August Total Non Farm Payrolls Come At -54K On Consensus Of -105K, Unchanged From July, Unemployment Rate 9.6%, Birth Death Adds 115K

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Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:33 | 561485 HelluvaEngineer
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1110 here we come - probably punch right through it!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:49 | 561530 Turd Ferguson
Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:56 | 561550 HelluvaEngineer
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Looks like we just hit a huge trendline on the ES going back to 4/26.  Am I off here?

Blow off top?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:00 | 561565 johngaltfla
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I think so.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:59 | 561566 Spartan
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On the dow the 50% retracement from the 2007 high to the 2009 low is 10350. We stopped dead at the 61.8% Fib in April and then came the flash crash. Lets see.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:33 | 561486 whatsinaname
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where did those additional 51k come from ?

hired by the BLS ?

or rehired for 2020 census work?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:33 | 561487 Robslob
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And again the Squid a.k.a. Goldman Suks is the perfect anti-indicator...

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:39 | 561498 rocker
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Yes but,  My Sex Life last night was  "Better than Expected"

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:40 | 561504 scratch_and_sniff
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In that case, so are the fed.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:34 | 561488 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

"More coming"  You sound like the goverment promising more jobs with no plan.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:34 | 561489 Commander Cody
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Very positive.  Rally on!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:36 | 561490 emsolý
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total non-farm revisions for june (-221k to -175k) and july (-131 to -54k) were quite improved, somehow.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:35 | 561491 Boilermaker
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Party time!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:36 | 561492 HEHEHE
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Have to keep the sheeple happy before the long weekend.  They can always come back and revise the number later.  Nothing to sweat.  The drop will resume after next week.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:36 | 561493 NOTW777
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harder for them to push more QE. should be slightly bearish for gold, metals

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:36 | 561495 unwashedmass
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i've always said, if you're going to lie, go big or go home.

complete mystery as to where these jobs are....complete mystery.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:42 | 561508 KTV Escort
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answer: online fantasy football leagues

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:05 | 561580 Dr. No
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Potenitally world of warcraft.  All the players are allowed to have two jobs.  Perhaps the government has gone overboard with counting those since we are in the "new (on-line) economy"?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:56 | 561551 aurum
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its easy..birth death...its the go to job number sham.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:44 | 561705 Battleaxe
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They think they're onto something with this birth/death business. It is absolutely LOGICAL, isn't it, to ASSUME that HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of jobs are being created each month that the gov't has NO WAY of capturing in the statistics any other way than to just add them with NO BASIS other than to just make things appear better than every who's paying attention knows they are? The birth/death adjustment should never be a significant part of the statistics, NOT NEARLY 200% OF THE TOTAL PRIVATE JOBS CREATED! Of course the "market" soars on the fake news.

Everybody knows that the gov't stats have been BS for a long time, but they're taking this SHIT to a whole new level now.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:50 | 561730 The Dark Knight
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You cannot compare the 115k birth/death to the headline numbers since its not season adjusted like the headline numbers are.

I agree with you all that its a bit suspicous that this number was better than expected when other indicators pointed more to a flat number. Also very strange that it was the manufacturing sector that lost jobs when ISM employment was the only strong indicator during the month. Finally dont forget these numbers tends to be revised hugely.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:07 | 561774 ColonelCooper
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It seems somewhat irrelevant that we came in "better than expected".  In the real world that would be, "We expected some growth, but nothing like this!!!"  Instead we get, "Well, at least we could have sucked worse.  Now go buy a house.  Recovery summer!!"

We all know the drill.  It's all good.  Until it isn't.  Coming soon to a theater near you.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:35 | 562063 Hansel
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Yes you can.  It's simple, just subtract.  The government won't tell anyone how they compute the B/D numbers, and the survey numbers are already just an estimation with a large margin of error, so subtracting out the B/D gives another estimation with a large margin of error.  One is not more accurate than the other, no matter what the government wants you to believe, and we peons don't have access to the actual survey data so this is the best we can do to approximate a truer jobs number.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:24 | 561652 vote_libertaria...
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He told you, birth/death model=115,000.

 

So there were not new jobs.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:27 | 561663 tom
tom's picture

the 20k health care jobs are very plausible

more than half of this year's reported new jobs are temps

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:59 | 561753 still kicking
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second life, the jobs there count in the real world too.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:37 | 561496 saulysw
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That's certainly "better than expected"

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:39 | 561497 Leo Kolivakis
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Zhou is very happy! Buy Chinese solars!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:52 | 561539 saulysw
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I think this is what passes for comedy around here.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 08:55 | 561547 Leo Kolivakis
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Relax, it's a tongue-in-cheek comment, but I am not surprised the figures came in better than expected. Not in the least.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:01 | 561572 aurum
aurum's picture

are you unsurprised at the "strength" in economy or unsuprised in the birth death massage?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:10 | 561590 Leo Kolivakis
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Bottom line: Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 67,000, after a revised 107,000 increase in July that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:13 | 561598 aurum
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a letter and a number for you leo - U 6

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:17 | 561616 Leo Kolivakis
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aurum,

You can point to a hundred different terrible figures, but the private sector is slowly creating jobs. That's the key, and I hope this trend continues.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:26 | 561656 aurum
aurum's picture

leo, i personally hope your are right for everyones sake...but you are looking through blinders...how did we get to where we are and how are we getting to where we are going? (50 year span)...we are walking off a plank

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:30 | 561669 taraxias
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Leo, you truly are a complete idiot.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:43 | 561709 Leo Kolivakis
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Have you looked in the mirror lately?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:08 | 561778 -273
-273's picture

Taraxias man, i agree with most of your comments, but with all due respect you just got your ass handed to you. Lol. Leo that was a pretty fucking funny comeback.

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:13 | 561790 aurum
aurum's picture

yeah i think leo was probably just standing behind him yet still visible when tax looked in the mirror...certainly he saw the truth.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:45 | 561712 dpr10
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the BD adjustment is the private sector!!

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:49 | 561723 hack3434
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Ever heard hope is a fools (money manager) weapon?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:49 | 561724 Oso
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Leo - private sector is definitely not creating jobs.  Government garbage, it is very clear if u just walk outside in anywhere in the US and other countries, things are getting worse.  Equity markets are consistently moronic.  Trading them is fine, and you have been right about the slow grind up all of last year.  But dont confuse market action with reality.

 

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:57 | 561747 doe.john
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The BLS probably cooks with more finesse than me, but if I just subtract the birth/death adjustment from the NSA figures, then make the same seasonal adjustment to the clean (no B/D) figures, I get -41,000 private payrolls, -163,000 total nonfarm.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:00 | 561757 doe.john
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which is -37,000 total nofarm, +22,000 private NSA

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:11 | 561970 ElvisDog
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The problem is even if you take the 67K number at face value, it's still less than is needed to balance the number of people entering the workforce. Any number less than 150K means that more people are out of work.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:06 | 561585 Dr. No
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Did they find him or is this a picture of him in a non-extradition country?

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 09:18 | 561620 Commander Cody
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Doesn't matter.  He looks happy.  That makes me so.

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:09 | 561782 ZakuKommander
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Leo, that's amusing, as you intended.

Folks, there's really no reason to have junked this, or even to be bitterly vituperative with Leo in this and other posts.  We're all here to dope out the system -- the game is fixed, but we're doubly intrigued with playing because we realize that it is -- and factoring in all points of view should be part of the "fun."

The tendency to "groupthink" on websites -- and drive away all opposing points of view -- is not a good thing.  Leo is not a troll; he offers posts with which we may disagree, but which are not unthoughtful.  

And think.  If one day the S&P hits 400 and gold reaches 5000, and the sun explodes, destroying the value of Chinese solars, won't you WANT to have Leo around to rag? 

 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:44 | 561894 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Well said, and true. 

Leo's contributions may not fall into the mainstream of ZH thought, but he obviously spends time putting them together, includes data and research to back up his points, and offers a valid viewpoint.  Even if I do think he's mad as a hatter. 

Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:54 | 561916 jomama
jomama's picture

actually, i know i don't need more people/random outlets obfuscating the truth. even the common working american is starting to see the writing on the wall. i'm sure everyone here knows, China won't dump treasuries, because they still want to have it both ways.  they just haven't figured out how to yet.  needless to say, the threat of a move with that potential impact and a mathematically un-pay-able debt overhang, and any moron can see this carade is unsustainable.  getting stoked over these numbers is laughable and if he's serious, i question his sanity. i honestly think he's just trolling.  just look at all the photos he's posted on this thread.

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