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Total NSA Unemploment Claims Hit Another Record
Total Non-Seasonally adjusted insurance claims (consisting of Initial, Continuing and EUC claims) hit another record of 11,268,100. Make of this data what you will. We are confident the objective, mainstream media will find a way to spin this favorably (it can only go down from here... of course, unless it doesn't).
And a long term chart, compliments of CreditTrader
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Doesn't matter. The only number that matters is the BLS U-3 number.
Bingo.
What are we thinking is the over/under on that? I'm picking +85K and thinking it might be slightly over. How that jives with the NSA UE number is a complete mystery but the MSM will never, ever demand that the administration attempt to square that circle.
I'll take the over.
so...what, short GLD?
I'll take the under and predict flat +/- 10K since I'm sure if the number was higher, GS would have front run it today by buying massive quantities of futures. Didn't happen.
It matters one heck of a lot if you don't have a job.
The politicians can do their Kabuki dance with their statistics all they want. If you can't put food on the table, you're going to get mightily pissed off when smoke is blown up your ass.
I'm looking forward to the next elections.
I don't have T.V. I watched Fox News and MSNBC for the first time in 8 years yesterday. Previously, I had hope that Americans were smart enough to manage this situation, and I thought that eventually we would wake up to how we're being screwed.
After having watch 15 minutes of Glen Beck, first I showered until the water ran cold. Then I tried to drain my liqueur cabinet. Then I cried for a day, called a suicide hotline, and reached acceptance.
Point being: I no longer think we'll get out of this.
Why drain the liquor cabinet?
I am long on liquor. it will come in handy in the coming apocalypse.
Bet you love Chris Matthews and that other douche, Keith Olberman.
Troll?
We can get out....
If over 70% of Americans fall back in love with the founding principles and self-sufficiency and turn on Leviathan and dismantle all of the entitlements we can't pay for and change from an attitude of "if we get to 51% voting our way, we can vote your rights and your private property away from you"
On second thought, you're right. We're boned!
The next election? You must be convinced that the Republicans don't have blood on their hands. I'd say both parties are equally complicit in crashing the world. Democrats are tax and spend, while the Republicans are borrow and spend....huge difference....not! And then the average American...living for today, living on credit, stars-in-our-eyes, the sky-will-never-fall.
I think the Repugs have a good chance to make some gains. This will slow down the Obama Express, a good thing. If only the difference between the parties was real. WRT war and Big Biz, they both want the same thing, that infernal new world order crap. I am starting feel like it must have felt to the Jewish people in Germany back in the 30s. The government is increasingly intrusive into our lives so that we may all be more "safe and secure". The government is the real source of problems. It offers "shock & awe" solutions -- not those really needed like freedom, education, and non-drug based health-care for everyone.
Off topic: the answer to a question asked in another ZH post about unemployment.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/massive-jump-in-emerg...
The miracle of the printing press allows millions more (every day!) to live without having to work. It is a truly a marvelous revolution of the 21st century.
Hey, it's part of a high fiber diet! (That's what I say about FRNs in response to people who say, 'you can't eat gold').
If they could fomulate the binders and ink with glucose and protein, we may have a winner!
Soylent Green?
Nice "Soylent Green" reference. That movie is underappreciated.
I truely love your avitar.
Ironically, you CAN eat gold, in the form of gold leaf, if you're at a sufficiently pretentious and expensive restaurant. Not that it does anything beneficial for you, but neither do FRNs.
I regularly eat gold in the form of flakes suspended in Goldschlager... mmm mmm good, think i will have me one. Or two..
I can wipe my ass with FRNs. Try doing that with gold, bitches!
I was once in a back country outhouse and forgot my toilet paper. Lets just say I spent 11 dollars for that messy wipe. Dollar bills are not absorbant and are horrible to use. Eventually I had to finish up with some leaves. So I would say that FRN's are not even good for toilet paper.
Could it be in our perverse black is white and up is down world that we do get a big positive jobs # (I'll take +150k) and the market finally sells off hard (50pts for 10 minutes before continuing it's rise to all time new highs) on the fear of impending rate increases? Is it possible the market can go down...ever again?
The answer is : No !
I expect Congress to vote a resolution that the market is never allowed any more to go down (sarcasm)
I think Becky and Leisman will make out tomorrow on air out of excitement over U3
Well, let's just store that image away for a later nightmare thank you very much!
A good magician never tires of performing the same trick over and over again because there's a sucker born every minute. Er...... sorry. I mean there are new ways to present old tricks to keep the audience captivated and enthralled.
Damn, the claims ramp from Nov is where the Indexes have been moving sorta sideways...are they thinking it peaking or distributing and selling. a parabolic continuation would bring claims to 15 or so million.
Finally a hockey stick "You can believe in".
Yep...better than a 2X4 at Home Depot.
Good God man!! it is...
It's Dr. Michael Mann's Hockey Stick back from the dead again...
Thank god the census is coming along to soak up a half million+ in early '10. However, the other side of that one could be a little rough in June or July when those folks are no longer needed.
regarding the EUC, Emergency Claims Number.... realize that this claims bucket does not usually exist -- which is why many are not so familiar with it (ie Liesman etc)... it's created when the job losses are i) massive and ii) folks don't find work. first you claim benefits, when that runs out, you claim extended benefits, then, if you STILL don't have a job, if it's made available, you claim EMERGENCY benefits...
in this recession, EUC did not exist until mid-2008... that's to say that it was at ZERO in mid-2008.... by the end of 2008 it was at 1.6mil people... at the beginning of Nov 2009 it was at 3.6mil... it's at 5.1mil at the latest reading, on 12/18 (~2 week delay in these numbers as I understand)... that's 1.5mil people added in 6 weeks.
and it's getting worse: ONE WEEK AGO, the 12/11/09 EUC number was released at 4.4mil... today's reading came in at 5.1mil for 12/18, and the increase reported was +235k...again: FOR. THE. WEEK. ... but that doesn't add up to the increase... oh yea, there was the +460k revision to the 12/11 week... nearly 700k people added on the week from 12/11 to 12/18.... chart it if you're on bloomberg: {INJCEUC <Index>} it's getting STEEEP.
the EUC bucket is the 'last stop'. with 1 job for every 6 people looking (perhaps worse at this point?), it will only get bigger. this week was the first that EUC was higher than Cont Claims. and it will become more massive, even as media focuses on the initial claims, assuming that, like in OTHER recessions, people eventually find work... not this time.
Just think - once we get to zero new claims initiated - the spin will be that there is no unemployment! Marvelous! No?
Right! i.e., "Then let them eat jobs...."
So once they fall off the EUC bucket...they officially no longer exist? Any idea to tell how many are exhausting EUC on a weekly basis?
hambone, I honestly don't know how/if/when folks fall out of EUC... no one looks to be leaving when I eyeball the chart... 3.6mil to 5.1mil in 7 weeks..
suffice it to say, none of these data, nor the programs themselves, were made for recessions this long/deep/severe with these mass amounts of job losses and - most importantly - length of unemployment...
we're in uncharted waters... which makes most usual data (intial/contimuing claims; UE rate etc) faulty, and standard interpretation just plain WRONG.
Just check the crime statistics.
Look under the bread stealing column.
And of course, some of us never even get into the EUC bucket. I've been unemployed for 2 years, but never have been in the statistics as I resigned from my last job (for good reason) and therefore am not eligible for unemployment benefits. If you don't collect benefits, you might as well not exist as far as BLS is concerned.
Probably not too many in my situation, I'll admit, but we non-persons are out there.
"We're here. We're non-persons. Get used to it."
all small business owners are in this category as they are ineligible for unemployment benefits....there are more of you than you think.
HUNGRY PEOPLE RIOT
Stim bill 2 has 30 more weeks .so I guess it will be EEUC 2x
My brother has been collecting unemployment for 14 months and says he's eligible for another 47 weeks. Go figure. Probably the only thing stopping a revolt is that too many people are dependent on Government handouts. You just don't revolt against the hand that feeds you and buys your beer.
the max amount that can be collected under current programs is 99 weeks. that is a fact.
i'm sure it will go up soon once the congress is back in session. most of what i read is another 6 months but i suspect the Dems will push it out past early november.....
Well, if we don't get a positive print on employment (just in time for the 'State of the Onion' address - how convenient), it won't matter. The date of the annual sideshow has a sliding timeframe, it can take place "either late January or early February". Obamao may have to wait until this months' numbers come out the first week of February for his "Mission Accomplished" moment. No matter what, a positive number will materialize somehow.
I serously think they are reading this chart upside down. Will someone please flip the chart over.
I am putting a 10,000,000 TJ I+C+E (ALL NSA) hat on my desk's Obama Chia-Head.
...unexpectedly...
I'm just waiting until they fake the numbers for so long that they put out a report showing more jobs than there are people.
Pretty soon kids will be able to major in unemployment in college. They can master the most efficient ways of gaining government entitlements, earning millions more over the course of their careers than the simple HS unemployment diploma holders.
"Pretty soon kids will be able to major in unemployment in college."
I like that. But this opportunity will be realizable only by those that earlier have built exciting careers in employment areas advertised as a replacements for those previously out-sourced to India and Ugabugia. And by all means it will have been necessary that they have gone into hock to some loanshark representing the interests of elitist academicians with six figure salaries so as to get them there. Then, and only then, will they be considered worthy of a an unemployment major. We don't take just anybody, you know.
I like it. Let's call this Too Dumb to Fail.
Somewhere in there, 3 million jobs were "saved or created"....
Incidentally, the number of unemployed is almost equal to the number of illegal immigrants with jobs in the U.S.A.
Coincidence?
Hey Bates, where do you get the number for the # of illegal immigrants with jobs in U.S.? Is there any solid stat on this ?
He called your parents
Lots. You've never heard of google.com apparently.
Last time I looked, there were about 12 Million illegals in the U.S.. And, contrary to the stereotype, those are mostly non-farmworkers. Farmworkers make up about 1 Million. The illegals have moved up the food chain into taking away higher paying jobs.
Try looking at the Congressional Budget Office's reports for California, alone. The illegals are costing Cali about $20 Billion, which is a huge chunk of their deficit. Since Cali won't turn over illegal prisoners to the Feds, that's a cost of $1 Billion per year alone.
Illegals are great for corporations who want to decimate the middle class. Wake up, dude.
Rumor has it that the Gov will print a large, much improved non-payroll # tomorrow a.m.. This is plausible since the statisticians have all been fired and Tim updates the jobless spread sheet now. Look for the Dow to continue to the moon.
He uses Turbo Tax...
"Better than expected"
Un-Spun Unemployment - Inferences
http://tinyurl.com/yauf5tw
crappy job numbers = more stimulus?
Just in time to pitch it at the STOU.
I could totally be a senior strategist!
I swear to God, if Obama mutters the phrase, "The State of our Union is strong", I will bitch slap him back to Africa.
+ 10
It doesn't what BLS reports tomorrow. The markets will move in whatever direction that it wants.
My long-term theory is that employment stats will eventually get decoupled from the movements in the financial markets. Employment numbers were important when the middle class was the economic back-bone of this country, but the middle class is slowly eroding away, so its becoming less and less central to economic well being of the country.
And for those that are not aware, "middle class" is actually an American phenomenon. Most other countries don't have a middle class. In other placed you are either rich or poor and that's where America is heading.
It's the hockey stick generation. New hire adds are also down so expect January figures to continue up. With so many qualified candidates showing up to interviews, employers are now looking for reasons NOT to hire you. Credit score, place of residence, breath........
Stupid question about the number TD gives: 11,268,100
Which specific blocks of the weekly claims report are summed to get that number?
Well, I managed to answer my own question. Looks like the 11,268,100 comes from Jan. 2 Initial Claims (NSA) + Dec. 26 Continuing Claims (NSA) + Dec. 19 EUC.
New question: why aren?t "Extended Benefits" recipients included in the total? Is it because those individuals are counted in Continuing Claims (since "Extended Benefits" are 50% state funded and 50% federally funded) ?
Maybe it will be a legitimate number tomorrow, more in line with ADP and Trim-Tabs. I kind of figured they would run the straight-man Gibbs - GS routine like they did last month = Gibbs talking up a high UE number that the administration was "prepared" for; even the market 'cooperated' and orchestrated a small sell-off to support the scheme.
Then low and behold on Friday, everything was "better than expected" even getting a decrease on the UE rate even while still losing jobs.
I guess you can only run that scam maybe once or twice before people wise up. I wonder if they have a number allocated for it? Like, "it looks like we are going to pull a #5 today Timmy and Ben; Robert knows how to set it up".
My wife is trying to file for unemployment in Colorado. The State's web site for filing the claim won't load the initial claim form - overloaded, even at 10PM. Tried calling the number indicated when there's problems with the on-line form - busy all day long. Bottom line is it's very difficult to file for unemployment - sure way to keep those initial claim numbers down.
bingo, I had to call everyday, many, many times, for 2 weeks, to get a human, lots of cell phone minutes.
You are getting closer to the core of the Matrix!
I got laid off; filed for and am receiving checks 2X month. Also, with Obamanomics, I got COBRA for the family at $40 more than I was paying for the same coverage while I was working. Normal COBRA would have been$1000/mo. more. Add to that about $300/in food debit cards per month , you can do OK unemployed as long as you have a place to live. File a Chapter 7 and it will take them 2 years to foreclose, and get to a sheriff sale, so you've got a house for almost as long as you have unemployment checks.
Find someplace to work for cash, and you're now golden. I can get used to this socialism!
But alas, my work ethic still forces me to look for real work. Sent out 2500 since resume's since RIF date; got 1300 NO WAY's and the rest didn't respond. I'm a boomer, and age discrimination is in full force.
Film at 11.
Flim flam at 11:30
I'm a Democrat of the Democratic Party, and I do not agree with our Democratic Party representatives in Washington.
Our Democratic Party has abandoned many of its older principles and ideals, and we as Democrats are extremely dissatisfied with the "Change We Can Believe In" politicians and their obsession with making our Nation more like the Europe our founding fathers had left behind.
Most Democrats already know their pleas to the Democratic Party are only being answered by repeated insult and injury. Many of our elected officials are no longer thinking of themselves as being our representatives, but instead refer to themselves as leaders in the true form of tyrants.
To all intents and purposes, our elected representatives within the Democratic Party are no longer following in the time-honored footsteps laid down by the founding fathers of our great Nation. In fact, we as democrats see our elected representatives within the Democratic Party abandoning the principles and values as set forth within the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution of the United States.
Furthermore, many of our Democratic Party representatives in Washington are tainted by corruption, and the liberals among us are supporting socialist radicals with their agendas based on moving our Nation deeper into a socialist form of government. This is a real threat to everything we hold sacred in America, and they are gaining evermore control over our Democratic Party, our Nation, and the American people.
Despite this, we as Democrats can restore control of the Democratic Party back to the party members. All we need to do is provide our support in making sure donations are made directly to patriotic and honorable Democratic Party candidates that are not corrupt or socialists.
So please help spread the message to everyone of our fellow Democrats. Also, don't forget to contact and request the Unions and other outside contributors to follow our lead as patriotic Americans.
Thank you, and God Bless America.
Eric Pearson, senior administrator for Democrats seeking reform with the Democratic Party.
Web site: http://www.democraticreformparty.com