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If someone is hell bent on breaking the bond market, they are doing a bang up job.
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I suppose this is why they are called bonds. Because they are meant to be broken.
It's proving to be every bit the week I had expected.
Just looked deeper, that is a Holy Tish chart.
How is that penis pump working out for you?
Glad to hear it.
Anway, so long.
And God bless all you Marxist cocksuckers.
Brother, I don't give Obama that much credit.
He's just a fucking waiter doing what he's told.
America doesn't exist. It is now the United States of Goldman Sachs.
And our president is just steppin' and fetchin' for the powers that be.
But what the fuck do I know.
Anyway, so long.
Support is being tested for PMs. SIlver at $39, gold at $1585, just like I have said...
yup and now no one owns gold and silver anymore and bonds are giving a huge signal to exit all the dollars you could but seems that no one care it.
Rates can not and will not rise, or else Obama/Boener will have to not only cut entitlements and slash deductions, but raise taxes, and raise taxes huge. How they will secure revenue in a depression I do not think they can comprehend, but they might be having fun running the fiat ponzi into the ground.
ObamaCare will save us.
They have plenty of ink, and will print until they run out.
I like the way you think . . . US of GS. So true . . .
Remember: brass and lead are precious metals, too. Get some!
I thought you were leaving.
Did somebody upset you?
Take a chill pill.
Or at least get a sense of humour.
pills inefective.... needs brain transplant (waiting list too long, though)
Lots of donors available, but the Brainz Quality is in the noise floor!
That looks healthy.
Is there a credibility index? lol
It's looking like the budget deal is getting sicker and sicker.
But ya it definitely needs a credibility index. LOL
Equity and bond market charts have been looking pretty FUBAR for some time:
Just saw on FOX that Standard and Poor's will make an announcement at 3 o'clock.
Anyone still in US T-bonds deserves to be banged up!
Sold ALL my 5 year T-notes on Monday.
But, as mentioned here yesterday, I'll wait for a big one-two week pullback in prices (ala late June), and then go long again---with the fundamental reasoning being that NOTHING has really been fixed.....in the US or Euroland.
I'd like to see 1.7% - 1.8% on the 5 year to enter again.
Bottom line--this is a huge opportunity in the making.
What is the best way to invest in T-bills with a small portfolio? Is there an ETF with little slippage? What is the futures designation?
Zero commissions, and very tight bid/ask spreads. Use limit orders.
Do you have a symbol? That's what I was looking for . . . . Thanks, Boston.
Go to Fixed Income => search inventory => US Treasury.
You can choose whatever Bill/Note/Bond you like.
...where do bad folks go when they die...they dont go to heaven where the angels fly...
they go to a lake of fire and fry....
don't see em again til the _________________ [insert nonsequitor that rhymes].
day you die?
treasury bills fly.
Is this bullish or bearish joking aside?
In other words who knows?
Pre or post rumor?
hehe... sorry about that... ES
Don't quit your day job.
Yeah, obviously everything is. Until it's not.
Well, if you listen to the BlowHorn [CNBC] on a regular basis, it is uber bullish for stocks because it indicates fund flows out of fixed income and into "stawks." However, as fixed income guys know, that is true only for the time it takes to arbitrage the shit out of the last and dumbest algo in the room...which I think is down to about 100th of a second.
Capital context has been tracking credit deterioration for weeks now [not sure why they stopped posting to their site just when I was getting the swing of their strategy].
And as the market just proved to you, equity prices are very transitory, pricing in "Greece is fixed" multiple times followed by equity sell orders hitting a collapsing bid until some stub quote at 3 cents hits.
This isn't a market. It is a Ponzi scheme for the algorithmically inclined...so no rational thought about it is fruitful.
You should start calling it CornHole. More accurate.
"This afternoon, CornHole reported that a deal had been struck between the R's and the President, causing "investors" to lock arms in bullish bliss...until 3 minutes later, when the CornHole retracted the story, revealing to arms locked bulls that they were, in fact, in the embarrassing position of being in a circle jerk."
Hmmmm? Not sure it quite has that sweet ring to it...but I'll consider it, brother Cog.
Yours most sincerely,
Cdad...a bond vigilante
**The 30 year for the last few days has been doing what we call in my neck of the woods "the crappie flop." Per years of my experience, the next step is....death.**
I hereby salute you for the funniest thing I have read today!
Abby Joseph Cohen and Laszlo Birinyi were just on, and they said that only 3% of the dry powder they spoke of 3 months ago has been put into the markets, so they concluded that the markets could rise whatever the tally of 97% (dry powder left) x margin allowed.
Abby Joseph Cohen? The Queen of Pump? That's a very bad sign and the mark of sheer desperation. Look out below.
burrish, no blearish.
meanwhile gold and silver plunging, dollar whip sawing and the /ES steady as a rock.
what the fuck????????
A debt deal here in the US would cause a gold sell off. The PM's are being sold in anticpation of this. They may be a bit too optimistic.
Any pullback in Gold and Silver is just another chance to buy again. No matter what these globalists say or do concerning debt restructuring here in the U.S. or in Europe we will be back year after year listening to the same emergency bailout scenario of another country to flop. Its all just kicking the can down the road. There is not enough money on this planet to make the U.S. or Europe solvent. Pretty soon we'll be raising the debt ceiling not every six months, but every six weeks and then every six days.
Yes, just waiting for another big dip in Au...
The market can't decide if the physical market dictates the real supply, or if the paper market does.
All I can say is get physical while they are still in the dark.
great news! I've got my Chase Platinum MC handy and APMEX.com on the computer. max out, take possession, default...won't be long now.
Let me guess: Ben Bernank and his possee of financial terrorists?
Goatta get 'liquidity' from somewhere
Sell em all bitchez! Sell! Sell! Sell!
The headline reading algos really should observe a few second lag to accomodate conflicting information, me thinks.
Doesnt matter if they are faster than you if they react to the wrong info.
Probably some new strategy.
And the precious metals aren't going back up after the news the deal is BS.
They need to dive substantially so I can make my final load up.
Indeed papaswamp; I shall stay my hand in this madness. But what ultimately is dependable?
I would submit - that central banks will print money to bail their masters and temporarily sate the roiling masses.
Place your bets!
That would be my read as well.
BTFD, while there is still physical gold around.
Yeah, fancy that. A couple of days out from Options Expiry and, despite all the crisis meetings in Brussels and Washington and all the frantic bailing to keep the Euro and Dollar from sinking, any and all excuses (even erroneous ones) are used to smack metals down. It's almost like......someone wants them taken down. Spooky.
crisis ... what crisis ??
You're not complaining are you?
I like my silver cheap.
Is this risk free or what!
You're nuts to be trying to trade PMs, esp with any leverage. Take delivery--the war is won.
Even better, buy at brick and mortar store, pay in cash, watch your withdrawal and purchase limits so as not to raise any red flags, bury in yard, plant tree over buried stash.
Heard a guy say, a few years back, that he buried old car alternators all over his backyard to confuse anybody with a metal detector.
Yeah, baby, gots to spoof the vault.
scatter a ton of bb's to increase the noise, throw in some washers, sinkers, clad, and plated gold..
That's funny, but not as good as just not telling anyone you own it. PM stackers are still an exclusive club, they'll stay that way longer if we don't brag about our winnings.
I love the smell of burning bond markets in the afternoon.
Is that the smell of victory or defeat?
For most people it is the smell of defeat. Or is that 'de feet'.
Disposing of a corpse in a fireplace? "Da feet first I reckon"
is there any way to trade bond vol?
Well, I guess Bernanke, Krugman, and the rest of those Keynsian f***heads are right - the secret to perpetual prosperity is to just keep spending money you don't have. I always thought physical supply constraints might have some bearing on prices, but apparently not, apparently if you run out of money, just borrowing or printing more is all that's required, forever, without any consequences ever. Awesome, fucking awesome.
There has to be some kind of physical supply constaint. If they weren't using futures to suppress commodity prices, maybe there wouldn't be supply contraints. But the more they debase the currencies, the more they will tinker with indirect price controlls....and i've got to believe that shortages will come a'calling.
Aren't bonds supposed to be "risk-free"??? They lied to me at my MBA Finance class and books!!!
All my money is in Jinro soju.
I think I made a sound decision.
Good call. While the Koreans already drink as much as is physically possible, there should be a huge market in the U.S., with 100 Million newly impoverished, pensionless winos looking for something in the $1 a bottle range.
All the US makes anymore is old people.
Invest in whoever makes Depends and Viagra.
Actually, the group-entitlement blacks and mestizos are reproducing quite rapidly. Unlike the whites, they're getting paid for it.
We are not allowed to criticize them because they are special.
Guys, check EU bonds today! Periphery yields went down aprox 6-7-8% (like it matters!) but all core EU yields went UP 9-10% !!!
Think this is major sign to bond holders to start unloading US bonds... now NYT robos and algos will have to work overtime !!!
Makes sense on the core Euro yields, they after all are the backstops to the periphery now.
Stacking on debt without adding productive capacity kinda sucks.
Not sure why this people should unload from US bonds, especially since core euro is now LESS creditworthy.
In fact all you need is now for either spain or italy to come into play for the whole euro to be fucked over.
Previously each state's credit was seperate now with these shenanigans they are joined at the hip.
No way Germany can bailout spain or italy.
"Breaking the bond market(?)"
I don't know wtf you're looking at or what kind of chart you're posting but twos are off a whole 1/32 on the day, wait, a thirty-second and a quarter now. It's more of a snoozefest than anything at all exciting.
You're looking at the wrong end of the curve...or the short end where the Fed has already promised to fix the rates.
Manipulation via media.
depending on what kind of money you are gambling with ... if it's other peoples money its always bullish...
on 7/13, ESI broke out of pennant that began forming on 5/5...that strong breakout above 36 was followed by three more sessions of increasing prices, including 3 tests of the 38 level. imho today's Ag pullback should be seen as a healthy retracement while Ag consolidates
This was posted on one of the comments yesterday. The guy makes an excellent case about the manipulation in the PMs.
Jesse has already made his point about price action around options expiry. His charting is beautiful.
Saw that. very interesting
bonds, "risk free". Good one. +1
Off-topic: XAGUSD not trading at IB, anyone else is having the same problem? Is this silver confiscation ongoing?
If a deal is passed, the Dow could go up 1,000 points in a week.
Lots of stocks have formed huge bases, big breakouts could occur in many names.
Exhibit A is Enerplus Resources, which pays a 7% yield and has been consolidating for 6 months:
Is that what TZOO is doing? Forming a base? What, a subterranean base?
"subterranean base" lol
for the win
LOL crack me right up, TZOO forming a base, yea a Deep Underground Military Bunker apparently.
Just wanted to be the first to say, "Who cares..."
(Man... you gotta be quick on the draw around here. Oh, I get it. You have to scroll down to the post a comment box, slip in some gibberish, go back and read the article, and then come back to flesh out your dummy comment. You guys are slick!)
front runners, they are...
You have the markets all to yourself, Robo
9am special conference of Repubs tomorrow
Yep. Sure as heck sounds like The Party of Stupid is preparing to snatch defeat from the clutches of victory once again.
You can almost set your watch to it.
Yep. Boner, McConnell, Pelosi, Reed...all invested in the same Ponzi. Pelosi alone +$20 million since '08.
Confusing enough to put Barry The 0 off his golf game.
Is the gold and silver ponzi scheme about over as recovery 2.0 is emerging? Starting to feel bad for those of you who bet your life on a collapse. Good Luck to all!
Get your running shoes on, CosmicLib...you're gonna need 'em.
mini flash crash bond market today, crude yesterday.
Bernanke's computer crashed again, Bah...
look at 12:40 when he pressed BUY 1billion $ of each kind of bond...
Gold down $16: Check
XRT and IYR at 52-week highs: Check
TZOO down 33% but still up 250% for the year: Check
NEM still flat for the year, despite $1,500 gold: Check
Full control of financial markets by TPTB: Check
Wait but you said when gold drops, then equities drop.
Wow must nice being you just rearranging 'your call' daily to whatever happens to fit, after the fact.
Then act like you knew it was going to happen... check!
he is such a douche
The XRT is NOT at a 52 week high. Losing your touch, Robo?
I wish it was...because when oil takes out 100 tomorrow to everyone's disbelief [because no one can see it coming], just about every momo chasing lemming on Wall Street will suddenly realize that he is backwards on the macro trade...which makes for good selling.
We all know who that "person" is. That was the person of the year (per Times).
Its the Terrosits fault.
Not far from breaking the trendline from 80´s. And is that an inverse hs?
I think someone is. I think it may be both the democrats and the republicans together.
It sounds like a conspiracy theory. Perhaps it is. Unfortunately the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that a decision has been made by the government/finance community to save the economy by killing the dollar.
This is how I think it will go.
1) The deadline for the debt ceiling comes and goes with no agreement.
2) The bond market gets less and less stable as the government continues to stall on a debt ceiling increase. Eventually, the market for USA debt is essentially zero, at any interest rate.
3) Our debt is now unfinanced. The part of the economy driven by government spending shrinks. The overall economy collapses, bringing on deflation.
4) The Fed announces that it will fight deflation with money printing (called by some popular name) and pumps in so much money that the USA's currency starts looking like Zimbabwe's.
1) The USA has inflated its way out of all dollar-denominated debt.
2) The wage and price structure of the developed world re-align to that of China and the BRICs. The USA is now competitive when it comes to manufacturing
3) Jobs come back to the USA and Europe. Full employment is the norm.
4) China is left with the unpalatable choices of keeping the Yuan pegged to the dollar, thus wiping out much of the wealth of its domestic population, or letting the Yuan float, depressing its export economy. Either way, China's economic power, and by extension, its military power, is neutralized.
I'm sure the thinking is that if default is inevitable, it's better to have it happen now while the USA and Europe have military power, money and oil, rather than wait 10 years and watch China and the BRICs grow stronger and richer while the USA and Europe erode both financially and militarily.
Can someone tell me why I'm wrong here?
You presume the TPTB are on the side of the west.
and you presume the TPTB are on the side of the east? I presume TPTB are on the side of the TPTB and they are shitting towards any direction they possibly can. The more slaves are begging for their glare and grandeur and charity, the greater their mental and physical poverty, the more fun TPTB have to shit on them/us.
I'm assuming the TPTB have factions too. Even if not, imbalances leading to major social strife and the breakup of the USA as a unitary political entity may not be desirable if the entity in question has the world's largest quantity of nuclear weapons. From that point of view, saving the USA by trashing the dollar might seem a bargain.
Wages are $3 an hour and gas is $10 a gallon.
Full employment is unlikely as it will cost more to get to work than one makes in a day.
The only way your idea will work is if prices fall to meet the new wage. With a currecy that has been devalued enough to make 15 trillion look manageable, that is not gonna hapen.
Ian, you are much smarter than they are. "They" just proceed from crisis to disaster and back again. Other than day-to-day, maybe week-to-week, they don't have a clue...except to keep the Ponzi going as long as possible.
Yawn, you call that chaos? C'mon, this is a blip! Back up in yields in 94-95, now that was something!
Shouting fire in a closed theatre:
bonds down = stocks up.... looking for NEW 52 WEEK HIGHS any day now. un-fukin'-believable
Parliament of Crooks and Thieves and Liars:
hosted by the Dancing Ito Berflunkies jointed by the Dancing Czars,
joined by the Dancing alphabet media whores,
kicking the Cans of the Rears of the
Gang of Dancing Turncoats, and Liars.
Dancing Prancing, as capital is fleeing....offshore.
Fox POLL: 62% dont trust the Gummymint?
Of Fox viewers? Looks like they better ratchet up the message!
38 % are getting a check from the government. They do not trust their fellow citizens to continue to fund their checks.
The bid/offer is 1/4 wide for any kind of size, 1 point moves should not bother anyone. That is what happens when the largest buyer in any market steps away.
Time for Bill Gross to put down his summer reading fiction books and make comment on CNBC, isn't it? Did not he say bonds will plunge?
This chart is not accurate. I have no idea how you made it look like that but if you run it in Bloomberg you will very quickly see that the 2 year is not at 2.4% and hasn't been since 2008...
It hasn't even breached 1% in over a year. See here http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/
How did you fake the Bloomberg screen?
The chart shows change in basis points.
2.02 = +.0202 move in yield (as indicated at the top of the chart).
That makes a WHOLE lot of sense - I stand corrected.
Today, bonds had high correlation to natural gas with almost same volatility.
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