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Total Confusion Rages Over Greece Which [May|May Not] Get A New Bailout Package, [And|Or] [Kept|Kicked Out] Of Eurozone

Tyler Durden's picture


This morning the news wires are filled with the now usual contradictory, and full of lies propaganda about a Greece imminent [restructuring|golden age]. Since very likely all are wrong, we will focus on what appear to be the most credible ones: we will start with the Dow Jones story which has been official refuted by Greece, thus giving its extra validity. As Reuters reports: "News agency Dow Jones, citing a senior Greek government official, reported that Athens expects to receive a new aid package totalling nearly 60 billion euros . Greece denied it was discussing a new package..."It's certainly positive for peripheral sentiment and is assisting in the unwinding of some yesterday's safe-haven flows into Bunds," said Rabobank rate strategist Richard McGuire. Senior euro zone policymakers acknowledged on Monday that Athens will need a second bailout package soon to avert a disorderly overhaul of its debt obligations but rating agencies said more drastic measures may be necessary." Of course, this news comes out strategically and just in time for Greece to auction off a fresh 26-week T-Bill for €1.625 BN at a new record yield of 4.88% (compared to 4.80%) before an an even lower bid to cover of 3.58 vs. 3.81 previously. One can only imagine what a flop the auction would have been without the latest rumor (and even China appears to have given up on Greece: "Foreign take up in Greek 6-month T-Bill sale 34.2% vs. Prev. 41%, according to debt agency chief.") Bottom line as some trader summarized it: "It's very difficult to trade as there are so many conflicting headlines about a restructuring being the only way forward or not. Something will have to give." Exactly - here is a hint: a restructuring, in the city square, with a Molotov Cocktail... and damn soon.

More disinformation:

"There is an evident risk... that we have a second wave of dominoes with any Greek restructuring prompting market speculation Ireland and Portugal will follow suit."

Five-year Greek credit default swap prices indicate a 71 percent probability of default based on a 44.7 percent recovery rate, according to Reuters calculations from Markit data, while Irish prices show a 46 percent probability of default based on a 44.2 percent recovery rate.

Other short-dated peripheral bond yields fell with 2-year Irish bonds yields down around 15 bps to 12.79 percent after rising almost 1 percentage point on Monday. The Spanish 10-year spread over Bunds eased to 218 bps.

"222 basis points is the level to watch there," said the trader.

"We got to 224 bps yesterday before coming back but if spreads push out above 225 bps it could be the beginning of further widening, just technically," the trader said.

Elsewhere, Germany, now on the verge of saying Sheisse to this whole european experiment crap, is keeping the heat on:

There are signs that conditions for the payment of the next tranche of Greek aid in late May may not be met, a senior conservative German lawmaker said on Tuesday.

The lawmaker said it was not clear whether this was due to Greek actions or unrealistic assumptions.

Gerda Hasselfeldt, who chairs the group of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Bavaria's sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) in parliament, added no payment could be made unless Greece met the criteria.

And the cherry on top, is ECB's Bini Smaghi who once again implores Greece to pursue the E-bay alternative:

Greece is not in a position where it is unable to pay its debts and would be able to raise money to meet its commitments by selling assets, European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said on Tuesday.

"Some people say Greece is insolvent. Greece is a rich country, they just have to sell their assets to repay their debt. Why don't they sell their assets? Because it's politically difficult," he told a conference.

Expect more open lies, especially if Jean Claude Junker (...and with a name like that) opens his mouth to prevent a market "destabilization." The truth is that nobody knows anything and Europe is now scrambling to make it up as it goes along. (and for some actual facts, Greek March industrial production plunged -8.0% compared to -4.8% a year earlier).


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Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:31 | 1258476 MacedonianGlory
MacedonianGlory's picture

The Socialist, and totally corrupted, Gvnt of Papandreou will go to jail for it destroyed everything.

Greeks will trial these traitors

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:37 | 1258490 ivana
ivana's picture

hahaha ... after Papandreu family will than come Karamanlis family gov which will just continue same corrupt policies.
Same "changes" like past , how much?...., 60-70 YEARS!!!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:39 | 1258584 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

One question! Does Greece produce wealth?

Just like Portugal Greece will never be able to pay her debt.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:46 | 1258663 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Just like Ireland Greece will never be able to pay her debt./

That's the whole point of excercise, stabilization loans are not given to stabilize anything, rather, to put country into the debt slavery even further. Following default, country will be foreclosed on and assets sold out at fraction of their value. Has been done so many times before. Question of value production aside - every country does and Greece could probably sustain itself even if with lower standard of living.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:31 | 1258479 agent default
agent default's picture

The can shall be kicked until it can be kicked no further. The reasons to bailout Greece and the rest, has more to do with EU politics than anything else.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:43 | 1258500 uhb
uhb's picture


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:50 | 1258510 Construct
Construct's picture

That is right. EU is still having plans for about another 10 countries to join the EMU (Euro) soon. They will just continue with this till Germany is utterly broke and cannot bail anything out let alone feed itself. Then EU/EMU will all come crashing down. But we are not realistically there just yet.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:07 | 1258558 speedy
speedy's picture

Germany will not go broke until the bailed out countries default.  That is why non of the PIIGS will default and leave the euro.  That would be game over for the ponzi €uro.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:35 | 1258484 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


2 FOR 1!!


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:46 | 1258501 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

I hear Hillary Clinton is keen to buy the Greek island of Lesbos.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:55 | 1258706 n9lhm
n9lhm's picture

BOGO bitchez!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:38 | 1258486 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

Ok, why is there even a debate about this shit, when colonial outposts like Pakistan and Afghanistan don't even have a fucken economy, let alone one in a fiscal crisis.  but yet the funds flow.

The whole fucken world is insolvent.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:39 | 1258492 Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

All Greek citizens can sell a kidney...that'll do the trick.


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:54 | 1258513 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I think the Chinese would be pleased with a downpayment of this kind.

But we should offer the greeks a choice. THAT'S THE DEMOCRATIC WAY!!

3 pounds of meat or 5 liters of blood from their body.

And if they want a doctor present, they may do so at own expense.




Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:34 | 1258863 ivana
ivana's picture

Yeah but than we would see kidney bubble, than kidney price would decline, some futures + derivatives, hedging and "new financial kidney products" .... what do you get in the end: kidneys will end up in sausages & pate

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:42 | 1258493 ivana
ivana's picture

It would be nice ifsomeone could closely track this greek "confusion" and PR spins ... one would clearly see in the end who is who in EU bankster world, who are real "players" and who are just puppets, which bondhoders have priority etc etc

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:47 | 1258505 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

riots and protests

50b bailout by fall

riots and protests

70% hc within 12mths


depart eu within 6mths of the trim



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:52 | 1258514 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

one would clearly see in the end who is who in EU bankster world

Would you actually give a fuck if you knew that?



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:37 | 1258874 ivana
ivana's picture

not really but I like when "illuminati" get exposed in public ... than public know ... word spreads around ... anger accumulate as years go by ... than MIRACLE happens.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:59 | 1258945 ivana
ivana's picture

Like this one ... who gives a f... but nice to know

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:56 | 1258518 Construct
Construct's picture

It is just negative propaganda in order to push the Euro down witch the EU elite feel is 'overvalued'. When you have an economy that grows 1% and then you have a currency about 100% higher then other currencies then you pretty much have a 'dead economy'. there is just no demand for your goods/services.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:44 | 1258495 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

And here's S&P offering deep value to all their (non)existing customers:



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:54 | 1258520 e_u_r_o
e_u_r_o's picture

LOL, this article is well written :D

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:54 | 1258521 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Someone knocked and the Greek FM asked "Who is it?"...

"It is I MoFu"...

End of story...



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 07:57 | 1258527 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Actually, you could make a mediocre pop song out of this misery...

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:01 | 1258534 Rynak
Rynak's picture


Now imagine this state of "relationship" between China and the US....

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:11 | 1258575 TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

There is no way Germany will let the Greeks hang out to dry. They have too much to lose. On the other hand, Germany can't be perceived to bail profligate serfs out at the drop of a hat, so they have an incentive to keep people guessing until the last second.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:12 | 1258578 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

Today EU and ECB are fully aware that there is no solution. Only exit EURO and debt rescheduling will do the trick. But no EU leader can confront his electorate with this news. So some more pretend and extend. But free market forces are now fully aware of the situation and the will drive the EU to the wall.... Remeber Soros against the UK government !!!!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:21 | 1258597 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

This isn't about GREECE.

This is about 500bn Euro French and German bank exposure to the peripheral economies.

The question is why haven't french and German banks raised capital over the last year, in the same way US banks did in the spring/summer of 2009?

We all now Geithner is in there whispering "no haircuts" same as he did in Ireland. Must preserve Banks (and bonuses related thereto) is now first and and only priority.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:53 | 1258699 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Some more jawboning out of the Germans and €500B ≈ $700B (aka T.A.R.P.), no big deal, the US picked up the last round.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:15 | 1258782 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Its much bigger than that.  If allowed to fail, any large commercial entity or government that defaults will start dominoes falling and the world-wide fiat Ponzi will fail.  The central banks need to keep the plates spinning to prevent this.  That was the purpose of synthetic financial instruments, to create TBTF.  A sovereign debt default will lead to the next large-scale war as punishment and cover for falling out of line.  Its either debt slavery or death, take your pick.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 10:53 | 1259141 unununium
unununium's picture

> Its either debt slavery or death, take your pick.

Death to the TBTF's.  For the effect on regular people, see Iceland.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 08:31 | 1258618 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Total confusion over the first European domino falling....maybe/mabe not...which is why S&Ps are up, I suppose.  

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 09:42 | 1258881 DogSlime
DogSlime's picture

Someone's going to get stiff-ado'ed  :P

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