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1110 here we come - probably punch right through it!
Looks like we just hit a huge trendline on the ES going back to 4/26. Am I off here?
Blow off top?
I think so.
On the dow the 50% retracement from the 2007 high to the 2009 low is 10350. We stopped dead at the 61.8% Fib in April and then came the flash crash. Lets see.
where did those additional 51k come from ?
hired by the BLS ?
or rehired for 2020 census work?
And again the Squid a.k.a. Goldman Suks is the perfect anti-indicator...
Yes but, My Sex Life last night was "Better than Expected"
In that case, so are the fed.
"More coming" You sound like the goverment promising more jobs with no plan.
Very positive. Rally on!
total non-farm revisions for june (-221k to -175k) and july (-131 to -54k) were quite improved, somehow.
Have to keep the sheeple happy before the long weekend. They can always come back and revise the number later. Nothing to sweat. The drop will resume after next week.
harder for them to push more QE. should be slightly bearish for gold, metals
i've always said, if you're going to lie, go big or go home.
complete mystery as to where these jobs are....complete mystery.
answer: online fantasy football leagues
Potenitally world of warcraft. All the players are allowed to have two jobs. Perhaps the government has gone overboard with counting those since we are in the "new (on-line) economy"?
its easy..birth death...its the go to job number sham.
They think they're onto something with this birth/death business. It is absolutely LOGICAL, isn't it, to ASSUME that HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of jobs are being created each month that the gov't has NO WAY of capturing in the statistics any other way than to just add them with NO BASIS other than to just make things appear better than every who's paying attention knows they are? The birth/death adjustment should never be a significant part of the statistics, NOT NEARLY 200% OF THE TOTAL PRIVATE JOBS CREATED! Of course the "market" soars on the fake news.
Everybody knows that the gov't stats have been BS for a long time, but they're taking this SHIT to a whole new level now.
You cannot compare the 115k birth/death to the headline numbers since its not season adjusted like the headline numbers are.
I agree with you all that its a bit suspicous that this number was better than expected when other indicators pointed more to a flat number. Also very strange that it was the manufacturing sector that lost jobs when ISM employment was the only strong indicator during the month. Finally dont forget these numbers tends to be revised hugely.
It seems somewhat irrelevant that we came in "better than expected". In the real world that would be, "We expected some growth, but nothing like this!!!" Instead we get, "Well, at least we could have sucked worse. Now go buy a house. Recovery summer!!"
We all know the drill. It's all good. Until it isn't. Coming soon to a theater near you.
Yes you can. It's simple, just subtract. The government won't tell anyone how they compute the B/D numbers, and the survey numbers are already just an estimation with a large margin of error, so subtracting out the B/D gives another estimation with a large margin of error. One is not more accurate than the other, no matter what the government wants you to believe, and we peons don't have access to the actual survey data so this is the best we can do to approximate a truer jobs number.
He told you, birth/death model=115,000.
So there were not new jobs.
the 20k health care jobs are very plausible
more than half of this year's reported new jobs are temps
second life, the jobs there count in the real world too.
That's certainly "better than expected"
Zhou is very happy! Buy Chinese solars!
I think this is what passes for comedy around here.
Relax, it's a tongue-in-cheek comment, but I am not surprised the figures came in better than expected. Not in the least.
are you unsurprised at the "strength" in economy or unsuprised in the birth death massage?
Bottom line: Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 67,000, after a revised 107,000 increase in July that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today.
a letter and a number for you leo - U 6
You can point to a hundred different terrible figures, but the private sector is slowly creating jobs. That's the key, and I hope this trend continues.
leo, i personally hope your are right for everyones sake...but you are looking through blinders...how did we get to where we are and how are we getting to where we are going? (50 year span)...we are walking off a plank
Leo, you truly are a complete idiot.
Have you looked in the mirror lately?
Taraxias man, i agree with most of your comments, but with all due respect you just got your ass handed to you. Lol. Leo that was a pretty fucking funny comeback.
yeah i think leo was probably just standing behind him yet still visible when tax looked in the mirror...certainly he saw the truth.
the BD adjustment is the private sector!!
Ever heard hope is a fools (money manager) weapon?
Leo - private sector is definitely not creating jobs. Government garbage, it is very clear if u just walk outside in anywhere in the US and other countries, things are getting worse. Equity markets are consistently moronic. Trading them is fine, and you have been right about the slow grind up all of last year. But dont confuse market action with reality.
The BLS probably cooks with more finesse than me, but if I just subtract the birth/death adjustment from the NSA figures, then make the same seasonal adjustment to the clean (no B/D) figures, I get -41,000 private payrolls, -163,000 total nonfarm.
which is -37,000 total nofarm, +22,000 private NSA
The problem is even if you take the 67K number at face value, it's still less than is needed to balance the number of people entering the workforce. Any number less than 150K means that more people are out of work.
Did they find him or is this a picture of him in a non-extradition country?
Doesn't matter. He looks happy. That makes me so.
Leo, that's amusing, as you intended.
Folks, there's really no reason to have junked this, or even to be bitterly vituperative with Leo in this and other posts. We're all here to dope out the system -- the game is fixed, but we're doubly intrigued with playing because we realize that it is -- and factoring in all points of view should be part of the "fun."
The tendency to "groupthink" on websites -- and drive away all opposing points of view -- is not a good thing. Leo is not a troll; he offers posts with which we may disagree, but which are not unthoughtful.
And think. If one day the S&P hits 400 and gold reaches 5000, and the sun explodes, destroying the value of Chinese solars, won't you WANT to have Leo around to rag?
Well said, and true.
Leo's contributions may not fall into the mainstream of ZH thought, but he obviously spends time putting them together, includes data and research to back up his points, and offers a valid viewpoint. Even if I do think he's mad as a hatter.
actually, i know i don't need more people/random outlets obfuscating the truth. even the common working american is starting to see the writing on the wall. i'm sure everyone here knows, China won't dump treasuries, because they still want to have it both ways. they just haven't figured out how to yet. needless to say, the threat of a move with that potential impact and a mathematically un-pay-able debt overhang, and any moron can see this carade is unsustainable. getting stoked over these numbers is laughable and if he's serious, i question his sanity. i honestly think he's just trolling. just look at all the photos he's posted on this thread.
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