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If by soon you mean as far out as next week - then, "no".
Gold $1,500? $2,000?
I hope so, but I don't fully understand this second drop in a week. Gold/silver market is confusing...
aussieyen and loonieyen are deflation do you see the 10yr?
Time to buy more PMs, it's a gift!
Hold tight. We could be in for a wild ride, but don't let them shake you. We could see another dramatic fall for gold and silver, though I'm really curious who is selling their gold and silver positions during a crash? That's like going into a panic and running right out into the line of fire.
Weak hands. Dont worry, Goldbugs NEVER panic....unless it drops over $80.00 in a single day.
Zero Hedge is becoming a gold cult. Nothing wrong with gold but it to hold it in the event of a big decline borders on insanity. Why not sell it and buy it later? It's ok to have a thesis but when reality starts contradicting a theory, one would do well to side with reality.
Right now gold is losing momentum to the upside with non-confirmations between the gold price and gold equity prices. Even in the light of a possible dramatic fall in gold, to recommend holding doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
The gold bugs buy physical. Sell your gold ETF if you are uncomfortable. The bugs won't be selling their physical for years. This is a buying opportunity in that context.
Basically, my working models aren't very good at making calls on a daily, weekly, or even monthly basis. Star charts are just as good for me. So, instead of thinking like a day trader trying to out smart other day traders, I've gone on to thinking like an investor in my own future.
Why sell what you intend to buy back later unless you can accurately predict these things, in which case, keep that info to yourself because otherwise your own models start to fall apart unless they can factor in themselves, taking into account that anybody can accurately predict these things. Careful the model doesn't overload from the feedback loop. Tricky real world dynamics and all.
Admittedly, I'm not at all sure what range gold should be trading at, personally. It seems fine where it is at for trading as an industrial metal, but could easily trade higher as more people store it in vaults.
So, you call us stubborn. We call you whimsical. But this is all only half of the story. The other half is what you'd have to trade into, such as the FUBAR alternatives.
If you don't know what tomorrow will bring but you had to stop trading today, how would you position yourself?
"I hope so, but I don't fully understand this second drop in a week. Gold/silver market is confusing..."
Rising wedge = broken, although the long term rising wedge is still intact. (not to mention that it's been trading at the top of its bollinger band for some time now, while showing massive divergences)
Gold isn't going to 1500, though. I'd get out pretty soon.
this isnt that hard everybody aussieyen and loonieyen are down hare... this is deflation... pick it back up in a bit
Out of gold and into what? Silver, maybe?
Oh, wait, lumber is doing well today. Sure, no one will be building anything for awhile but let's not forget paper!
The wedge broke on silver too.
Just like the market, the PMs were making negative technical patterns for some time.
Now, gold -40. Holy buckets.
Told y'all about the rising wedge.
You gotta love how some smug jackasses think that a one day move is a confirmation of their thesis, while ignoring overarching trends.
C'mon, it's the only TA some guys will ever see. I tend to believe that Jesse was right. The cup & handle freaked da boyz out...
I can totally get why gold might be overvalued, but silver? Help me understand.
If by paper you mean dollars then absofuckenlutely. Forget all the nonsense about the Fed printing all the debts away. Can't and won't happen.
You can buy more gold later with those "useless" dollars but I doubt the public sentiment would be skewed in that direction when it's bottoming out.
Phys gold is falling off a cliff right now. $1218 as of right now. Keep falling so I can buy more!!!
lol, you think the spot price is physical gold!?
Yeah, physical gold is even more overpriced, and less liquid.
That new avatar of yours is quite fitting, JB.
Yes, the GOP does have its head up its ass. You are correct.
At what rate would you price gold at? Should it be just a little bit above mining costs, assuming supplies are able to continue to keep up with physical demand?
I'm just searching for more objective measures, myself.
I don't know that it should be slightly above production costs (400 an ounce) but it shouldn't be selling at a 300% premium either.
I have targets in the 900s for the recent rising wedge, and targets around 600-700 for the longer term rising wedge that has been playing out for ten years. The longer term wedge is still intact though.
If gold only traded as an industrial metal, I'd be more inclined to agree. However, even those who aren't into gold should still be aware of the growing global demand for bullion. I'm aware that this demand could possibly level out, but now? Why now of all times?
Also, consider how historical charts always have anomalies centered on events. Try explaining the charts of the 70's without mention of Nixon pulling the gold standard, just using your lines and curves technique.
Lots of gold fleas being shaken off.
Gold bugs holding tight....
You mean the manipulated paper, phony gold.
How bout SPX 1000?
with the AUDJPY try 900
Much better to panic now and avoid the rush later.
ALL IS WELL! REMAIN CALM!
"I recommend you panic."
Depends on how short on equities the major houses are. If they went in whole-hog, you could look at a dow 8000 model.
as quickly as this is falling apart - you may be changing hats quite soon
Overnight delivery may be too long.
Only hats, no shorts?
Sometime in 2012 you can remove the nine (9), as global markets will be at virtual ZERO.
we're just one "fat finger" order away.
i have a bid below at 0... just incase
it's got ONE TOO MANY ZEROS ON IT :pppp
Just attach a scrolling LED screen to allow for the changing reality. Then sell advertising space on your chest.
and interrupt yourself every five minutes with a 30 sec add of which you act out for the entertainment of your friends. If they'd prefer you without interruptions, they can subscribe for add-free lively conversations.
You're way ahead of me. Do you work on Madison Ave? :>)
sorry, you're posting to the demo version of thesapein.
your free responses are up.
if you would like to continue this thread, please subscribe to the full version.
Everyone's favorite Michael Pento is on CNBC now...
Poor Michael doesn't suffer fools well. The look of incredulous disbelief on his face is priceless.
Clearly he and Steve Liesman don't go to each other's houses and share laughs.
And Leisman is such a screecher "you were wrong Michael, show me where the inflation from QE is, show me tell me ewee ewee ew". Really !
I saw, and heard, that exchange. Michael was trying to say that there was inflation but it was countered/offset by the massive deflation. Besides, it's the government who's counting inflation, so it's severely uncounted. And the real inflation is around the corner.
But Liesman wouldn't shut up. He acted like he'd just found a 1 lb Gold nugget and he was going to stuff in Michael's face as proof. I'm right and you're wrong. Like a 5 year old who has been wrong for the past 4 years and 364 days, today he's "right" so he's going to make sure EVERYONE knows about it.
Everyone who's been drinking the Kool-Aid is beginning to go into full panic mode. This re-recession just shouldn't be happening from their point of view. So the excuses will now begin.
Well that, and we're not exactly dealing with a single ocean system where liquidity is evenly distributed.
More of an ocean with a small canal lock leading into a vast desert with a dwindling food supply and naturally occurring sand castles.... Maybe a talking dolphin...
Is it vacation time yet?
They needed this to cover their PM shorts and scare us into doing another QE. Now it is time to go back up.
Dow and Gold @ 1:1 ratio = 5,000 Coming soon! Okay. Maybe 4,650 then.
Has the death cross occured on the SPX?
If someone could help with this, it would be much appreciated, my charts are not clear as to when this will occur.
Can you make those zeros into CNBS windows with their most hated personalities?
There are so few zeros and so many CNBS choices....
LOL man Tyler you guys have the best humor. hilarious. Its great to find humor when the world is collapsing.
Agreed. Let's give Independence Day a whole new meaning this year.
Try not to piss yourself laughing when you read this:
I couldn't get past the first "reason." There is probably demand from people buying boxes to move out of their foreclosed homes or buying refrigerator boxes to move into.
Long carboard boxes for apppliances, short actual appliances. Got it
I couldn't gdt pass the headline nor the fact that it is the WSJ
"Why would the two companies involved in every [paper] shipment made around the world increase prices? Because demand is there."
Yes, it is, as governments around the globe need to print more fiat.
That was indeed funny. I'll remember that when the s&p plummets like a falling chainsaw, buy pulp!
I busted out laughing just reading the title! Then I made it to reason #4: Four: Consumer spending won’t slow, even with 10% unemployment. What about 12%, 18%, 0r 23%! Are we creating real jobs all of a sudden?
LMAO, I have a good friend who has worked for the RR for 30 years now, he says he has never seen anything like it, there is no freight, also says that the have to make up stuff to do, like running empty boxcars up an down the rails !!
I agree with all the posters above me. This article is quite funny and Tyler you should check it out if you haven't. Predicting S&P 1500 in these times is bad enough, but the reasons this blogger at the WSJ puts forth are thin!
The only way I can understand it is if this blogger were sitting on this article for awhile, running late with it, and then had to dump it on the blog today, because it was only going to get more unbelievable in the days ahead.
somedoby get me that guy is smoking, we are all gonna need some
Knockin It Out of de Pawk! As usual Ty!
Do you realize you just celebrated your one year anniversary on ZH a few days ago?
Happy birthday Ruth. :>)
What a hugely thoughtful thing to do! CD, you are what's right with the internet.
So that's what Lizzy was talking about, THANKS TO ZH ETAL I'm that much smarter! Growing up is hard to do!
Although I have to admit I probably lurked for sometime before courage to break free out in the open. Thanks Cog, for the Birthday Party and now for my wish!
Ruth no offense but for your ZH birthday instead of giving you a punch I am junking you!
...and one friendly junque from me, too.
Congrats Ruth! Beat me by a day. :P
There you are. I've been looking for you. Lots of veteran ZH birthdays this week. I didn't want to forget you Cursive. Thank you for your contributions to ZH.
Happy birthday Cursive. Since it's a cupcake, you don't have to share. :>)
So shall we junque Cursive today or tomorrow?
Today. Cursive is 1 year and 12 hours old right...........NOW. :>)
Happy Junk Day, Cursive
Happy Birthday Cursive! Make a Wish!
Happy Birthday Ruth, Lizzy & Cursive. Great gang. Peace
Happy Birthday to you Birthday Boy! I'm late by 7 hrs but hey, we're born just a few hours apart!
Now I have to junk you too?!?!
That is more junks for me on one thread than I've given in a month.
Happy ZH bday!
I smell a flash crash/dash this afternoon.
Parse error: parse error, unexpected spanish inquisition in /var/hft/index.php on line 51
Should be a miner's helmet instead of a baseball cap, with a 'ZH' logo on the side of the little light on the helmet.
I like that...how about a pith helmet ?
I'm sure lots of people are pithed.
Yeth. At leatht thumb of uth are.
There will be no talk of a Dow 9,000 hat until you see one on the little chubby man with the red nose (Art Cashins) head.
And let's all remember to donate to ZH this weekend before Ben steals all our short profits.
Are donations to ZH tax deductible?
(first time poster)
Proud to be part of the ZH crew!!
"The error of optimism dies in the crisis but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born, not an infant, but a giant..." - A.C. Pigou, 1920
"The error of optimism dies in the crisis but in dying it gives birth to an error of pessimism. This new error is born, not an infant, but a giant..." - A.C. Pigou, 1920
Except this time, the skeptics are right. Keynesianism doesn't work when you've borrowed as much as (or more than) you take in.
what happened to flash crash 2.0?????
what happened to the LTRO needing to be rolled over?
If tomorrow the Non Farm Payroll comes below 100,000 (including Census), SPX will fall well below 1000, then nothing will may stop the fall, it will be an atmospheric reentry, and Dow 9000 is just a matter of a few days.
On the other side, at the time of the announcement of Non Farm Payroll, I will be watching Brazil vs Holland, so I only will know if the market completely disintegrated when I wake up at Saturday afternoon, with a fucking hangover. Well, if the game ends the first half at 0 x 0 and the level of alcohol in my blood permits, I'll try going to a computer during the halftime interval to see the disgrace.
The market is having a "mid-day miracle" again anyway. I would even be surprised to see it reverse all losses today by the close.
It's completely detached from reality anyway. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see some seriously epic manipulation by the bell.
Oh right, so the market moves from -140 to -100 in a straight line over 20 minutes. Yeah, that doesn't look suspicious at all.
Try -88, of course.
Look at IYR...now THAT's just unbelievably fucked up. Yet, they do it over and over and over again. Reggie wrote a good piece today on it.
...and yet Lumber is limit up on the Merc in the face of it all. If it's just hurricane related cover, why is November in contango? Going to keep that hat next to my Newsweek cover with the bear on it.
You deserve to make money just for having such a clever name. Nice.
Lumber below 200 bankrupts sawmills in canada. I think there was technical support plus a little self presevtion stategies playing out.
Maybe lumber has already been hit harder or already bottomed ahead of other markets?
Do you accept payment in USD, Euros or Gold?
but but but GM's domestic sales in June rose nearly 11% Obamessiah said all is good in the hood. Ben "Weimar/Zimbabwe" Bernanke said all is good. Are the lying and clueless to the economy?
I see the Squid finally booted up their computers for the day. Look at the rebound on all bad news.
Chasing out the shorts and puts.
Not too soon to send out orders for 2.0 to manufacturing -- even w/ the quick turnaround at idled Chinese factories. You may have to keep the 3.0 in inventory for a LONG, LONG time.
ES marching back to 1030 in anticipation of manana.
Edit: I'm targeting 1021... 1030 would be typical overshot but I don't trade for those on days like today.
Tomorrow should be insanely volatile.
Slightly off topic Inflation comment: I track the one critical path item none can do without* Angel Soft is always the cheapest. It USED to be 501 st ft for $6.49 at Publix, Walmart, anyplace that carried it. Once in a while Walmart would have a sale for $5.99 and I think I remember seeing $5.49 though not on a regular basis. Now= you can not get the 501 sq ft package at any price. The largest is 400 sq ft packages. Make sure you ignore # of rolls and roll size- only the total sq ft matters. This is an increase of 20% that occurred in one fell swoop.
I've also seen this in other personal items that are hard to do without- contact solution has gone from 4 to 3.5 ounce bottles AND the price went up a dime. I;ve been trying to pay close attention since Dec, 2008 and I see these getting worse and worse.
How bad does the REAL cost of living: eat, drive, poop, have to get before we admit there is an inflation problem?
And could someone explain to me how reducing the amount of TP in a package is a monitary supply issue- I have some ideas.teehee... CB
*OK a bit of hyperbole but you get the idea.
I don't know if that last question was serious or not, but it's done to avoid sticker shock. Producers have found that reducing quantity while maintaining price has a less adverse effect on sales than increasing price. Customers notice when price goes up a lot more often than they notice when the quantity goes down.
But khaki's at the Gap are on sale! Let's see...crude went from $40 to $70 (I'll discount another dollar or two because we're getting there), but energy prices don't count. Health Insurance premiums are up 5-25%, but they don't count. Hell, my friday night pizza and beers with my wife cost 20% more than last year, but they don't count. Personally, I wish we really had deflation on the things that matter, but it's clearly not the case. I don't need any new pants, but my family is looking forward to dinner every night
its called stealth inflation..its rampant..tuna fish is now 5oz instead of 6 oz.
64 oz of OJ now 59 oz...pt of icecream now 14 oz..64 oz of ice cream now 48 oz.
everything has gone down in size and up in price..
I do not buy much ice cream, but would'nt that be false advertising? A pint is 16 ounces, not 14. Or are they now selling it as 14 ounces?
Hmmm, wonder when a quart of motor oil will be 30 ounces? Might have to start pouring it out into a measuring cup and see if it is already happening.
Have gas stations re-calibrated their pumps so one gallon is 120 ounces, instead of 128? Now that would really seriously piss me off! 8-(
I thought I was the only nutjob tracking container sizes. The one I like to use is spaghetti sauce. The jars used to be 32 oz., then they went to 28 oz, then 26, then 24. My wife showed up with some Giada DeLaurentis brand sauce that was in a 23.5 oz jar. You can still find some in different quantities but they are definitely shrinking.
Also a "pound" of coffee now tends to be 12 oz., at least for the good stuff (non-Folgers crap).
Generally when you tell people "this is what inflation looks like" they might give a slight nod, but I don't think people fully realize the situation because it is like the frog in the pot of water...the changes happen slowly enough that it's hardly noticeable.
How long tell Obama issues his "stocks are a good value here" V2.0 recommendation?
Lizzy just celebrated her one year ZH birthday 20 minutes ago.
Happy birthday Lizzy.
+1 Just a suggestion here. To celebrate next year, we need a mud wrestling match between Marla, Ruth and Lizzie. Think "Stripes".
Oh Lizzy you get a ZH birthday junk from me too then.
I'm classier. I give "Junques" for birthdays!
Happy Birthday Lizzy.
Should we start a club for those who've made it to their first birthday?
Thanks Lizzy for the salutation this a.m. Happy Birthday TOO! Now we can celebrate together! Whohoo!! Meet ya at the #bar, let's kick off our shoes and dance our socks off, maybe we can get Steak to give us a tune! Hat Tips to Cog our official Party Boy!
Please, let algos and HFT drive this market back up.
I'm not 100% positioned for the coming Q3 and Q4 crash!
... went only 50% short at S&P 1090
Your hats are so last century. Need one with programmable LED numbers so we can keep up.
The Deluxe version will keep itself constantly updated with a real-time 4G connection.
(I know, I know, it's brilliant but please don't embarrass me with exorbitant praise.)
Timmy the maggot found as a stowaway in rotten meat
"And as they're telling us to stay calm and seated, I see a maggot looking back at me and I'm thinking, 'These are anaerobic, flesh-eating larvae that the flight attendants don't have to sit with.'"
Where is Goldilocks Mr. Kudlow? And seriously, could they fit any more monitors on the set of "The Strategy Session"? I know I shouldn't be watching, but no soccer means I'm desparate
Don't worry, Greenspan just said: "the recent decline is typical of recovery"
Obama, you're holding the economy wrong. Try removing your hand from the lower left corner.
VIX flat today... There needs to be a 5% selloff tomorrow to make it go up and stay up. No fear in the VIX, none.
From the title I thought Tyler was talking "Claire Wolfe",
glad to see it was just the Dow 9000 hat.
Anyone long the ES from the lows today besides me? My sell stop at 1010.75. Aiming for 1021 on this mini melt up.
ok, I'm stopping this scalp posting nonsense, lest the algos learned to read the internets for stops.
As much as I hate the rigged melt ups, it was nice to profit from it.
Massive Gold and Silver attack today. Ignore it, it's just the crooks at Comex playing again.
Was this CNBC's effort to confuse the headline reading algos?
"Grew More Slowly...."
I think that 9000 would have a lot more visual impact in Red.
I'll take a GOLD 1200 3.0
Now that that's done, can I place an order for GOLD 1000 X.X? Please send before August.
More like 4.0? Wait, 6.0, since 2002-3 had a visit.
1998goingup, 1998dn, 1998up, 2002dn, 2003up, 2008dn, 2009up, 2010dn.
That would be 8.0. Could be final version.
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