This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Total Bond Market Chaos!

Tyler Durden's picture


If someone is hell bent on breaking the bond market, they are doing a bang up job.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:11 | 1477673 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I suppose this is why they are called bonds. Because they are meant to be broken.

It's proving to be every bit the week I had expected.

Bang bang!

Just looked deeper, that is a Holy Tish chart.

holy tish!


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:19 | 1477734 wsmith
wsmith's picture

How is that penis pump working out for you?


Glad to hear it.

Anway, so long.

And God bless all you Marxist cocksuckers.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:44 | 1477823 wsmith
wsmith's picture

Brother, I don't give Obama that much credit.

He's just a fucking waiter doing what he's told.

America doesn't exist.  It is now the United States of Goldman Sachs.

And our president is just steppin' and fetchin' for the powers that be.

But what the fuck do I know.

Anyway, so long.

And God bless all you Marxist cocksuckers.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:52 | 1477849 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Support is being tested for PMs.  SIlver at $39, gold at $1585, just like I have said...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:08 | 1477923 akenathon
akenathon's picture

yup and now no one owns gold and silver anymore and bonds are giving a huge signal to exit all the dollars you could but seems that no one care it.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:21 | 1477955 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Rates can not and will not rise, or else Obama/Boener will have to not only cut entitlements and slash deductions, but raise taxes, and raise taxes huge.  How they will secure revenue in a depression I do not think they can comprehend, but they might be having fun running the fiat ponzi into the ground.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:34 | 1478025 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

It's okay.

ObamaCare will save us.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:26 | 1478573 11b40
11b40's picture

They have plenty of ink, and will print until they run out.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 20:25 | 1479227 Mongrel
Mongrel's picture

I like the way you think . . . US of GS. So true . . .

Remember: brass and lead are precious metals, too. Get some!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:17 | 1477763 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I thought you were leaving.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:37 | 1477799 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:39 | 1477801 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Did somebody upset you?

Take a chill pill.


Or at least get a sense of humour.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:24 | 1477985 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

pills inefective.... needs brain transplant (waiting list too long, though)

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 23:04 | 1479556 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Lots of donors available, but the Brainz Quality is in the noise floor!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:09 | 1477677 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

That looks healthy.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:29 | 1477768 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Is there a credibility index? lol

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 04:05 | 1479807 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

It's looking like the budget deal is getting sicker and sicker.

But ya it definitely needs a credibility index. LOL

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:41 | 1477813 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Just saw on FOX that Standard and Poor's will make an announcement at 3 o'clock.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:10 | 1477680 SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

Anyone still in US T-bonds deserves to be banged up!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:25 | 1477735 Boston
Boston's picture

Sold ALL my 5 year T-notes on Monday.

But, as mentioned here yesterday, I'll wait for a big one-two week pullback in prices (ala late June), and then go long again---with the fundamental reasoning being that NOTHING has really been the US or Euroland.

I'd like to see 1.7% - 1.8% on the 5 year to enter again.

Bottom line--this is a huge opportunity in the making.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:44 | 1477824 GiantWang
GiantWang's picture

What is the best way to invest in T-bills with a small portfolio?  Is there an ETF with little slippage?  What is the futures designation?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:50 | 1477834 Boston
Boston's picture


Zero commissions, and very tight bid/ask spreads.  Use limit orders.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:51 | 1477844 GiantWang
GiantWang's picture

Do you have a symbol?  That's what I was looking for . . . . Thanks, Boston.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:13 | 1477945 Boston
Boston's picture

Go to Fixed Income => search inventory => US Treasury.

You can choose whatever Bill/Note/Bond you like.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:23 | 1477750 HITMAN56
HITMAN56's picture

...where do bad folks go when they die...they dont go to heaven where the angels fly...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:31 | 1477778 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

they go to a lake of fire and fry....


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:28 | 1477994 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

don't see em again til the _________________ [insert nonsequitor that rhymes].

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:56 | 1478140 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

day you die?

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 01:18 | 1479690 snowball777
snowball777's picture

treasury bills fly.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:10 | 1477681 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

Is this bullish or bearish joking aside?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:12 | 1477705 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Yes.  Obviously.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:13 | 1477711 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

In other words who knows?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:16 | 1477720 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

What instrument? 

Which millisecond? 

Pre or post rumor?

Which rumor?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:17 | 1477728 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

hehe... sorry about that... ES

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:19 | 1477738 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Don't quit your day job.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:24 | 1477753 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Yeah, obviously everything is.  Until it's not.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:19 | 1477733 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Well, if you listen to the BlowHorn [CNBC] on a regular basis, it is uber bullish for stocks because it indicates fund flows out of fixed income and into "stawks."  However, as fixed income guys know, that is true only for the time it takes to arbitrage the shit out of the last and dumbest algo in the room...which I think is down to about 100th of a second.

Capital context has been tracking credit deterioration for weeks now [not sure why they stopped posting to their site just when I was getting the swing of their strategy].

And as the market just proved to you, equity prices are very transitory, pricing in "Greece is fixed" multiple times followed by equity sell orders hitting a collapsing bid until some stub quote at 3 cents hits.

This isn't a market.  It is a Ponzi scheme for the algorithmically no rational thought about it is fruitful.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:30 | 1477770 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Brother Cdad,

You should start calling it CornHole. More accurate.


Brother CD

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:43 | 1477812 Cdad
Cdad's picture

"This afternoon, CornHole reported that a deal had been struck between the R's and the President, causing "investors" to lock arms in bullish bliss...until 3 minutes later, when the CornHole retracted the story, revealing to arms locked bulls that they were, in fact, in the embarrassing position of being in a circle jerk."

Hmmmm?  Not sure it quite has that sweet ring to it...but I'll consider it, brother Cog.

Yours most sincerely,

Cdad...a bond vigilante


**The 30 year for the last few days has been doing what we call in my neck of the woods "the crappie flop."  Per years of my experience, the next step is....death.**

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:34 | 1478024 centerline
centerline's picture

I hereby salute you for the funniest thing I have read today!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:45 | 1477822 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Abby Joseph Cohen and Laszlo Birinyi were just on, and they said that only 3% of the dry powder they spoke of 3 months ago has been put into the markets, so they concluded that the markets could rise whatever the tally of 97% (dry powder left) x margin allowed.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:31 | 1478007 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Abby Joseph Cohen? The Queen of Pump? That's a very bad sign and the mark of sheer desperation. Look out below.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 01:19 | 1479691 snowball777
snowball777's picture

burrish, no blearish.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:10 | 1477683 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

meanwhile gold and silver plunging, dollar whip sawing and the /ES steady as a rock.

what the fuck????????

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:55 | 1477863 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

A debt deal here in the US would cause a gold sell off. The PM's are being sold in anticpation of this. They may be a bit too optimistic.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:31 | 1479062 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

Any pullback in Gold and Silver is just another chance to buy again.  No matter what these globalists say or do concerning debt restructuring here in the U.S. or in Europe we will be back year after year listening to the same emergency bailout scenario of another country to flop.  Its all just kicking the can down the road.  There is not enough money on this planet to make the U.S. or Europe solvent.  Pretty soon we'll be raising the debt ceiling not every six months, but every six weeks and then every six days.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 23:09 | 1479563 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yes, just waiting for another big dip in Au...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:24 | 1477981 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The market can't decide if the physical market dictates the real supply, or if the paper market does.

All I can say is get physical while they are still in the dark.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:48 | 1478093 viahj
viahj's picture

great news! I've got my Chase Platinum MC handy and on the computer.  max out, take possession, default...won't be long now.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:10 | 1477684 economessed
economessed's picture

Let me guess:  Ben Bernank and his possee of financial terrorists?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:10 | 1477685 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Goatta get 'liquidity' from somewhere

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:10 | 1477686 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Sell em all bitchez! Sell! Sell! Sell!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:10 | 1477687 Bob
Bob's picture

The headline reading algos really should observe a few second lag to accomodate conflicting information, me thinks.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:12 | 1477698 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Doesnt matter if they are faster than you if they react to the wrong info.

Probably some new strategy.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:16 | 1477726 HITMAN56
HITMAN56's picture

2nd dat

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:11 | 1477696 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And the precious metals aren't going back up after the news the deal is BS.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:13 | 1477712 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

They need to dive substantially so I can make my final load up.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:37 | 1477798 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Indeed papaswamp; I shall stay my hand in this madness.  But what ultimately is dependable? 


I would submit - that central banks will print money to bail their masters and temporarily sate the roiling masses.

Place your bets!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:15 | 1477718 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That would be my read as well.

BTFD, while there is still physical gold around.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:17 | 1477731 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Yeah, fancy that.  A couple of days out from Options Expiry and, despite all the crisis meetings in Brussels and Washington and all the frantic bailing to keep the Euro and Dollar from sinking, any and all excuses (even erroneous ones) are used to smack metals down.  It's almost like......someone wants them taken down.  Spooky.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:26 | 1477756 Arius
Arius's picture

crisis ... what crisis ??


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:40 | 1477809 ItsEvolutionBaby
ItsEvolutionBaby's picture

You're not complaining are you?

I like my silver cheap.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:12 | 1477700 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Is this risk free or what!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:13 | 1477707 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

trial run

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:13 | 1477709 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

You're nuts to be trying to trade PMs, esp with any leverage.  Take delivery--the war is won.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:17 | 1477730 SilverDosed
SilverDosed's picture

Even better, buy at brick and mortar store, pay in cash, watch your withdrawal and purchase limits so as not to raise any red flags, bury in yard, plant tree over buried stash.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:19 | 1477737 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Heard a guy say, a few years back, that he buried old car alternators all over his backyard to confuse anybody with a metal detector.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:28 | 1477764 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Yeah, baby, gots to spoof the vault.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:48 | 1477836 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

scatter a ton of bb's to increase the noise, throw in some washers, sinkers, clad, and plated gold..

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:58 | 1477879 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

That's funny, but not as good as just not telling anyone you own it. PM stackers are still an exclusive club, they'll stay that way longer if we don't brag about our winnings.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:13 | 1477710 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I love the smell of burning bond markets in the afternoon.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:32 | 1477780 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Is that the smell of victory or defeat?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:36 | 1477792 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

For most people it is the smell of defeat. Or is that 'de feet'.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:38 | 1478039 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Disposing of a corpse in a fireplace? "Da feet first I reckon"

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:14 | 1477713 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

is there any way to trade bond vol?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:15 | 1477719 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Well, I guess Bernanke, Krugman, and the rest of those Keynsian f***heads are right - the secret to perpetual prosperity is to just keep spending money you don't have. I always thought physical supply constraints might have some bearing on prices, but apparently not, apparently if you run out of money, just borrowing or printing more is all that's required, forever, without any consequences ever. Awesome, fucking awesome.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:54 | 1477862 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

There has to be some kind of physical supply constaint.  If they weren't using futures to suppress commodity prices, maybe there wouldn't be supply contraints.  But the more they debase the currencies, the more they will tinker with indirect price controlls....and i've got to believe that shortages will come a'calling.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:15 | 1477722 camoes
camoes's picture

Aren't bonds supposed to be "risk-free"??? They lied to me at my MBA Finance class and books!!!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:16 | 1477727 wsmith
wsmith's picture

All my money is in Jinro soju.

I think I made a sound decision.

Anyway, so long.

And God bless all you Marxist cocksuckers.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:28 | 1477765 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

Jinro Soju

Good call. While the Koreans already drink as much as is physically possible, there should be a huge market in the U.S., with 100 Million newly impoverished, pensionless winos looking for something in the $1 a bottle range.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:45 | 1477825 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

All the US makes anymore is old people.

Invest in whoever makes Depends and Viagra.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:42 | 1478633 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Actually, the group-entitlement blacks and mestizos are reproducing quite rapidly. Unlike the whites, they're getting paid for it.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:53 | 1478674 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

We are not allowed to criticize them because they are special.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:17 | 1477729 ivana
ivana's picture

Guys, check EU bonds today! Periphery yields went down aprox 6-7-8% (like it matters!) but all core EU yields went UP 9-10% !!!

Think this is major sign to bond holders to start unloading US bonds... now NYT robos and algos will have to work overtime !!!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:10 | 1477926 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Makes sense on the core Euro yields, they after all are the backstops to the periphery now.

Stacking on debt without adding productive capacity kinda sucks.

Not sure why this people should unload from US bonds, especially since core euro is now LESS creditworthy.

In fact all you need is now for either spain or italy to come into play for the whole euro to be fucked over.

Previously each state's credit was seperate now with these shenanigans they are joined at the hip.

No way Germany can bailout spain or italy.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:19 | 1477736 bogey4
bogey4's picture

"Breaking the bond market(?)"

I don't know wtf you're looking at or what kind of chart you're posting but twos are off a whole 1/32 on the day, wait, a thirty-second and a quarter now.  It's more of a snoozefest than anything at all exciting. 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:31 | 1477776 Cdad
Cdad's picture

You're looking at the wrong end of the curve...or the short end where the Fed has already promised to fix the rates.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:20 | 1477741 r101958
r101958's picture

Manipulation via media.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:20 | 1477742 Arius
Arius's picture

depending on what kind of money you are gambling with ... if it's other peoples money its always bullish...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:23 | 1477748 caerus
caerus's picture

on 7/13, ESI broke out of pennant that began forming on 5/5...that strong breakout above 36 was followed by three more sessions of increasing prices, including 3 tests of the 38 level.  imho today's Ag pullback should be seen as a healthy retracement while Ag consolidates 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:33 | 1477782 azusgm
azusgm's picture

This was posted on one of the comments yesterday. The guy makes an excellent case about the manipulation in the PMs.

Jesse has already made his point about price action around options expiry. His charting is beautiful.



Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:01 | 1477889 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Saw that. very interesting

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:26 | 1477755 monopoly
monopoly's picture

bonds, "risk free". Good one. +1

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:31 | 1477772 camoes
camoes's picture

Off-topic: XAGUSD not trading at IB, anyone else is having the same problem? Is this silver confiscation ongoing?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:34 | 1477774 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
  • 12:45 pm est:     New York Times is told by Obama Admin that deal is near.
  • 1:00 pm est:       New York Times prints story 15 minutes thereafter.
  • 1:20 p.m. est:     Obama Admin emphatically denies NYT Story, even condemning their shameful rumor mongering.
  • 6:00 a.m est:      Prior to telling the New York Times that deal was near, Obama Admin had informed JP Morgan & Goldman Sachs of current status of negotiations on debt deal, supplying transcribed minutes of 'closed door' meetings.
  • Months ago:       Prior to all of this, The Bernank is instructed  by Mr. 'X' to get a deal done and put it in his pocket, not to pull it out until "taxpayers put the lube on their bums or else they get the hose again."
Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:32 | 1477781 espirit
espirit's picture

Green Chutes?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:33 | 1477785 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

If a deal is passed, the Dow could go up 1,000 points in a week.

Lots of stocks have formed huge bases, big breakouts could occur in many names.

Exhibit A is Enerplus Resources, which pays a 7% yield and has been consolidating for 6 months:



Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:36 | 1477793 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Is that what TZOO is doing?  Forming a base?  What, a subterranean base?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:41 | 1477814 caerus
caerus's picture

"subterranean base"  lol

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:43 | 1477821 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

for the win

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:45 | 1477827 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL crack me right up, TZOO forming a base, yea a Deep Underground Military Bunker apparently.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:56 | 1477871 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:45 | 1477817 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Just wanted to be the first to say, "Who cares..."

(Man... you gotta be quick on the draw around here.  Oh, I get it.  You have to scroll down to the post a comment box, slip in some gibberish, go back and read the article, and then come back to flesh out your dummy comment.   You guys are slick!)

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 20:03 | 1479162 Hulk
Hulk's picture

front runners, they are...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:57 | 1477877 oldman
oldman's picture

You have the markets all to yourself, Robo

Have fun!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:59 | 1478690 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:35 | 1477789 mynhair
mynhair's picture

9am special conference of Repubs tomorrow

cave time

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:22 | 1477974 docj
docj's picture

Yep. Sure as heck sounds like The Party of Stupid is preparing to snatch defeat from the clutches of victory once again.

You can almost set your watch to it.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:22 | 1478755 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Yep. Boner, McConnell, Pelosi, Reed...all invested in the same Ponzi. Pelosi alone +$20 million since '08.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:37 | 1477794 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Confusing enough to put Barry The 0 off his golf game.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:39 | 1477805 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture

Is the gold and silver ponzi scheme about over as recovery 2.0 is emerging? Starting to feel bad for those of you who bet your life on a collapse. Good Luck to all!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:25 | 1478760 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Get your running shoes on,'re gonna need 'em.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:40 | 1477806 dcb
dcb's picture

mini flash crash bond market today, crude yesterday.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:53 | 1477856 jonytk
jonytk's picture

Bernanke's computer crashed again, Bah...

look at 12:40 when he pressed BUY 1billion $ of each kind of bond...

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:43 | 1477819 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Gold down $16:  Check

XRT and IYR at 52-week highs:  Check

TZOO down 33% but still up 250% for the yearCheck

NEM still flat for the year, despite $1,500 gold:  Check

Full control of financial markets by TPTB:  Check

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:47 | 1477832 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wait but you said when gold drops, then equities drop. 

Wow must nice being you just rearranging 'your call' daily to whatever happens to fit, after the fact.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:55 | 1477864 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

Then act like you knew it was going to happen... check!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 15:24 | 1478300 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

he is such a douche

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:05 | 1477912 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The XRT is NOT at a 52 week high.  Losing your touch, Robo?

I wish it was...because when oil takes out 100 tomorrow to everyone's disbelief [because no one can see it coming], just about every momo chasing lemming on Wall Street will suddenly realize that he is backwards on the macro trade...which makes for good selling.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:53 | 1477855 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

We all know who that "person" is. That was the person of the year (per Times).

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:54 | 1477861 Borkafatty
Borkafatty's picture

Its the Terrosits fault.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:56 | 1477866 BeerWhisperer
BeerWhisperer's picture


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:59 | 1477880 hejss
hejss's picture

Not far from breaking the trendline from 80´s. And is that an inverse hs? 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:00 | 1477884 ian807
ian807's picture

If someone is hell bent on breaking the bond market, they are doing a bang up job.

I think someone is. I think it may be both the democrats and the republicans together.

It sounds like a conspiracy theory. Perhaps it is. Unfortunately the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that a decision has been made by the government/finance community to save the economy by killing the dollar.

This is how I think it will go.

1) The deadline for the debt ceiling comes and goes with no agreement.

2) The bond market gets less and less stable as the government continues to stall on a debt ceiling increase. Eventually, the market for USA debt is essentially zero, at any interest rate.

3) Our debt is now unfinanced. The part of the economy driven by government spending shrinks. The overall economy collapses, bringing on deflation.

4) The Fed announces that it will fight deflation with money printing (called by some popular name) and pumps in so much money that the USA's currency starts looking like Zimbabwe's.


1) The USA has inflated its way out of all dollar-denominated debt.

2) The wage and price structure of the developed world re-align to that of China and the BRICs. The USA is now competitive when it comes to manufacturing

3) Jobs come back to the USA and Europe. Full employment is the norm.

4) China is left with the unpalatable choices of keeping the Yuan pegged to the dollar, thus wiping out much of the wealth of its domestic population, or letting the Yuan float, depressing its export economy. Either way, China's economic power, and by extension, its military power, is neutralized.

I'm sure the thinking is that if default is inevitable, it's better to have it happen now while the USA and Europe have military power, money and oil, rather than wait 10 years and watch China and the BRICs grow stronger and richer while the USA and Europe erode both financially and militarily.

Can someone tell me why I'm wrong here?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:15 | 1477952 qussl3
qussl3's picture

You presume the TPTB are on the side of the west.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:35 | 1478027 Bang Dae Ho
Bang Dae Ho's picture

and you presume the TPTB are on the side of the east? I presume TPTB are on the side of the TPTB and they are shitting towards any direction they possibly can. The more slaves are begging for their glare and grandeur and charity, the greater their mental and physical poverty, the more fun TPTB have to shit on them/us.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:07 | 1478501 ian807
ian807's picture

I'm assuming the TPTB have factions too. Even if not, imbalances leading to major social strife and the breakup of the USA as a unitary political entity may not be desirable if the entity in question has the world's largest quantity of nuclear weapons. From that point of view, saving the USA by trashing the dollar might seem a bargain.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:38 | 1478043 Natasha
Natasha's picture

Wages are $3 an hour and gas is $10 a gallon.

Full employment is unlikely as it will cost more to get to work than one makes in a day.

The only way your idea will work is if prices fall to meet the new wage. With a currecy that has been devalued enough to make 15 trillion look manageable, that is not gonna hapen.


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 17:29 | 1478783 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Ian, you are much smarter than they are. "They" just proceed from crisis to disaster and back again. Other than day-to-day, maybe week-to-week, they don't have a clue...except to keep the Ponzi going as long as possible.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:02 | 1477894 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Yawn, you call that chaos? C'mon, this is a blip! Back up in yields in 94-95, now that was something!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:23 | 1477979 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Shouting fire in a closed theatre:


Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:27 | 1477990 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

bonds down = stocks up.... looking for NEW 52 WEEK HIGHS any day now. un-fukin'-believable

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:36 | 1478033 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

Parliament of Crooks and Thieves and Liars:


hosted by the Dancing Ito Berflunkies jointed by the Dancing Czars,


joined by the Dancing alphabet media whores,

kicking the Cans of the Rears of the

Gang of Dancing Turncoats, and Liars.


Dancing Prancing, as capital is fleeing....offshore.


Fox POLL: 62% dont trust the Gummymint?

only 62%....

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 15:43 | 1478395 Bob
Bob's picture

Of Fox viewers?  Looks like they better ratchet up the message!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 19:23 | 1479039 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

38 % are getting a check from the government. They do not trust their fellow citizens to continue to fund their checks.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:39 | 1478050 heywood jablowme
heywood jablowme's picture

The bid/offer is 1/4 wide for any kind of size, 1 point moves should not bother anyone.  That is what happens when the largest buyer in any market steps away.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:52 | 1478120 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Time for Bill Gross to put down his summer reading fiction books and make comment on CNBC, isn't it? Did not he say bonds will plunge?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 15:10 | 1478227 Dark Space
Dark Space's picture

This chart is not accurate. I have no idea how you made it look like that but if you run it in Bloomberg you will very quickly see that the 2 year is not at 2.4% and hasn't been since 2008...

It hasn't even breached 1% in over a year. See here

How did you fake the Bloomberg screen?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:17 | 1478542 SkySavage
SkySavage's picture

The chart shows change in basis points.

2.02 = +.0202 move in yield (as indicated at the top of the chart).

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:41 | 1478630 Dark Space
Dark Space's picture

That makes a WHOLE lot of sense - I stand corrected.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:55 | 1478679 Jack Kreuz
Jack Kreuz's picture

Today, bonds had high correlation to natural gas with almost same volatility.

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 03:47 | 1478834 uranian
uranian's picture


Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!