This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

August Total Non Farm Payrolls Come At -54K On Consensus Of -105K, Unchanged From July, Unemployment Rate 9.6%, Birth Death Adds 115K

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Private payrolls come in at +67K as Birth Death adds 115K, compared to just 6K previously, as U-6 rises from 16.5 to 16.7%, highest since April. Total Part time workers (all industries) increased by 401k from 18,157 to 18,558; part time workers for economic reasons increased by 331K. Workweek unchanged month over month at 34.2 hours, with average hourly earnings up slightly from 0.2% to 0.3%. 42% of the unemployed were out of a job for 27 weeks or longer, compared to 44.9% previously; average duration of unemployment at 33.6 weeks.

From the release:

Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-54,000) in August, and the unemployment rate was about unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment fell, as 114,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67,000).

The number of unemployed persons (14.9 million) and the unemployment rate (9.6 percent) were little changed in August. From May through August, the jobless rate remained in the range of 9.5 to 9.7 percent. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men (9.8 percent), adult women (8.0 percent), teenagers (26.3 percent), whites (8.7 percent), blacks (16.3 percent), and Hispanics (12.0 percent) showed little change in August. The jobless rate for Asians was 7.2 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) declined by 323,000 over the month to 6.2 million. In August, 42.0 percent of unemployed persons had been jobless for 27 weeks or more. (See table A-12.)

In August, the civilian labor force participation rate (64.7 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.5 percent) were essentially unchanged. (See table A-1.)

Establishment survey breakdown by sector:

Full release here

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:33 | 561485 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

1110 here we come - probably punch right through it!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:49 | 561530 Turd Ferguson
Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:56 | 561550 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Looks like we just hit a huge trendline on the ES going back to 4/26.  Am I off here?

Blow off top?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:00 | 561565 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I think so.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:59 | 561566 Spartan
Spartan's picture

On the dow the 50% retracement from the 2007 high to the 2009 low is 10350. We stopped dead at the 61.8% Fib in April and then came the flash crash. Lets see.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:33 | 561486 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

where did those additional 51k come from ?

hired by the BLS ?

or rehired for 2020 census work?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:33 | 561487 Robslob
Robslob's picture

And again the Squid a.k.a. Goldman Suks is the perfect anti-indicator...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:39 | 561498 rocker
rocker's picture

Yes but,  My Sex Life last night was  "Better than Expected"

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:40 | 561504 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

In that case, so are the fed.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:34 | 561488 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

"More coming"  You sound like the goverment promising more jobs with no plan.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:34 | 561489 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Very positive.  Rally on!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:36 | 561490 emsolý
emsolý's picture

total non-farm revisions for june (-221k to -175k) and july (-131 to -54k) were quite improved, somehow.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:35 | 561491 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Party time!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:36 | 561492 HEHEHE
HEHEHE's picture

Have to keep the sheeple happy before the long weekend.  They can always come back and revise the number later.  Nothing to sweat.  The drop will resume after next week.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:36 | 561493 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

harder for them to push more QE. should be slightly bearish for gold, metals

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:36 | 561495 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

i've always said, if you're going to lie, go big or go home.

complete mystery as to where these jobs are....complete mystery.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:42 | 561508 KTV Escort
KTV Escort's picture

answer: online fantasy football leagues

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:05 | 561580 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Potenitally world of warcraft.  All the players are allowed to have two jobs.  Perhaps the government has gone overboard with counting those since we are in the "new (on-line) economy"?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:56 | 561551 aurum
aurum's picture

its easy..birth death...its the go to job number sham.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:44 | 561705 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

They think they're onto something with this birth/death business. It is absolutely LOGICAL, isn't it, to ASSUME that HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of jobs are being created each month that the gov't has NO WAY of capturing in the statistics any other way than to just add them with NO BASIS other than to just make things appear better than every who's paying attention knows they are? The birth/death adjustment should never be a significant part of the statistics, NOT NEARLY 200% OF THE TOTAL PRIVATE JOBS CREATED! Of course the "market" soars on the fake news.

Everybody knows that the gov't stats have been BS for a long time, but they're taking this SHIT to a whole new level now.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:50 | 561730 The Dark Knight
The Dark Knight's picture

You cannot compare the 115k birth/death to the headline numbers since its not season adjusted like the headline numbers are.

I agree with you all that its a bit suspicous that this number was better than expected when other indicators pointed more to a flat number. Also very strange that it was the manufacturing sector that lost jobs when ISM employment was the only strong indicator during the month. Finally dont forget these numbers tends to be revised hugely.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:07 | 561774 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

It seems somewhat irrelevant that we came in "better than expected".  In the real world that would be, "We expected some growth, but nothing like this!!!"  Instead we get, "Well, at least we could have sucked worse.  Now go buy a house.  Recovery summer!!"

We all know the drill.  It's all good.  Until it isn't.  Coming soon to a theater near you.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:35 | 562063 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Yes you can.  It's simple, just subtract.  The government won't tell anyone how they compute the B/D numbers, and the survey numbers are already just an estimation with a large margin of error, so subtracting out the B/D gives another estimation with a large margin of error.  One is not more accurate than the other, no matter what the government wants you to believe, and we peons don't have access to the actual survey data so this is the best we can do to approximate a truer jobs number.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:24 | 561652 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

He told you, birth/death model=115,000.

 

So there were not new jobs.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:27 | 561663 tom
tom's picture

the 20k health care jobs are very plausible

more than half of this year's reported new jobs are temps

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:59 | 561753 still kicking
still kicking's picture

second life, the jobs there count in the real world too.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:37 | 561496 saulysw
saulysw's picture

That's certainly "better than expected"

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:39 | 561497 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Zhou is very happy! Buy Chinese solars!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:49 | 561531 wang
wang's picture

Leo, are you giving investment advice? 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:52 | 561539 saulysw
saulysw's picture

I think this is what passes for comedy around here.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:55 | 561547 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Relax, it's a tongue-in-cheek comment, but I am not surprised the figures came in better than expected. Not in the least.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:01 | 561572 aurum
aurum's picture

are you unsurprised at the "strength" in economy or unsuprised in the birth death massage?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:10 | 561590 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Bottom line: Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 67,000, after a revised 107,000 increase in July that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:13 | 561598 aurum
aurum's picture

a letter and a number for you leo - U 6

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:17 | 561616 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

aurum,

You can point to a hundred different terrible figures, but the private sector is slowly creating jobs. That's the key, and I hope this trend continues.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:26 | 561656 aurum
aurum's picture

leo, i personally hope your are right for everyones sake...but you are looking through blinders...how did we get to where we are and how are we getting to where we are going? (50 year span)...we are walking off a plank

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:30 | 561669 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Leo, you truly are a complete idiot.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:43 | 561709 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Have you looked in the mirror lately?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:08 | 561778 -273
-273's picture

Taraxias man, i agree with most of your comments, but with all due respect you just got your ass handed to you. Lol. Leo that was a pretty fucking funny comeback.

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:13 | 561790 aurum
aurum's picture

yeah i think leo was probably just standing behind him yet still visible when tax looked in the mirror...certainly he saw the truth.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:45 | 561712 dpr10
dpr10's picture

the BD adjustment is the private sector!!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:49 | 561723 hack3434
hack3434's picture

Ever heard hope is a fools (money manager) weapon?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:49 | 561724 Oso
Oso's picture

Leo - private sector is definitely not creating jobs.  Government garbage, it is very clear if u just walk outside in anywhere in the US and other countries, things are getting worse.  Equity markets are consistently moronic.  Trading them is fine, and you have been right about the slow grind up all of last year.  But dont confuse market action with reality.

 

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:57 | 561747 doe.john
doe.john's picture

The BLS probably cooks with more finesse than me, but if I just subtract the birth/death adjustment from the NSA figures, then make the same seasonal adjustment to the clean (no B/D) figures, I get -41,000 private payrolls, -163,000 total nonfarm.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:00 | 561757 doe.john
doe.john's picture

which is -37,000 total nofarm, +22,000 private NSA

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:11 | 561970 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

The problem is even if you take the 67K number at face value, it's still less than is needed to balance the number of people entering the workforce. Any number less than 150K means that more people are out of work.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:06 | 561585 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Did they find him or is this a picture of him in a non-extradition country?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:18 | 561620 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Doesn't matter.  He looks happy.  That makes me so.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:09 | 561782 ZakuKommander
ZakuKommander's picture

Leo, that's amusing, as you intended.

Folks, there's really no reason to have junked this, or even to be bitterly vituperative with Leo in this and other posts.  We're all here to dope out the system -- the game is fixed, but we're doubly intrigued with playing because we realize that it is -- and factoring in all points of view should be part of the "fun."

The tendency to "groupthink" on websites -- and drive away all opposing points of view -- is not a good thing.  Leo is not a troll; he offers posts with which we may disagree, but which are not unthoughtful.  

And think.  If one day the S&P hits 400 and gold reaches 5000, and the sun explodes, destroying the value of Chinese solars, won't you WANT to have Leo around to rag? 

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:44 | 561894 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Well said, and true. 

Leo's contributions may not fall into the mainstream of ZH thought, but he obviously spends time putting them together, includes data and research to back up his points, and offers a valid viewpoint.  Even if I do think he's mad as a hatter. 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:54 | 561916 jomama
jomama's picture

actually, i know i don't need more people/random outlets obfuscating the truth. even the common working american is starting to see the writing on the wall. i'm sure everyone here knows, China won't dump treasuries, because they still want to have it both ways.  they just haven't figured out how to yet.  needless to say, the threat of a move with that potential impact and a mathematically un-pay-able debt overhang, and any moron can see this carade is unsustainable.  getting stoked over these numbers is laughable and if he's serious, i question his sanity. i honestly think he's just trolling.  just look at all the photos he's posted on this thread.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:39 | 561499 cnbcsucks
cnbcsucks's picture

Ahhhh yes, better than expectations...the mantra continues.  It's like if you are going skiing and expect to break both legs, but you only break one, it's a victory. 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:17 | 561617 cbaba
cbaba's picture

+1  I LIKE THIS :)

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:33 | 561683 cnbcsucks
cnbcsucks's picture

Thanks...just trying to add a little humor in a world gone mad.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:39 | 561500 jbc77
jbc77's picture

Something doesn't seem quite right with these numbers. So unemployment bumps up to 9.6% as well. I think this is bullshit. Can't wait to see the revisions.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:47 | 561519 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

U6 is up also.
We have reached the stage I did not expect to see until 2011 which is falsifying the data. They started with the ISM this week. Elections coming and status quo must be maintained. Judging by this weeks ramp job we knew they were firing big illusion guns this week.
You did not actaully think they could allow the morts to gather and discuss in the last big gathering before elections with a Dow below 9,000 talking about how useless our politcians are and the protection of Wall Steet at their expense. Won't matter ....down below 10k soon.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:48 | 561527 dpr10
dpr10's picture

+10...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:58 | 561558 breezer1
breezer1's picture

eat the seafood , its great and safe.

have a great weekend and don't worry about the economy. spend spend spend.

trust me, we are back on track.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:06 | 561584 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Agree. Must maintain status quo at all costs lest the rabble spoil our vacation time in Aspen and St Bart's.

472K new weekly unemployment claims with a rise in the 4 wk MA. Yet we're cheering 67K new jobs in 1 month. Yipes.

Nearly 3 years into this and 9.6% unemployment, rising food prices, every commodity at boom time levels yet housing still sags. 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:13 | 561596 Chemba
Chemba's picture

cheering +67,000 "new private sector jobs", o/w +115,000 are ficitious "birth/death" jobs resident only in the cells of some BLS' analyst's excel spread sheet

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:40 | 561501 poopyjim
poopyjim's picture

This makes no god damn sense.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:57 | 561552 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

It wasn't mean to.  It was meant to jack the market.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:59 | 561754 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

 - it's getting ramrodded as we speak.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:40 | 561502 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Gold is going to take a serious hit here...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:43 | 561509 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

maybe, the smoke is pouring out of the Comex, they are three months in arrears on delivery. they are going to be out in full metal jackets this morning taking it down....do you have your popcorn?

wonder what bart and the gang at the CTFC are doing? On vacation already, watching porn? they certainly AREN"T on the job policing JPM.....Nope.

Its free money again for JPM....

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:51 | 561537 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

...so this presents a seriously nice dip to buy on. As others have commented, this report is just window dressing- - perception management ahead of Labor Day. As John Williams of Shadowstats.com always points out, if these numbers were calculated using the methodologies and statistical models the USG used back in the 80's and 90's, the rates would be over 20%.

But Mr. Williams must be wrong. Yeah, 'cause the job market is really taking off. C'mon now, who doesn't feel it?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:53 | 561544 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

yeah, we gotta get out there and spend, spend, spend....

you know what is amazing to me is the absolute blind spot that these guys seem to have about the peasants....they really don't grasp that the peasantry doesn't have any money to spend, spend, spend any more.......

anyway, its a triple whammy this weekend, no money, no job and a hurricane....why do i think business will be slow at the mall?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:33 | 561854 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

The peasants ran out of money a long time ago.

Now they've run out of credit.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:55 | 561924 jomama
jomama's picture

agreed, i say manipulate the price down so i can buy more.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:41 | 561505 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Total Nonfarm Birth/Death Adjustment +115

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:42 | 561506 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Part time employment (all reasons/private sector) up 401K. There's  your gain.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:47 | 561524 obelisks
obelisks's picture

So how are part time employees going to qualify for mortgages

which is surely what the real recovery is meant to be all about ?

And yet there they all are on Bloomberg wetting themselves as if

the problem is over.........unbelievable

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:51 | 561535 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

That's not the bigger issue; how do part time employees qualify for mortgage REFINANCING under HAMP and the other bogus programs? Only a fool would say "yup, you're working 22 hours at the Qwickie-Mart slinging Slurpees and beer for $7.25 per hour so we'll refinance your mortgage of $325,000 back to the current value of your home to $145,000 and everything will be ducky."

This nightmare is about to unfold even faster because the equity markets are not supporting reality.

Just like they did not in August-September 2008 right before they hit the shitter.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:00 | 561569 Pillage
Pillage's picture

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes re-
ferred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 331,000 over the
month to 8.9 million. These individuals were working part time because their
hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
(See table A-8.)

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:07 | 561586 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

But Pillage, that's BULLISH. Part time employment is what America is all about now.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:12 | 561789 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Absolutely.  Is there a way to find out how many part time jobs can be held by the same person.  My neighbors have FIVE part time jobs between the two of them.  So are they being counted as two full time employed persons, or as five employed?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:36 | 561865 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

That just gives them more "leisure time" in which to spend, spend, spend and boost the economy.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:47 | 562635 unemployed
unemployed's picture

   Nice Pillage,   I like the NSA numbers, only down 109K not up 331k, but then the full time employed down 261,000  which is  employed down 125,000 plus increase in part time  all reasons,  146,000.

  Dont think the damn SA and damn life/death models are in the NSA survey.

  To elaborate on your point,  part time economic reasons are up from 3.15 million in 2000 to 8.628 million in 2010.    Still fewer full time workers now than in 2000.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:42 | 561507 Criterion
Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:44 | 561510 cnbcsucks
cnbcsucks's picture

Futures up 1.3% on this shit???  Does anyone not get that we're still losing jobs...after almost $1 trillion in stimulus?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:48 | 561526 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I don't think it holds. I'm just sayin'.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:48 | 561529 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Nope. It's just "better than expected" and that's so rare these days that it's enough to rally on.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:53 | 561543 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Look at the 6 month chart of GS. Ain't gonna last.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:52 | 561540 Hansel
Hansel's picture

We are low expectation having motherf***ers.  A 67,000 private employment gain in a labor force of 135,000,000 is, apparently, an epic win.  Rally on.  The Dow is only up 500 points in the last 4 days.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:19 | 561622 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Hehe. The man with the big green button is hiding behind the curtain, waiting for any excuse to gun a low volume market. Bernanke said it: the Fed has a printing press. And they view the stock market as a reflection of their accomplishments. 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:44 | 561511 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Hows that Hindenburg Exorcist holding up?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:44 | 561513 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

NSA U-6 Improved but I think that's due to more people leaving the workforce. 27 weeks duration and longer had 323K drop off the roles. That was due to the first two weeks of the survey when the extended benefits were not in full force in August and hence they were not counted.

The BS (you insert the L, not me) numbers do not jeehaw with the weekly claims. I expect quiet revisions next month to over -125K. The next three reports will be POSITIVE because we can not have bad economic data before the elections, so expect them to juice the hell out of them.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:57 | 561750 aerojet
aerojet's picture

It's "rolls" not "roles"--you sound like an idiot when you make such stupid mistakes!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:14 | 561795 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

If you're serious, you look like an idiot when you use hash marks in lieu of punctuation.

/giving you the needle

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:46 | 561515 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Just bogus numbers as an excuse to raise rates on Treasuries so China continues buying them.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 15:21 | 562727 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

- Birth/Death adjustment accounts for double the payroll numbers, and we have no way of knowing how the government does the "calculation".

- Seasonal adjustment is nonsense

- Revisions could double or triple the numbers

Indeed, what a bunch of bull, which is necessary to push their agendas.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:46 | 561516 Rider
Rider's picture

We need them stop punking the numbers with the Birth/Death scam.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:47 | 561520 dpr10
dpr10's picture

birth/death ha::))maybe they adjusted birth/death numbers for last two months as well::))these guys would do anything to stay in power..

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:47 | 561522 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

LOL - howard dean says these #s are great.

new standards for the affirmative action presidency.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:54 | 562161 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

And he's gonna take these numbers to Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania and California . .

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:31 | 562601 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

funny!...though I think what Howlin' Howie said has been transliterated correctly as:

 "YeeeahhhggGGGHHHhhh!!!!"

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:47 | 561525 No Mas
No Mas's picture

What a world we live in.  The US continues to LOSE jobs, but not as many as someone expected, so it is a good thing.

How long can an economy LOSE jobs before it starts to show up in the markets?  Can this go on until no one is working?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:48 | 561528 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

Small business BOOMING as shown by birth death model lol

 

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/gap-up-to-s-1100-locked-and-load...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:50 | 561532 jbc77
jbc77's picture

This market is setting up for deep decline before the end of the year. Aside from getting gunned on bad data, we now cheer not losing as many jobs. Plus the +115K birth/death adjustment says it all. I suspect we're going to get some data before the year is out that corrects alot of the added in bullshit. This market has been and continues to be disconnected from reality.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:59 | 561559 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Yeah I'm with you we have some hangover coming. Nothing has improved fundamentally in out economy just the opposite. The markets are reliant upon massaged data and rumors. When the ceases to work it is panic time.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:50 | 561534 saulysw
saulysw's picture

The worst part : Jonny jizzpants might start posting.... *ugh*

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:36 | 561692 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Johhny Bravo IS posting, using his 'Leo Kolavkis' ID.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:51 | 561536 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

"But Jim, you promised!!!"

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:57 | 561553 mrgneiss
mrgneiss's picture

Silver is holding its own so far.

Maybe Blythe is in the Hamptons.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:58 | 561557 saulysw
saulysw's picture

This is like the M2 post. You have to get your scale sorted. If gold only loses $10, it's no big deal. I thought it might lose $20, or $40 on this news. It still might, mind you. But if it stays at $10, that's only a drop of less than 1%...and it'd still be only $20 from it's all time high.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:59 | 561564 Übermensch
Übermensch's picture

RT, this shows what a pathetic low life you are.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:02 | 561567 hack3434
hack3434's picture

Get off the crack pipe and the 1min charts. As exhilarating as it might be, we need to look at the bigger picture.   

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:16 | 561604 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Tyler --

It is a curiosity that a "contributor" whose only contribution is soft porn and a few charts has picture posting privileges.  A little quality control on your "contributors" is in order.

On PMs: Been waiting for a dip to buy more physical.  Today’s the day.  Thanks BLS for your BS payroll report. 

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:20 | 561625 Pillage
Pillage's picture

I second that

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:16 | 561994 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Hey, don't take away the soft porn.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:35 | 562613 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Keep Robot, please...and maybe add a bit of jiggle action to the icon.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:18 | 561619 Pillage
Pillage's picture

Ben Gram guy, enlighten us on how this post is not intended to inflame, troll.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:24 | 561651 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

That S&P graph almost mirrors the US debt/GDP ratio.

And Gold is back to $1245.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 13:57 | 562514 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Looking to demand 1330 to 1350.

All the central banks can do is try to get japan or switzerland to spit out enough to stop it or else their currencies will appreciate way way too much.

I don't think they'll cough it up.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:39 | 562097 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Thanks Robo.  Once again, as soon as you make one of these dumb posts the Gold and Silver markets do a swift about turn and head higher.  Silver may even break the $20 mark today.

Does this repeated pattern not make you feel even slightly dumb?  Not make you ever question whether you've got the wrong end of the stick?  No?  Must be watching to much CNBC these days then.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:51 | 561538 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I had a feeling that the FED would work their Majic on the Number.  They wanted to show a better than expected number no matter how they got to the number.

Does look like the fix job was the Birth, Death number.

The FED is worried about all of the Money being withdrawn from the Market and also worrying about people saving and paying down debt.  The Market was also getting a little to close to the Majic 10,000 Dow.

Everyone knows these numbers are made up from the minds of the Economists.  Will People put Money in the Market.  NO, NO, NO.  They know that as soon as they do the rug will be pulled out from under them.

How do you win with a one armed bandat?  Do not play.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:00 | 561568 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Yes, But the charts!! The Charts !! ( Sarcasm )

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:52 | 561542 10044
10044's picture

Soros shortin the shit out of GLD

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:54 | 561546 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

He's shorting his own long position? There's something you don't see everyday...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:57 | 561555 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

And you think he isn't hedged?!? We have no clue what kind of short positions he has on the GLD.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:00 | 561571 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Of course he's hedged. It's called the FX markets. That's where I would do it,  you can offset a 1-3% move in GLD with the huge swings we're seeing in FX today. I'll bet he's cleaning up there.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:06 | 561583 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Very true, and excellent point.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:42 | 561883 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

He's shorting his own long position?

I believe that's called "reflexivity".

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 00:25 | 563398 JethroBodien
JethroBodien's picture

Kind of like buying FAS and FAZ... why aint this fuker movin.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:02 | 561575 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

i don't think so. so its not taking the hit you hoped this morning?

me, i'm on my way to the bullion dealer/coin shop.....maybe it will take that hit by the time i get there...if not, this is still a nice dip to buy....

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:53 | 561545 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Did anyone really think that this number wouldn't "beat expectations"?  This game is getting pathetic.  I feel like BB is playing us like a piano.  You can almost hear him laugh as this number hit the tape.  BAH!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:57 | 561554 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

I'll trust the data a little more after the elections.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:59 | 561561 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:38 | 562617 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Me too...the 2012 elections.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 19:17 | 563424 JethroBodien
JethroBodien's picture

Me too... December 22nd, 2012  :)

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:02 | 561556 wang
wang's picture

Morgan's Glassman - says full employment <5%  will be achieved ten years from now

 

ECRI's Lakshman - says full employment will be redefined to a number greater than 5% and therefore will be achieved in less than 10 years  - Laks also said that the LLIs are indicating continued anemic growth

 

posted earlier that Rosie coming up on Bloomberg radio with Laks in the same  room

 

mms://a1531.l2489849876.c24898.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1531/24898/v0001/reflector:49876

 

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:59 | 561560 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

This kind of short-term news should be forbidden. If numbers are revised up or down 50% or even 100% one month later, and the reactions to them are completely irrational, they can only be used to manipulate sentiments.

Why not postpone bringing out the numbers by merely 1 month (so June reported in August or September), instead of reporting estimates that come straight from a darts board?

The narrow conclusion from June, July and August is that jobs have been shed, yet this market shot up 6% in three days... What did I miss, apart from having gotten confirmation after confirmation that the situation is worsening?

It's clear that it is artificial, but how they manage to do this again and again? Who keeps playing sucker in this game? If the Fed is directly buying stocks, futures or currencies, to whom are they gonna sell? Same for the banks... Or doesn't it matter whether they sell with or without a profit? Perhaps the only goal is trading break-even in the coming 5 years, until things finally improve?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:23 | 561642 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

It is all about conditioning the brain. It I about creating an illusion of intervention to slow the selloff pace and it is all about Ben trying to make the markets risk free. They spent tons just trying to steal some money from shorts but there is less money each time to capture and more costly to bring it up. Maybe they convert a few bears to longs if there are any bears remaining and then te steal their money up until NOBODY plays any more.
This is why outflows continue, gold creeps higher and every week volume diminshes. When the textbooks are written this intervention will be found to have Ben the most dangerous and irresponsible deciscion they could have made. The Entire stock market is now nationalized completely. It cannot function on it's own and will never be capable again because it has lost all credibilty. There is nobodys money left to take and just like with everything else the government interferes with all that will be left is a wasteland.
The only thing the markets needed was a stringent set of laws that apply to all. Now we have cowboys running around without any fear of reciprocity. Organized crime is all I can equate it to. The markets need a bonified Wyatt Earp to come in and bring record RICO charges against te IBs and potentially Fed regulators and politicians. Only then will trust return.
Here is a disgusting example just from today. Local NYC politicians was found today to have 60% of his stock holdings in comapnies that receive NYS funding. This crook has been running wild for decades. Killing projects like the West Side Stadium for his pals the Dolans because they were afraid of losing revenue to their MSG venue. I'm seriously considering going to Law School when I graduate..These kind if shenanigans make me sick to my fucking stomach.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:41 | 561704 taraxias
taraxias's picture

"When the textbooks are written this intervention will be found to have Ben the most dangerous and irresponsible deciscion they could have made"

Freudian slip? 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:00 | 561755 mojine
mojine's picture

"  bonified Wyatt Earp"

Picturing Wyatt with a huge strap-on coming ater them!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:06 | 561772 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I would only suggest law school if: (1) you already have a job lined up post graduation; (2) you do not have to borrow to attend; and (3) you have a specialized undergraduate/graduate degree that you can "fall back" on or that will differentiate you from your peers.  (not history or english).

I generally tell people to go to vocational school.  It's the best bang for the buck.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:07 | 561957 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Yeah a Bachelor in Business with a concentration in Finance & Economics. Unfortunately I was unaware that this education was unnecessary and Pom Poms were all that was required. Yes I did borrow but it was a State school so the tuition is very affordable for NYS residents.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:59 | 561563 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

the beatings will continue until morale improves

the manipulations will continue until the inevitable "Madoff Moment"

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:03 | 561576 newstreet
newstreet's picture

Hope all you Zero Hysterics who sold eur/chf and eur/yen down there are happy this morning.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:03 | 561577 Rylie
Rylie's picture

I have a question according to bloomberg.com

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-02/jobless-claims-fell-to-472-000-...

last week the US lost 472,000 job 6,000 less then the week before so

472,000 +47,8000  = 750,000 This is only for 2 weeks. so the US economy created approx. 700,000 job in the 15 days? or some very simple math X2 for the month 1.4 million jobs created in August?

I know the Death birth ratio has to be incorporated as well. like I said simple math

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:04 | 561578 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

this economy in a nutshell:

my youngest son graduated in june with physics degree

and got a job the next week:

waiting tables part time at olive garden.

An American story.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:16 | 561608 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Meanwhile all these brainiacs with no balls sit around and cheer 'rally!' like theyre not being destroyed. When the innevitable debt default comes what do they think theyll be trading then...beads and rocks? Bunch of idiots, I've thrown in the towel on america it deserves to be destroyed!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:18 | 562011 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

And this with an administration making it easier to borrow more money to go to college because "education is the way to get ahead" or whatever.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 14:45 | 562633 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Give the economy some time.

Obama will probably resort to throwing money at cold fusion or space elevators to mine the Van Allen belts for Unobtainium- so tell the kid to sit tight, live on left over bread sticks and think pure thoughts.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 00:32 | 563402 JethroBodien
JethroBodien's picture

No an American love story my friend.  Michael Moore would be proud.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:06 | 561579 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Last September unemployment was 9.7%, this September 9.6%. 

And scene.....on the recovery of summer 2010.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:16 | 561609 Overpowered By Funk
Overpowered By Funk's picture

Sept. 2011 -9.5%? I think I see a trend!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:30 | 561672 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

...with 5,000,000 fewer people in the work force (wink wink)

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:05 | 561581 yabs
yabs's picture

how long can this continue

the bears really have to get a grip and grow some bear balls

I think this is it for the bears

game over

we have had our chance and blown it

hyperinflation

socialize the losses it is

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:11 | 561593 snakehead
snakehead's picture

Happy daze are here again. Business credit card offers flood every mailbox, retail sales will be better than expected and whatever numbers need to be jacked up will be for Team Blue.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!