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Tokyo Update: Radiation Level 23 Times Normal
DJ Tokyo Metropolitan Govt: Radiation Level 23 Times Normal Amount
DJ Tokyo Metropolitan Govt: No Immediate Harm To Human Health From Radiation In Central Tokyo
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WTF?
2012 baby. 2012...
oddly coincidental...the number 23 makes yet another appearance.
Charles Darwin's Origin of Species was published in 1859 - 1+8+5+9 = 23. Two divided by three makes 0.666 recurring (allegedly - actually it makes 0.6666666667). The Hiroshima bomb was dropped at 8.15am - 8+15= 23.
more fun facts about the number 23 here:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/23-fascinating-facts-a...
Yea, and 9/11/01 and 3/10/11 = 12/21/12... isn't there something else you can be crazy about :)
Oh gee - it makes 0.6 (zero dot 6 recurring - it shows correctly in the preview, I swear) you Dodo.
With an almost limitless amount of ways of putting together the numbers, I'd be surprised if 23 didn't appear somehow.
What is the normal level and what is the level that begins to really do damage?
Hey, you don't want to bring in reason and calm thinking when a nice panic is setting off?
normal level is .2uSv/hr roughly.
At what level damage occurs? 10,000x this maybe?
Really it depends upon the length of the exposure. 23x normal levels will not pose a statistical risk to anyone. There are places on earth with higher natural ambient radiation levels than this.
Until/unless core materials get ejected up into the atmosphere, surrounding areas will not be dealing with fallout contamination, rather transient gaseous elements which will disperse
Normal is ~ 0.15 uSv (microSieverts, or millionths of Sievert) per hour. It varies widely.
A dose of 1-2 Sieverts will have you puking. Once you get past 2 Sieverts you start seeing serious illness and possibly death, after about 50 Sieverts you'ce pretty much certain to die. You can tolerate more radiation if it's a low dose over a long time than a higher dose for a short time.
So let's call 1 Sv "bad," and let's also give you a week to get to that dose (figure evacuating, etc). A week has 168 hours in it, so a dose rate of 1 Sv/168 = 0.00595 Sv / hour is our "bad" threshold. I'll round to 0.006 to make life easy; this is 6 mSv (milliSeiverts) or 6000 uSv (microsieverts.)
So, 6000 uSv / 0.15 uSv (our background) = 40,000 X normal background.
This is for acute radiation sickness. Cancer, infertility, and the like can happen at much lower levels, indeed _any_ ionizing radiation increases mutation rates and theoretically increases cancer risk. Quite a few consider 100 mSv as the cut-off, that's one-tenth of a Sievert, and would make the cut-off 4,000X normal background.
Watching the radiation meters today, I saw one prefecture hit 4,200 nGy (nanoGrays). Four our purposes Sieverts and Grays can be used interchangably. 4200 nGy is approximately 4.2 uSv, about 28X normal background levels.
If you want perspective, the hot zone around Chernobyl during the accident was ~ 3600 Sv.
That's 24,000,000,000 (24 Billion) times normal background radiation.
If I were in Tokyo, I'd be concerned, hell, I probably would be packing, but I wouldn't be panicing just yet. Radiation levels would need to be more than 100 times what's been measured away from the plant to get to a consequential level.
Awesome information - thanks for that.
Normal is about 1 Banana Dose Equivalent - so we are taking 23 Bananas....
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Banana_equivalent_dose
By Chris Oliver
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Radiation levels in Tokyo surged to 23 times normal on Tuesday, according to reports that cited readings released by the Tokyo metropolitan government. Radiation levels of .809 micro severts were recorded in central Tokyo at 10.00 a.m. local time (9.00 p.m. U.S. Eastern time), reports said. Southerly winds are believed to be pushing a radioactive plume from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, which lies about 150 miles north of Tokyo.
1250 EST March 15
Reuters carried a French Embassy report that the major radiation would arrive Tokyo at approx 0900 EST
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698
[edit to add BBC text and URL]
just stay in your home
How many more times before its harmful? If I were there I would be scarfing down iodine and hittin the road west!
No good.
If Tokyo is seriously in danger this will be a biblical event. S&P could be down 10% tomorrow if it is even possible that Tokyo would have to be evacuated.
and if its not, the rebound will rip your face off. Be very nimble if you try to be a part of this.
Longer term players have it a bit easier, they tend to buy on the way down and sell on the way up.
If by longer term you mean mutual fund youre wrong. They buy heavier on small spikes and never sell. They only sell when theres a catastrophe occuring or a major move lower. Its an awesomely retarded model for long term investing and youre better off putting Charlie Sheen in charge of your retirement savings.
How can you evacuate 13 million densly packed people? Where are they going to go?
Time for Thailand.
-14.20% Seriously stop the exchanges already.
Horrible. Jeez...this is really so tragic.
At least I'm ready to watch the shit hit the fan. Plenty of liquor nearby, all my news feeds queued up, good music playing...
You didn't mention the loaded shotgun, mate. It will come in handy.
Oh right...also sitting 3 feet away from a safe with several assault rifles/shotguns contained within.
Reminder: Tokyo is the world's 11th largest city, with a population approaching 9 million. Moreover, Ukrainians have still not recovered from Chernobyl, 25 years later. This will redound in the lives of individual Japanese people for the rest of their lives as well as their collective ethnic narrative for at least a couple generations. I cannot imagine the turmoil nor the implications/entailments of this definitive black swan event. God help them (and us, if He has leftover time).
Also, thank you, Tyler, for providing reliable, prompt updates on the situation. My donation is on the way to ZH alongside the one for the Japenese task forces.
My understanding that the metropolitan area is 25 to 30 million people that puts the entire metro area at about the biggest city in the world.
Thank you for adding and making me look it up--35,676,000 people in the greater metro area. Unbelievable.
Thats almost the entire population of Canada
From CIA World factbook:
Canada Population
34,030,589 (July 2011 est.)
TOKYO (capital) 36.507 million
So we are going to evacuate 36 million folks before 0900 EST?
This story keeps going from real bad to much, much worse.
I originally thought 13 M, but looked again at 30M+ for metro... even worse! This is terrible.
Leaving past grievances aside, doesn't China have a bunch of empty cities?
Offering the empty cities for refugee habitation might considerably improve their human rights record. Or do I remember something about the Chinese demolishing the cities to rebuild them, thus generating GDP?
Final have people that can afford the spaces they build. Interesting idea actually.
mmm China is contaminated... its rivers, lakes, and its grounds. I don't put anything that comes from China in my mouth. Not toys, nor vegetables. I even stopped buying stuff with "Made in China" logos.
Is it as contaminated as Japan's eastern shore is quickly becoming? I would opt for Inner Mongolia over Tokyo at this point.
You are beyond ignorant.
how fast is it rising is the big question. 23x normal does not sound like something I'd want to be lounging in...how long before it 50x? 100x? at what point does the government admit it's not safe?
Its rising about .10 CPM's per hour. I watched a live geiger from Tokyo for an hour. It went from 22.07 to 22.22 CPMs over an hour or two. If that trend continues we have a serious serious problem. Im going to cash first thing in the AM.
it may *sound* bad but in reality it isn't.
There are places on earth people live that have higher ambient background radiation than 23x normal. One even exceeds dosage limits for radiation workers, yet the people there seem to live long lives (it is near Ramsar, Iran).
One CT scan gives you around 10x your annual radiation exposure in one pop. This means that if Tokyo stayed at these 23x levels for one year, it would be around the same as every person having 2 CT scans.
Right now, levels are (according to what data we have from reports) only dangerously high at the vicinity of the plant, but the levels fall off very rapidly (inverse square law) as distance increases.
This would seem to indicate some level of core breach AT the plant but that none of these materials have spread any further. One SDSU prof was on NBC saying that the 3-digit mSv level readings would be typical of Cs137, which would be present as a fission byproduct (spent fuel).
The real tell is what are the radiation levels elsewhere. If they go high like they are at Fukushima Daiichi, then we would have evidence of broader contamination. The levels in Tokyo would be explained by gaseous elements which will dissipate relatively quickly.
The one thing I have not yet seen is someone putting this in the perspective of comparative radiation exposure to someone who goes thru current US airport security (scatter back-scan) twice a week over the span of a year. In trying to explain exposure levels to someone at work, it occurred to me this would make it much more relevant, but I didn't have time to find the numbers.
You're linear reasoning on this is idiotic. The readings at this point say its time for a vacation somewhere else, or for the dense: "Get out of dodge now!".
Tokyo-Osaka is world's most populous PMSA...evacuation is impossible.
CNN or whomever live just reported that Tokyo municipal gov't says no significant radiation...go figure
history has shown us that government's will ALWAYS lie. If I were in tokyo, I'd be getting the fuck out now.
is Tokyo japanese for Titanic? when are they going to slap a house shed or something on top of those reactors??
'cause the crowd will panic and the damage will multiple by orders of magnitude.
If they acknowledged the problem, it would cause absolute mayhem, they can't do it. If they tell the truth, it's instant fucking insanity.
So, in the absence of evidence, we will ASSUME the worst?
What if the reporting is actually accurate? They certainly know that there are people running live geiger feeds.
More likely, what if some of the reporting is accurate? I expect at this point, they have airdropped more seawater pumping equipment and supplies. There is no more 'investment' to save; even the remaining hard-core board members of TEPCO wants this shit cooled down now.
The absence of evidence is not a good sign. There are many possible outcomes. Some of them catastrophic. No need to assume the best, either. One mistake: you left town for a few days and return when things are normal. The other mistake: you stay put and get a critical dose. I'm making the first mistake.
"getting the fuck out"???? Really? Like people were trying to get the fuck out of Houston a few years ago when a major hurricane was bearing their way? Houston area is about 7 million people. The freeways out of Houston were parking lots. No one went any place. They all sat there in limbo in a worse place than were they started from.
That's why you want to be a little skeptical and leave early.
Would you want to start that kind of panic???
Hell no!
not until they get out first.. and put their shorts in... oh wait, this isnt wall street
Reuters carried a report from the French Embassy in Tokyo that forecast the arrival of radiation in 10 hours. That would be around the time of the NY open.
You pull up the link for the local rad readings page? I think this may be overplayed at the moment.
I haven't seen that link since it got buried.
I have reiterated that evidence of serious contamination will be ratted out by dosimeters like that unmistakably.
If/when you see distant dosimeters start going into the mSv range, you will know then that more energetic contamination has arrived and settled. If not, then it hasn't occurred and catastrophe is averted.
Thus far, there is no evidence of contamination beyond gaseous radionuclides. The intensity reported at the plant is suggestive that the core has liberated some of itself, but the intensity falls off very rapidly at distance- this WOULD NOT occur were there a Chernobyl-style event currently. The gate would be reflecting radiation levels much more similar to those measured at the buildings, instead of 1/12th-1/50th
So this was how it started...
apples newest...the iRAD
all kidding aside..
will all exports from japan need to be tested for radiation?
People will not trust the readings anyway.
Just like people eat food produced in the Gulf region assuming it's contaminated.
Don't worry, market dumping will happen. Stickers can come off and made to say something else. Last year before the Gulf annoyance, everything said the state it was from. "Florida Oranges", "Idaho Potatos", "California Walnuts".
Now it's "Oranges from the USA", "Tomatoes from the USA", "Idaho Potatos", "California Walnuts". Guess what oil filled coritex veggies are being sold under which header?
They zap food in the US with radiation to kill bacteria on food.
Depending on its source, bacteria may be the least of your worries.
So 23 times now, and what's the nuclear calculus for 24 hours from now, assuming a constant rate of change based on the last time frame?
People have a right to know and plan in ways that are best for them and their families.
Web bot predicted humanity tipping point on 11/14. 4 months off isn't bad.
also 15th-25th especially the 25th of march..ill winds or westcoast mega quake too..
According to the live feed from NHK World reactor 4 was not in operation at the time of the earthquake, the fuel probally over heated, generating hydrogen, which exploded, and now there is no building around the reactor...? the fire must be put out. Are they talking about the reactor vessel being breached, the containment building, or the cheap building around the containment building. If the core is exposed, oooff, this is chernobyl. I wish they were more accurate/clear with their statements. Is there a live video of the facility?
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/
Stay indoors with the AC off....somehow i expected much more from the Jap.gov.
For what? Stop a mini nuclear chain reaction from stopping. Once it starts all that can happen is bury it, run away for 5600 years and never dig up the hole again. That's hoping that people in 5600 are smart enough to read the instructions left behind.
Didn't work for the egyptians. Won't work here either. People are amazingly stupid.
Yes, yes, junk me for suggesting donations to the Red Cross, fuckface.
p.s. - If anyone here wants to donate $10 to the Red Cross, which is trying to provide drinking water, food and temporary shelter, text "redcross" to 90999 on you mobile phone.
Telecom companies pitch in for Japan earthquake/tsunami efforts
Dallas Morning News
Also, AT&T wireless customers can text "redcross" to 90999 to give a $10 donation to help the Red Cross with disaster relief, and normal text messaging fees ...
To hell with the Red Cross. They stole half a billion from the 9/11 charity fund to reallocate to their pet projects. Give to the Salavtion Army instead.
That's fine.
Give some cash to whatever charity you think will best provide a warm meal or warm shelter or clean drinking water to someone affected.
It's a first world country. It has a fully functioning central bank. It's own industries.
How is donating going to help here? Especially to the red cross. Food for guns programs in Africa for 40 years. 9/11 ripoffs. Haiti doesn't look any where close to built other than refugee camps.
Please...this game has been played far too many times.
Was listening to real time translation of NHK when they said ...
"This is an extremely serious situation. Where before we have been talking about microsieverts we are now talking about millisieverts. 400 millisieverts around reactor number four today at 10:30 AM (Tokyo time). Those people outdoors are advised to immediately go indoors. If you have to go outdoors to go home, please try to brush off your clothes before you go indoors. If you are within 30 kilometers, try to seal your home. If you have hung your clothes outside to dry, do not bring them back inside. If you have clothes you were going to hang outside to dry, do not put them outside."
Sweet Weeping Jesus on the cross.
barliman
I know...
You know how you aren't getting dosed by radiation and that you've done a good job on sealing the house.
You have no bars on the cell phone and the radio doesn't work anymore. What is it about radiation that people don't get?
TOKYO, March 15 - (Kyodo)
Radiation is feared to have leaked after part of a container vessel was apparently damaged by an explosion at the troubled No. 2 reactor of the quake-hit Fukushima nuclear plant Tuesday morning, its operator said, triggering fears that the problem could develop into a critical ''meltdown'' situation.
Hopefully wind direction changes in favor of the pravailing winds and most of the future radiation can be dumped harmlessly into the Pacific.
Is it still harmless when it accumulates in your delicious Chilean Sea bass? Contaminants accumulate in apex predators (top of the food chain) such as Tuna, or even in grazers. For example, biological anthropologists have (since 1986) found high levels of thyroid and other cancers in the Chuckchi people of far eastern Russia (they live on the peninsula closest to Alaska)-a huge distance downwind from the Chernobyl incident. It was found that the radioactive isotopes from the fallout had accumulated in the lichens that the reindeer ate that the Chuckchi indigenous folks ate. My point with this comment is that exposure to radioactivity in the ambient environment is not the only problem. Another problem is contaimination of water supplies. A greater problem is the gradual accumulation and sequestration of radioactive isotopes in food sources such as predatory fish, sharks, and livestock. That being said, I agree TD--never eating sharkfin soup again is preferable to dusting Tokyo in fallout, if that is the way this situation proceeds.
Yes, I meant harmless in a relative way, but point well taken. Thanks for the info.
Sendai's prevailing winds this time of year, oddly enough, are different from the prevailing winds in Fukushima and points south. Up until about May the surface level prevailing winds at Fukushima come from the north. A quick look at the orientation of the airport runways can provide a clue. I used to fly myself out of a number of these airports, and I always seemed to use RW 34, 36 or 01 during the winter months, and 16, 18 or 19 from May to October.
Somethings up. Nikkei just cuaght a 100 point positive bid. Now the future price is higher than live price.
Central Bank buying-up huge amounts???
And we are officially in a Mad Max world:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1366320/Time-Mad-Max-Libyan-rebe...
If you are in Tokyo and you live next to a nice looking neighbor, this is the time to go over and ask for sex.
Haven't you seen the pictures of the flipper babies born after Chernobyl?
I said have sex, not get hitched or breed a baby.
LMFAO
The NHK video is showing reruns of videos now. I thought there is a live video cam of the Fukushima complex and is it not daylight over there now?
this stuff is Shakespearean, man.
Beware the Ides of March
This geiger counter in Tokyo has the same normal background reading since yesterday when I started monitoring it. The wind has shifted to westerly winds (i.e. blowing east toward the Pacific Ocean).
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-tokyo
The LINK went OFFLINE, hope the guy is ok?!
I think its important to look at the odd 600,000 spent fuel rods on the Fukushima site. If those fuel rods are not covered in storage water they may heat up. Heated MOX (Pu + U combo) rods smoke which may aerosol some very very very bad stuff. I hate posting this shit, but these guys/governments have been wrong and misdirected on a ton of stuff already. Consider if your regional theme park had multiple hydrogen explosions, a ton of earthquakes and a tsunami - do you have any confidence that the wave pool still works after four days of Wrath of G_d?
Consider this, if TEPCO was your investment adviser, would you have fired them by now?
I was thinking about a cave in California gold country. Now its South America.
Keep an eye open as to where US politicians are physically located.
Good luck to everybody.
The Crash is here folks...
NEWS ADVISORY: No-fly zone set for 30-km radius over Fukushima nuke plant: ministry (13:35) - Kyodo
Looks like the US and its allies finally got their no-fly zone, but not where they wanted it...
Just got off the blower with my Sushi broker. Went long a ton on June California Rolls & sold puts on the Sashimi Contango
Here is one @ Chiba, 35km east of Tokyo, remember 6000 uSV/h is a bad dose, it reads @ 0.80 uSV/h right now
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-chiba
1.53
per Nuc Reg Commission:
"§ 20.1004 Units of radiation dose.(a) Definitions. As used in this part, the units of radiation dose are:
Gray (Gy) is the SI unit of absorbed dose. One gray is equal to an absorbed dose of 1 Joule/kilogram (100 rads).
Rad is the special unit of absorbed dose. One rad is equal to an absorbed dose of 100 ergs/gram or 0.01 joule/kilogram (0.01 gray).
Rem is the special unit of any of the quantities expressed as dose equivalent. The dose equivalent in rems is equal to the absorbed dose in rads multiplied by the quality factor (1 rem=0.01 sievert).
Sievert is the SI unit of any of the quantities expressed as dose equivalent. The dose equivalent in sieverts is equal to the absorbed dose in grays multiplied by the quality factor (1 Sv=100 rems)."
My work was monitored in millirem units, so to my reckoning, per the above, seems millisieverts is not negligible and is a concern.
GODZILLA!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7gFlSGXt_k
People are leaving town, or staying indoors.
Meanwhile, Jim Cramer is pumping equities and Caterpillar for reconstruction.
Hey Jimmy boy, the CHINESE HAVE COPIED EVERYTHING CAT AND DEERE MAKE, why the fuck do you think the Chicoms kissed their asses and gave them all that food, liquor, hookers and cash for the past 20 years!!! You are either a paid shill or a complete dolt, perhaps both.
Jesus, like it takes a fucking PhD to figure this shit out...
Christ...
God Bless the regular folks of the world...
Some of the people leaving Tokyo said they feel like rats for leaving.