Too Soon?

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Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:06 | 446462 mtomato2
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Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:07 | 446471 IE
IE's picture

If by soon you mean as far out as next week - then, "no".

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:07 | 446477 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Gold $1,500? $2,000?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:19 | 446530 mabijaoude
mabijaoude's picture

I hope so, but I don't fully understand this second drop in a week.  Gold/silver market is confusing...

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:26 | 446561 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

aussieyen and loonieyen are deflation do you see the 10yr?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:30 | 446573 Kali
Kali's picture

Time to buy more PMs, it's a gift!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:39 | 446605 thesapein
thesapein's picture

Hold tight. We could be in for a wild ride, but don't let them shake you. We could see another dramatic fall for gold and silver, though I'm really curious who is selling their gold and silver positions during a crash? That's like going into a panic and running right out into the line of fire.  

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:41 | 446791 Hammer59
Hammer59's picture

Weak hands. Dont worry, Goldbugs NEVER panic....unless it drops over $80.00 in a single day.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:48 | 446811 Hammer59
Hammer59's picture

Weak hands. Dont worry, Goldbugs NEVER panic....unless it drops over $80.00 in a single day.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:22 | 447051 idoubtit
idoubtit's picture

Zero Hedge is becoming a gold cult.   Nothing wrong with gold but it to hold it in the event of a big decline borders on insanity.  Why not sell it and buy it later?  It's ok to have a thesis but when reality starts contradicting a theory, one would do well to side with reality.

Right now gold is losing momentum to the upside with non-confirmations between the gold price and gold equity prices.  Even in the light of a possible dramatic fall in gold, to recommend holding doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 15:10 | 447165 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

The gold bugs buy physical.  Sell your gold ETF if you are uncomfortable.  The bugs won't be selling their physical for years.  This is a buying opportunity in that context.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 15:28 | 447230 thesapein
thesapein's picture

Basically, my working models aren't very good at making calls on a daily, weekly, or even monthly basis. Star charts are just as good for me. So, instead of thinking like a day trader trying to out smart other day traders, I've gone on to thinking like an investor in my own future.

Why sell what you intend to buy back later unless you can accurately predict these things, in which case, keep that info to yourself because otherwise your own models start to fall apart unless they can factor in themselves, taking into account that anybody can accurately predict these things. Careful the model doesn't overload from the feedback loop. Tricky real world dynamics and all.

Admittedly, I'm not at all sure what range gold should be trading at, personally. It seems fine where it is at for trading as an industrial metal, but could easily trade higher as more people store it in vaults.

So, you call us stubborn. We call you whimsical. But this is all only half of the story. The other half is what you'd have to trade into, such as the FUBAR alternatives.

If you don't know what tomorrow will bring but you had to stop trading today, how would you position yourself?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:40 | 446610 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

"I hope so, but I don't fully understand this second drop in a week.  Gold/silver market is confusing..."

Rising wedge = broken, although the long term rising wedge is still intact. (not to mention that it's been trading at the top of its bollinger band for some time now, while showing massive divergences)

Gold isn't going to 1500, though.  I'd get out pretty soon.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:42 | 446616 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

this isnt that hard everybody aussieyen and loonieyen are down hare... this is deflation... pick it back up in a bit

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:24 | 446744 thesapein
thesapein's picture

Out of gold and into what? Silver, maybe?

Oh, wait, lumber is doing well today. Sure, no one will be building anything for awhile but let's not forget paper!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:34 | 446770 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

The wedge broke on silver too.

Just like the market, the PMs were making negative technical patterns for some time.

Now, gold -40.  Holy buckets.

Told y'all about the rising wedge.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:45 | 446802 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You gotta love how some smug jackasses think that a one day move is a confirmation of their thesis, while ignoring overarching trends.  

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 13:46 | 446962 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

C'mon, it's the only TA some guys will ever see. I tend to believe that Jesse was right. The cup & handle freaked da boyz out...

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 13:50 | 446977 thesapein
thesapein's picture

I can totally get why gold might be overvalued, but silver? Help me understand.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 14:54 | 447123 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

If by paper you mean dollars then absofuckenlutely. Forget all the nonsense about the Fed printing all the debts away. Can't and won't happen.

You can buy more gold later with those "useless" dollars but I doubt the public sentiment would be skewed in that direction when it's bottoming out.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:22 | 446544 Edmon Plume
Edmon Plume's picture

Phys gold is falling off a cliff right now.  $1218 as of right now.  Keep falling so I can buy more!!!

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:27 | 446563 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, you think the spot price is physical gold!?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:41 | 446612 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Yeah, physical gold is even more overpriced, and less liquid.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:21 | 446734 tmosley
tmosley's picture

That new avatar of yours is quite fitting, JB.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:35 | 446773 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

Yes, the GOP does have its head up its ass.  You are correct.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:31 | 446762 thesapein
thesapein's picture

At what rate would you price gold at? Should it be just a little bit above mining costs, assuming supplies are able to continue to keep up with physical demand?

I'm just searching for more objective measures, myself.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:37 | 446781 Johnny Bravo
Johnny Bravo's picture

I don't know that it should be slightly above production costs (400 an ounce) but it shouldn't be selling at a 300% premium either.

I have targets in the 900s for the recent rising wedge, and targets around 600-700 for the longer term rising wedge that has been playing out for ten years.  The longer term wedge is still intact though.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 13:29 | 446921 thesapein
thesapein's picture

If gold only traded as an industrial metal, I'd be more inclined to agree. However, even those who aren't into gold should still be aware of the growing global demand for bullion. I'm aware that this demand could possibly level out, but now? Why now of all times?

Also, consider how historical charts always have anomalies centered on events. Try explaining the charts of the 70's without mention of Nixon pulling the gold standard, just using your lines and curves technique. 

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:40 | 446611 thesapein
thesapein's picture

Lots of gold fleas being shaken off.

Gold bugs holding tight....

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:45 | 446637 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Phys gold is falling off a cliff right now.  $1218 as of right now.  Keep falling so I can buy more!!!

You mean the manipulated paper, phony gold.  

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:08 | 446484 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

How bout SPX 1000?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:29 | 446572 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

with the AUDJPY try 900

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:09 | 446486 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Much better to panic now and avoid the rush later.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:38 | 446603 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture


Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:41 | 446615 thesapein
thesapein's picture

"I recommend you panic."

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:09 | 446488 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

Depends on how short on equities the major houses are. If they went in whole-hog, you could look at a dow 8000 model.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:10 | 446489 Magua
Magua's picture

as quickly as this is falling apart - you may be changing hats quite soon

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:46 | 446638 thesapein
thesapein's picture

Overnight delivery may be too long.

Only hats, no shorts?

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:11 | 446495 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Sometime in 2012 you can remove the nine (9), as global markets will be at virtual ZERO.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:11 | 446496 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

we're just one "fat finger" order away.


Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:29 | 446571 HellZero
HellZero's picture

i have a bid below at 0... just incase

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:11 | 446497 themosmitsos
themosmitsos's picture

it's got ONE TOO MANY ZEROS ON IT :pppp

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:13 | 446507 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Just attach a scrolling LED screen to allow for the changing reality. Then sell advertising space on your chest.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:51 | 446656 thesapein
thesapein's picture

and interrupt yourself every five minutes with a 30 sec add of which you act out for the entertainment of your friends. If they'd prefer you without interruptions, they can subscribe for add-free lively conversations.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:01 | 446675 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture


You're way ahead of me. Do you work on Madison Ave? :>)

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 12:37 | 446783 thesapein
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sorry, you're posting to the demo version of thesapein.

your free responses are up.

if you would like to continue this thread, please subscribe to the full version.

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:11 | 446499 Temporalist
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Everyone's favorite Michael Pento is on CNBC now...

Thu, 07/01/2010 - 11:16 | 446517 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Poor Michael doesn't suffer fools well. The look of incredulous disbelief on his face is priceless.

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