million times worse. 

1 inhaled particle of uranium in your lung will likely cause you cancer. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:23 | 1051519 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

of course its never bad until it is...

do these schmucks ever get things right?

no..

protect yourselves..get quickly knowledgable in radiation exposure and safety..dig your well before you thirst!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:17 | 1051494 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

30 minutes ago...that could cause a panic

 

1839: UK nuclear expert John Large tells the BBC that the wind direction off the east coast of Japan is moving round to the south, which could take any radioactive plume from the Fukushima plant over the Tokyo region.
Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:17 | 1051495 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

Once upon a time . . . not so far into the future . . .  

A father, and his small child, are walking through a large island nature preserve. Admiring the flowers, and the birds, they come to a small clearing, in which stands a modest monument. 

The man furrows his brow, reading the inscription at the base of the edifice. "What does it say, daddy?", asks the child.

"It says, 'This column erected in memory of the Japanese People' "

"Who are they?"

 

" . . . I have no idea, dear."

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:58 | 1053481 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Memorable quotes for Planet of the Apes (1968)

George Taylor: Oh my God. I'm back. I'm home. All the time, it was... We finally really did it.

George Taylor [screaming]: You Maniacs! You blew it up! Ah, damn you! God damn you all to hell!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:18 | 1051501 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

As I sent my previous message I see our stock market is hitting the highs of the day (still down, but bot-ing higher)

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:21 | 1051504 iota
iota's picture

If the following letter posted by the BBC blog...

On one end, there is the Japanese media that plays down the nuclear drama and focuses on human drama, and at the other, the foreign media is up-playing the nuclear disaster

I can't be the only person that made this connection.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:26 | 1051530 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Have you seen the news confrences on Japanese television?

Seems to me from the answers and body language that they do not have control and that at a minimum they are being "economic with the truth".

http://www.livestation.com/channels/123-nhk-world-english

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:21 | 1051505 tmosley
tmosley's picture

EVERYONE who is potentially in the path of any fallout should read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potassium_iodide

Get yourself some potassium iodide (NOT Iodate!).  It's cheap and EXTREMELY effective against the only real health risk from this type of fallout--radioactive iodide isotopes.  These travel a LOT further than you think, and accumulate rapidly in the thyroid.  Thyroid cancer is the only health problem identified after Chernobyl, and was virtually eliminated among those who took KI.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:31 | 1051563 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Can you get that at a health food store or only online .... ?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:39 | 1051601 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No idea.  I have enough for about 3500 doses in my lab, so I never even bothered to check availability.

You can buy in bulk from SigmaAldrich for about 13 cents per dose.  As such, I wouldn't expect it to cost too much no matter where you got it from.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:56 | 1051668 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Thanks ....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:30 | 1051819 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Nice to see that when SHTF, fight clubbers will in fact be there for one another.

 

I don't think I've ever seen a civil back and forth b/w tmosley & SS

 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:44 | 1051929 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I answer all valid questions.  I contest all disinformation.  I don't care it it's coming from the Devil, the Pope, my best friend, or a total stranger.  

In this place, there are no friends or enemies.  There is only right and wrong.  One should stand up for what they think is right, and decry what they think is wrong.  

In this case, Spalding is asking valid questions.  In most of our other interactions, he is not, but rather doing other things.  Others have called for his death, but that goes far against my code.  No words could ever cause me to kill someone.  Only aggression.  Words are not aggression unless they are backed with violence or threat of violence, which he has never done.  That doesn't mean I like him.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 23:12 | 1053567 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"I contest all disinformation."

"In this place, there are no friends or enemies.  There is only right and wrong."

That sounds right.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 16:40 | 1051908 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Spalding,

Here's an online link:

http://www.amazon.com/Source-Naturals-Potassium-Iodide-tablets/dp/B00019MLHA/ref=sr_1_11?ie=UTF8&qid=1300134909&sr=8-11

Beware IOSAT, the most common "nuke" version of this.  Price for this a week ago was around $8.00 for a two week course.  Now if you can find it, it's through the roof.  Fuckers.

Spalding.  A normal IOSAT course is 130 MG daily for fourteen days for an adult.  These tabs are 32 MG, but that would be enough for four adults to take a course.

Most good health food stores should have this if not sold out.  It is commonly taken as a supplement for thyroid issues.   Cheaper this way than from "survival" locations.  You are in Midwest, shouldn't be any real panic in stores there yet.  Also, Iodine wound tincture like your grandmother used to use can be painted on high absorption areas of your skin if you need to wait for pills to arrive.

As Mosley said, do not buy Iodate.  It serves the same purpose, but is not nearly as safe.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 17:15 | 1052080 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Thanks. I just purchased some from the Vitamin Shoppe online, 3-4 day back order.

Called the store in Oak Brook, they do not not carry it in the stores, but the woman said over a hundred people called today asking about it ....

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 20:43 | 1052856 TireBite
TireBite's picture

Kelp supplements have potassium iodine as the active ingredient. Check the label. I picked 250 doses for $8 today from the grocery store

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:43 | 1051611 Howard_Beale
Howard_Beale's picture

Of course the birth defects in the Ukraine were off the charts too...so there's more to it than thyroid cancer.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:43 | 1051614 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Biggest piece of crap I heard about Chernie ever. Go read wiki or elenafilapova you idiot.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!